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Striketober!
The Great Resignation!
POWER TO THE WORKERS! ✊✊✊
Calling BS on this now.
It's been great to see people not having to accept the unacceptable, especially at the lower end of the income spectrum.
Now it's time to get back to reality. There is no big shift in worker power.
I'd even argue that the pandemic was actually the perfect excuse to release the pressures that had been building within businesses for years.
- Got to keep the shareholders happy so can't increase wages
- Got to keep the workers happy so need to increase wages
- Solution: Do just enough to keep most people mildly satisfied (then pay yourself a big bonus for ingenuity and problem solving)
Any time we see this crescendo of coverage, it usually signifies a peak in whatever the fashionable topic is.
THIS 👇 applies to all areas of the economy...
Guess what?
Now that schools are back, everyone's feeling a bit safer about the virus, the extra unemployment benefits ended, and people are having to dip into savings, we've seen continuing employment claims fall rapidly.
From September 19th to October 16th, the number of continuing jobless claims has fallen from 2.81 million to 2.24 million. A drop of 570,000 in one month!
Now, can this wave of job changes and higher wages last?
Take a look at these charts and comments from Dan Alpert at Westwood Capital 👇
7/10
— Dan Alpert (@DanielAlpert) October 26, 2021
And all that talk about elevated quits rates (JOLTS data)? Surprise, its mostly in the low income sectors that saw the high percentage changes as workers move from onw employer to another for better pay - just as you would expect them to do - not to go home and "lay flat." pic.twitter.com/W9eacVDN4t
9/10
— Dan Alpert (@DanielAlpert) October 26, 2021
As with the prices of goods, distortions in the price of labor resulting from the post-pandemic reopening and the pandemic-era actions taken to rescue and preserve our households and enterprises, are unique and cannot be understood from data aggregates (or headlines).>>
So, what's the next step for the media machine?
I'd take a guess that more people continue to return to the labour force from here on.
But that's boring. We need an angle to get those clicks...
US GDP Growth slowed to 2% today.
WHAT IF...
People want to return to work so the labour force grows... Just as the economy (and therefore hiring) is slowing?
Even though more people would be employed overall, the crowd making themselves available for work could easily outnumber the newly employed which would push the unemployment rate UP...
The next set of headlines...?
FROM THE GREAT RESIGNATION TO DESOLATION...
WORKERS WAITED TOO LONG TO RETURN TO THE JOBS MARKET, AND NOW NOBODY WANTS TO HIRE THEM...
The gift that keeps on giving...
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Understanding Oil Price Cycles
Oil is a pretty daunting market. All kinds of spreads, 'ango's and 'ations...
I thought this simple approach from John Kemp was worth sharing.
It offers a way to think about the cyclical nature of the oil markets and is a great foundation for everything else.
A couple of (very blue) screenshots here 👇
Download the full pdf here and John's daily news roundups are available here
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☢ Nuclear update 👇
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David Belle
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