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"It's basically a mass UBI trial"

"People will just stay home and collect benefits instead of going to work"

We saw loads of responses along those lines when the US government announced the generous unemployment (UE) program last year.

Due to expire on the 6th of September nationwide, many states chose to end the supplementary UE benefits sooner amid a worker shortage...

Basically, end the benefits and people will be forced to go back to work. Worker shortage solved. Vote for me. ✊

The counter-argument was always that many workers did not have childcare, school closures, plus hesitancy over Covid risks, vaccinations and so on...

There have been a few studies on the wider impact of removing support, and this one caught my eye... 👇👇👇

A previous study via JP Morgan found that benefits were not a main driver of job-seeking... 👇👇👇

It's the impact on spending that markets will be most mindful of.

While everyone's worried about a fast employment recovery causing the Fed to remove policy support, it would also lead to stronger consumption that underpins the recovery.

There are plenty of savings, but the vast majority is in the hands of those with the lowest propensity to consume (as mentioned here) 👇👇

Is inflation coming? for TVC:US30Y by Macrodesiac

In short, we don’t think so. In the chart above, you’re seeing the 10y30y spread and the 10y yield. The 10s30s is a barometer of the inflation risk premium. And quite frankly, the market isn’t buying that inflation will be sustained. Yes, the 10y yield is indicating perhaps to many that there is…

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From Evergrande to a Chinese Country Garden...

We've covered Evergrande at great length over the past couple of years...

What’s up with China’s property market?

Evergrande, the real estate darling of China. At first glance, it appears like a straight-A student. However, it would take a prudent investor just five minutes of legwork to reveal that this company is, in fact, a troubled child.

MacrodesiacDavid Belle

The end is nigh, and the trade is done...

When a company is forced to liquidate its HQ, it's never good news.

There's really no point shorting it now, BUT...

The issues in question are not unique to Evergrande and more Chinese developers could easily follow...

Take Country Garden for example.

Another of China's largest developers (with the unironic 2007 ticker) overlaid here with Evergrande...

Time to play catchup?

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UK stamp duty holiday was not behind the pandemic rise in house prices...

Lots of interesting facts and figures in there, but this is all you really need to look at to see that the stamp duty holiday was not the true driver... 👇👇👇

If it was JUST the stamp duty holiday, then other countries would not have seen the same effect...

UK has underperformed. If only there was some kind of common factor linking these house price increases...