Today's Opening Belle 🔔 is in partnership with Utrust...

The inflation debate...

I dropped this article to premium subscribers earlier, giving an update to our expectations for inflation, growth and what's going to happen in yield-land.

Market Amnesia Still Not Cured
Back in January, I wrote the post below, outlining my views towards the ‘amnesia’ the market was experiencing, with irrational views about what the Fed would do next, and yes, that word ‘inflation’ was all important.

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🤓 If you want some hard reading, then look no further than at one of the papers we checked out from the Fed.

Yes, this is the stuff that gets us going here at Macrodesiac.

The Fed - How Robust Are Makeup Strategies to Key Alternative Assumptions?
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

In short, it describes how the Fed (and by extension, other central banks) signal to the market how to 'make up' for misses in inflation data from economic shocks.

It's important to read academic papers since they can provide much deeper data based interpretations of topics than you can just from a glance at them.

Give the below article a read on coming up with investing ideas - one of the takeaways is to be inquisitive and to look at academic papers for insight 👇

🔥 Hot or 🚫 Not

🔥 Kangaroo vs Gone Off Sushi: AUDJPY has had a stormer of a week so far, rising from a low of 82.93 to the current price of 83.81 after risk came back on the table yesterday.

Follow through: we are expecting tech to dust itself off and try again at an upside march as the 10 year yield comes off the highs at 1.6%-ish and retreats back to 1.5%.

A much more respectable number for the NASDAQ to flourish again, and for AUDJPY to follow.

🚫 No rule for Britannia: it seems like investors don't like the UK this lunchtime after 'The Interview'.

The FTSE is looking like its lacking its British charm this afternoon after the morning rally.

Again, this is likely linked to the rotation of the rotation away from value (of which the FTSE is an entirely value based index, since it has nothing exciting about it whatsoever) back to large cap tech.

Anaemic: we need more Deliveroos in the FTSE.

The 'FoodDeliverTech' firm announced its listing at a value of £7bn, hopefully paving the way for more up to date companies to choose London as their listing destination of choice.


For you crypto heads...

Equos, our crypto partner, is running a welcome campaign, as well as having recently introduced Ethereum perpetual contracts.

Check them out and let us know how you find them.

SPACtacular fail... or is it?

One SPAC has recently come under scrutiny from WolfPack Research.

The research house says...

We are short Skillz, Inc. (Nasdaq: SKLZ) because its top games appear to be stagnant to declining, leading us to believe its revenue projections are farcical. Our research, including conversations with former employees, employees of Skillz’s two largest developers, and independent third-party app download data, all show us that the growth projections SKLZ and its SPAC sponsor continue to present to investors are entirely unrealistic.

Bad motives: On their Twitter, they reckon the intention was to dump on retail at the highest possible valuation.

But when I checked, there were zero insider sells AT ALL.


And the apparent 'non-deal' with the NFL...

Was in fact done and dusted.

NFL, Skillz Launch Contest For Branded Mobile Multiplayer Games
The NFL and Skillz announced a contest to develop a mobile, multiplayer game, with the winning developer getting official NFL branding and marketing support for their title. Skillz, which just went public. said it hopes to do more such deals with sports leagues.

Instead of bringing the SPAC into disrepute, they have brought themselves into disrepute, ironically by jumping too soon at the new craze of deriding SPACs.

No fan: I think SPACs are largely indicative of the market at the moment (i.e a bit crazy and unnecessary) but at the same time, so is jumping to critique something without having bothered to do the adequate research.

GameStop Won't... Stop

Everyone's favourite memestonk is rallying again, now up 5 days in a row, gaining ~15% in pre-market.

The price has already recovered to $223, could there be more to come...?

Deutsche Bank Survey

The price is being pushed higher by the new the e-commerce strategy, short squeezes and anticipation of the retail meme mania continuing when those stimmies hit the accounts...

The FT report on the rise of the retail army: amateur traders transforming markets

Charlie Munger doesn't approve...

...the 97-year-old vice-chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, recently described the GameStop episode as a “frenzy” led by a “new bunch of gamblers” who have “the mindset of racetrack betters”.

No idea what he's on about... 😇