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The green agenda is back in focus ahead of the UN climate change conference at the end of the month.

The British government has already announced private investment deals worth nearly 10 billion pounds and trade department minister says they are "rolling out the green carpet for investors"...

They've announced a Β£400 million green investment partnership with Bill Gates...

Boris gave a speech yesterday to an investment summit event including guests such as BlackRock's Larry Fink & JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon...

"You in this room, you can deploy trillions - indeed I'm given to understand that there's $24 trillion represented in this room - ... and so I want to say to each and every one of those dollars: you're very welcome in the UK."

Britain has increased the grants to help homeowners ditch gas boilers to Β£5,000 too.

They're also exploring carbon capture technology (again)...

The basic idea is that you capture carbon from the air, and then store it in the ground.

Like this πŸ‘‡

No, it's not from a children's book on climate change, it's from Ed Conway's thread...

And the UK is better placed than most, due to having some of some of the world's biggest depleted oil and gas fields, wahey!

Just reverse the process and put the carbon back in the ground.

The biggest problem with this technology is that it's never worked at scale.

They're going to have a crack anyway... πŸ‘‡

The UK’s quest for net zero: Can carbon capture finally fulfil its promise?
Carbon capture storage offers a vital tool in the the road to net zero but current efforts are dwarfed by the size of the challenge and the UK is littered with pilot projects that fell by the wayside. Can the technology finally fulfil its promise?

Let's see if it delivers...

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Resilience... What does it mean?

We've been faced with the realisation that our global supply chains just aren't as resilient as they should be.

Many have suggested that everything will just need to be duplicated closer to home in order to provide this resilience (or self-sufficiency).

But that's not how the world works.

Top Tip: If any solution starts with 'we should just...' it probably isn't a solution

Thanks Captain Obvious!

Anyway, I enjoyed reading this from prof serious:

On Resilience ...
Problems are extracted from messes by analysis

Especially this πŸ‘‡

My starting point is that we are not going to retreat from our complex, global, digitally-enabled, highly optimised, just-in-time, supply chains. These generally serve us well.
The idea that we can increase resilience by localising key supplies, adopting a different approach to the economics of trade, eschewing technology, or that we will, in general, be willing, across the board, to pay for greater resilience, is, frankly a chimera.
Similarly, seeking solely to protect a narrow set of critical national infrastructure resources, facilities or services, will not in itself assure resilience.
The alternative approach is then, as follows: that we orient to 'systems resilience'. Rather than looking for specific vulnerabilities, we seek to map out the networks and relationships upon which critical national outcomes depend.

Now that we've tested our supply chains to the fullest extent, it's time to identify the weakest points, see where the failure cascades began and build up that resilience.

Big things happening already in that space at an individual level... πŸ‘‡

Shipping crisis can’t get any worse
Returning to β€˜normal’ is not an option. Companies are feeling the pain of extortionate costs while investment in port automation and tech is increasing dramatically.

Is anyone looking at the entire system and thinking about resilience?

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Will spare capacity swamp supply chains? That's the other side of the equation coming back into play...

As demand normalises, the bullwhip effect strikes...

One example...

DRAM memory prices are expected to fall significantly next year as supply outpaces demand... πŸ‘‡

Press Center - DRAM Prices Projected to Enter Period of Downswing in 2022 as Demand Lags Behind Supply, Says TrendForce | TrendForce - Market research, price trend of DRAM, NAND Flash, LEDs, TFT-LCD and green energy, PV
DRAM contract prices are likely to exit a bullish period that lasted three quarters and be on the downswing in 4Q21 at a QoQ decline of 3-8%, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. This decline can be attributed to not only the declining procurement activities of DRAM buyers going forward,…

UBS have a great public report on the 'not-normal' demand picture available here and show how it typically mean reverts...

In the US, real consumer spending on durable goods has been over 25%
above trend.

Europe has also seen real retail sales of durable goods that far exceed normal levels.

Well worth the full read to get your head around the dynamics in play along with a few similar historical examples to lean on.

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