Yep, we're going with Biden BOOM.

Some might call it a strong equity market performance on the back of a Presidential inauguration.

Those people are boring.

They might also be bond traders (not sure if there's a connection...)

Bonds have not joined the risk on inauguration party yet, while everyone else is at least four drinks in.

(Note to any journalists reading: Biden Boom > 'Stimulus Hopes' - You're welcome)

Market Snapshots


Australia reported a drop in the unemployment rate (to 6.6%) overnight as the jobs recovery takes shape.

It's definitely positive that unemployment numbers are falling, but hours worked seems to have flat-lined...

Full time employment is still well below the pre-Covid levels.

Still got a job, but working less hours...

And government support cannot remain in place forever (Don't UBI me)...

Biden revokes KXL permit in blow to Canada's oil sector, Ottawa disappointed

The move represents another set-back for the beleaguered Canadian oil industry, in particular its energy heartland Alberta, kills thousands of jobs, and marks an early bump in Biden’s relationship with Canada, a key trading partner.
Keystone XL, owned by TC Energy Corp, is already under construction in Canada, and would carry 830,000 barrels per day of Alberta oil sands crude to Nebraska.
But opposition from U.S. landowners, Native American tribes, and environmentalists has delayed the project for the past 12 years and Biden had long pledged to scrap the permit.
“While we welcome the President’s commitment to fight climate change, we are disappointed but acknowledge the President’s decision to fulfill his election campaign promise on Keystone XL,” Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in a statement.

Biden rolls back Trump policies on wall, climate, health, Muslims

Aides said the actions the Democratic president signed included a mask mandate on federal property and for federal employees, an order to establish a new White House office coordinating the response to the coronavirus, and halting the process of withdrawing from the World Health Organization.
Biden signed a document to begin the process of re-entering the Paris climate accord and issued a sweeping order tackling climate change, including revoking the presidential permit granted to the contentious Keystone XL oil pipeline.
Among a raft of orders addressing immigration, Biden revoked Trump’s emergency declaration that helped fund the construction of a border wall and ended a travel ban on some majority-Muslim countries.
The Day One plans were just the start of a flurry of executive actions Biden would take soon after entering office, said his press secretary, Jen Psaki.
“In the coming days and weeks, we will be announcing additional executive actions that confront these challenges and deliver on the president-elect’s promises to the American people,” Psaki said.
Further actions would include revoking the ban on military service by transgender Americans, and reversing a policy that blocks U.S. funding for programs overseas linked to abortion.
On the economic front, Biden asked the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to extend a moratorium on evictions until the end of March, and the Department of Education to suspend student loan payments until the end of September.

China Demand Lifts Japan’s Exports to First Gain Since 2018

Japanese exports gained in December for the first time in just over two years, with shipments to China climbing even as the pandemic resurged in other key markets.
The value of overseas shipments rose 2% compared with a year earlier, snapping a 24-month losing streak that came amid trade wars and the coronavirus, the finance ministry reported Thursday. Economists had predicted a 2.4% increase.
Gains were led by exports of plastic, non-ferrous metals and equipment for making semiconductors, while car shipments declined.

(The Bank of Japan announced no changes to monetary policy overnight)

Just in case anyone was still in doubt that Bitcoin has gone institutional...

BlackRock Takes First Step Into Crypto Exposure in Two Funds

BlackRock Inc. is adding Bitcoin futures as an eligible investment to two funds, the first time the money manager is offering clients exposure to cryptocurrency.
The world’s largest asset manager filed updated prospectuses for a pair of funds including cash-settled Bitcoin futures among assets they’re permitted to buy.
The filings for BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities and BlackRock Global Allocation Fund Inc. appeared on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission website Wednesday.
Derivatives using cash settlement do not require delivery of the underlying asset.
BlackRock, which oversees $8.7 trillion, is signaling a new willingness to test the waters of Bitcoin. Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink said in a 2018 interview that the firm’s clients weren’t interested in owning crypto. But more recently, executives have shown an increased openness to the asset, which is sometimes compared to digital gold.

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JP Morgan noted yesterday that flows into the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust would 'likely need to sustain the $100mn per day pace over the coming days and weeks' for a breakout above $40,000 to occur...

Grayscale bought over 8,000 Bitcoin yesterday...


Let's do the maths...

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Oil slips on surprise rise in U.S. crude stocks

Oil prices fell on Thursday after data showed U.S. crude stocks unexpectedly rose last week, reigniting worries about pandemic restrictions cutting into fuel demand.
“Oil prices look a tad vulnerable to potential profit-taking after U.S. crude stockpiles bearishly rose 2.56 million against consensus draw,” Axi chief market strategist Stephen Innes said in a note to clients.
However gasoline stocks and distillate inventories, which include diesel, distillate and jet fuel, rose by less than analysts had expected.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is due to release its weekly inventory report on Friday.
Axi’s Innes said COVID restrictions on mobility were hurting the near-term outlook for oil demand, though traders had been looking beyond that on the hopes that vaccine rollouts would ease lockdowns.
“Simultaneously, the near-term China crude demand forecast looks high and susceptible to revision lower as lockdowns spread in the country ahead of the Lunar New Year,” he said.

The China situation will be key to monitor.

Asian buying has really supported the oil demand side this year, and any extended lockdowns in China would surely see the recent rally called into question...  

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The Day Ahead

'Highlight' of the day will be the ECB meeting, although no policy change is expected...

The focus will be on the press conference, with Lagarde expected to comment on the lockdowns and the impact they will have on the economic projections.

The ECB boss will surely be asked about the political situation in Europe and the 'closing the spreads' situation is bound to be mentioned...

Earnings Releases...

Today's Calendar