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What's the BIG story today?

Inflation

There isn't any.

But there will be.

It won't last.

But it might.

Honestly, it's no wonder people give up trying to understand financial markets when you look at the media coverage (or twitter)...

Case in point 👇

We've opened up our full inflation view that was sent out yesterday:

Market Amnesia Still Not Cured
Back in January, I wrote the post below, outlining my views towards the ‘amnesia’ the market was experiencing, with irrational views about what the Fed would do next, and yes, that word ‘inflation’ was all important.
MacrodesiacDavid Belle

Interest rates and inflation are two of the most boring topics you can find, yet they're among the most important to markets, and the sectors most sensitive to rate changes... 👇

And if you see anyone getting on their high horse about about hyperinflation, send them this:

Hot 🔥 or Not ⛔?

HOT! 🔥

U.S. Equities - S&P and Nasdaq looking especially hot on the open...

New ATH's 🚀in sight...

NOT! ⛔

The 10Y treasury auction at 1PM EST, 6PM GMT...

Over to CNBC...

Whenever there's this much coverage/hype of something in advance it's usually a non-event.

Traders will want to see decent demand for bonds at these yields.

If buyers fail to show up, equities would most likely decline...

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OPEC+ Jitters


A headline quote from Russia’s Deputy PM Novak:

Russia is to increase oil output by 890k bpd from May...

Woah... what about the OPEC+ agreements?

Oil instantly sold off, then recovered even faster...

Turns out it was just a dodgy translation and he actually said that May's production levels will be 89ok bpd higher than they were in April last year...

No harm done, although it does highlight how sensitive the market is to OPEC disagreements, and this will be a key theme in the coming months.

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MacrodesiacDavid Belle