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17 January 2021
9 min read

There's no vaccine for market amnesia

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I saw this on LinkedIn today...

Source
'Barring any severe shocks, 2021 is likely to be a year of reaccelerating growth.'

Let's take this quote into a different context.

Imagine it's January 14th, 2020.

'Barring any severe shocks, 2020 is likely to be a year of reaccelerating growth.'

Do we see how dumb that sounds?

This will begin our chat today on why the market has amnesia in our view, clearly with the first point being that people have forgotten about tail risk...

Y'know, those events that you think have an impossible chance of happening when you model

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