The Archegos factor: Don't let FX hedge funds eat you due to greedy banks
First it was the Swiss National Bank exercising its prerogative. Next it was the government and its lockdowns. Now it's the fragility of the risk management procedure in the banks....
Dexit: Complacency kills
Does anyone remember before 2016? The year we had Brexit... The year Trump was voted into office? Does anyone recall the sheer shock when both campaigns won? I do. The complacency leading up to both was rife. And as the title says, complacency kills. We've seen something pretty drama.
Premium: An Open Letter to the Bank of England and the Chancellor
“For most of my life, one of the persons most baffled by my own work was myself.” - Benoit MandelbrotWhy aren't you baffled? I'll presume that you don't like Professor Mandelbrot's work, or maybe you're just not familiar
Premium: Long Convexity - Want More Crypto Buying Success?
But there's something that I have been thinking about quite a bit recently, and that is whether there is a way to really filter down coins and know whether one has a better chance of succeeding than others, out of the many thousands that are out there.
FOMC... Time for the Fed to take the bond bears out?
This meeting will see the biggest test yet of the Fed's 'expectations management'. AIT is supposed to reinforce 'lower for longer' - will the dots back that up?
Morning Notes: China-Taiwan conflict in the news again
Quick sentiment check: Asian markets green overnight (even China) Nasdaq leading the way in early trade... In the news China to strengthen anti-trust regulatory powers: state media China will strengthen anti-trust regulatory powers to push forward healthy, sustainable
Dumping Tech - Rotating Into Value - This Time IS Different...
That old chestnut... No love for tech so far today and China stocks are getting hammered... Chinext down over 4%, Shenzen Component down 3%, Hang Seng Tech Index UGLY, now down 6%... NQ down just over 1%..
🔔 Emerging Market and Budget Special
OK Rishi, well done I think he's passed the test here, by providing fiscal certainty to the market. Here's a quick rundown of what he has laid out in the Spring budget... Rather than reinvent the wheel, you can check out the full budget breakdown here 👇
Bonds Calm - Vaccinations, UK Budget & OPEC in focus
Last week was pretty wild as volatility spiked into month end, and there is plenty to look forward to this week too. Risk is back on so far with a positive session in Asia continuing in London...
🔔 Old for you, young for us and seriously, have sex more if you want growth
🔥 Hot or 🚫 not? In partnership with Equos. The NASDAQ listed, institutional crypto exchange. 🔥 Yields, Yields, Yields Corrr blimey, guv'na. Yields have had it off.
🔔 Why everything you know about tax is wrong, with special guest, Dominic Frisby
A Fantastic Chat with Dominic Frisby 🏡 Georgism fixes everything 💸 Why QE is a tax on the poor 💄 Beauty beats education
WFH is here to stay & London is still the financial hub of Europe
Quick note. Me and Tim jumped on for the pre-US open update We're doing these via Stereo from now on... You can listen to today's 👉 here 👈 What did we cover?💥 Inflation (yes again, but it’s important) 💥 Share
How Will Inflation Impact Gold & Oil?
And can we start talking seriously about inflation yet? Everyone's already started actually... Apparently inflation is making a return and it's probably Joe Biden's fault... Renowned economists Olivier Blanchard and Larry Summers gave their opinions... Let me double
Opening Belle - U.S. Budget 'Fast-Tracked', NFP's & Vaccine Passports
Risk ON ahead of NFP's Senate Budget Plan Passed Time To Leave TINA? Make America 'Make' Again UK Vaccine Passports...?
The Opening Belle - Herd Immunity Hopes Get A Boost
Oxford Vaccine Trials Offer Herd Immunity Hope China Growth Slowing - PMI's Draghi Return To Save Italy? Apple/Kia Reach $3.6 Billion Electric Vehicle Deal
The Opening Belle - Hang Seng Soars - Yellen Back In The Spotlight
- Hang Seng At 20-Month High - Iran Blames Blackouts On Bitcoin - Oil Optimism Outweighs Demand Concerns - BOJ Policy Review To Make ETF-Buys More Flexible
The Reserve Bank of Australia admits it wants young Australians to be poor
So... The gig is up. A central bank has finally admitted that it would really like its young citizens to remain poor. Here's a quick comic showing the RBA central bankers planning their crap. How do I know
The Opening Belle - China's Economy in 'Remarkably' Good Shape
📈 China Data Drop: GDP Grew 6.5% in Q4 🛢Biden To Cancel Keystone Pipeline Project 💰 RBA Says Low Rates Inflate Asset Prices 🏖 U.S. MLK Holiday
The Opening Belle - China's Exports Surge, Biden's $2 Trillion Plan
- China's Record Trade Surplus - Trump Bolsters China Investment Ban - Chinese Staff Can Work In EU For 3 Years - Clarifying Clarida's 2% Inflation Targets - Biden's $2 Trillion Plan - Covid Immunity & J&J Vaccine
The Opening Belle - Stocks Are At Extreme Valuations (Exclusive)
- Risk Sentiment: Turnaround Tuesday? - Fed Taper Talks - Stocks 'Extreme Valuations' - Japan Deflation Fear Returning - China Plans Further Hong Kong Crackdown
The Opening Belle - Soft Risk Tone Dominates Early Trade
- Chinese CPI/PPI - Aus Retail Sales Surge by 7.1% - U.S-China Relations In Focus - Bitcoin Tumbles - UK To Tighten Covid Measures - Trump Impeachment
The Opening Belle - Markets Look Beyond Trump & Protests
- Risk Sentiment Remains Strong - Dem Senate To Make $2,000 Payment Priority - Crypto Market Tops $1 Trillion - Japan Wages Fall - Australian Trade Booms
The Opening Belle - Democrats Lead Runoffs, 10Y Yield Hits 1%
- Dems Lead Runoffs, U.S. 10Y hits 1% - Hong Kong Democracy Arrests - Trump Bans Chinese Apps Incl. AliPay - NYSE May U-Turn Again On China Delisting - Bitcoin Over $35,000
The Opening Belle - Oil Gains Ahead Of OPEC+, Ether Rockets Past $1,000
- China PMI Reading Slips - Japan Manufacturing PMI Hits 50 - Tokyo State Of Emergency? - OPEC+ Expected To Maintain Cuts - More China Delistings - Ethereum 🚀
The Opening Belle - Goodbye 2020, It's Been... Emotional
- McConnell Thwarts $2,000 Stimulus - U.S. Tariffs EU Wines, Aircraft Parts - Chinese PMI's - Growth Plateau - U.S, U.K. China Vaccine Tracking - Brexit Deal Approved - XRP First, Tether Next? - ECB Will Raise Rates If Needed: Weidmann
The Opening Belle - McConnell Postpones Vote on $2,000 Stimulus
- $2,000 Stimulus Looks Unlikely, $600 Payments En Route - XRP Delistings Continue - UK House Prices Rise Most In 6 Years - Oxford-AZN Vaccine Approved in UK, But More Restrictions Expected Today
The Opening Belle - Nikkei Soars To 29 Year High
- House Approves $2,000 Stimulus, Senate Vote Today - Tougher China Restrictions For U.S. Investor Funds - ERG Support Brexit Deal - EU/China Investment Pact - Small Chinese Firms & Retail Struggle To Access Credit - FAA Regulations Bring Drone Deliveries A Step Closer
EQUOS Digital Exchange Institutional Standards, Available To Everyone
EQUOS aims to bring institutional and retail investors together to provide the ultimate place to trade in a compliant and fair way, and introduces the best features from the traditional finance investment industry to crypto.
The Opening Belle - Trump Wants Bigger Stimulus Payments, May Not Sign Relief Bill
- Trump Wants Spending Bill Modified, Bigger Stimulus Payments - Brexit Deal 'Possible' Today - API Crude Inventories Up - China/DCE Cools Iron Ore Rally
The Opening Belle - Covid Relief Bill FINALLY Passed
- Covid Relief Bill In Detail - Brexit - Fishing For A Headline - Australian Retail Sales Smash Expectations - Google, Facebook Team Up For AntiTrust
The Opening Belle - No GBP Love, Oil Slips, Gold & Silver Shine
- GBP Hit By Lockdown, Travel Restrictions, Brexit Impasse - U.S. Stimulus Deal Reached - China Maintains LPR - Hikes Next Year? - Defend 100 Yen Barrier
The Opening Belle - Brexit Crunch, Covid in Sydney, Quad-Witching
- Brexit - Another Weekend 'Deadline' Looms - BOJ Extends Funding Amid Deflation Fears - Covid Returns To Sydney - Stimulus Talks To Continue Over Weekend
The Opening Belle - Bitcoin Hits $22,000, Stimulus Deal Close
- Stimulus Deal Close - Fed QE To Continue Until Substantial Economic Progress Is Seen - Brexit Talks - Fishing In Focus - Oil At 9 Month Highs - Bitcoin to 400k?
The Opening Belle - Stimulus Hopes Increase, FOMC Day
- Stimulus Negotiations 'Getting Closer' - Brexit Trade Deal Next Week? - Japan's Exports Struggle - Australian PMI's Growth Momentum - Oil Inventories Increase
The Opening Belle - China Inflation Dips Below Zero
Positivity in Asian markets overnight, with the ASX up 0.6%, Nikkei +1.3% & KOSPI reversing yesterday's losses to gain 2%. With U.S. futures in the green, treasury yields slightly higher, and dollar (DXY) down to
No, Citi didn't contradict themselves over Microstrategy
This post was spurned by a large amount of poor takes on Citbank's downgrade of Michael Saylor's Microstrategy... You know, that firm that is using their excess capital to buy Bitcoin? So far, they've bought about 40,800
The Opening Belle - Japan Unveils Stimulus, Australian Confidence Rises
Indecisive overnight trade in Asia, with indices mainly drifting lower. For the 100th time this year Reuters is running the 'Asian stocks under pressure as pandemic concerns outweigh stimulus hopes' headline. European Opening Calls:#FTSE 6538 -0.27%
The Opening Belle - Brexit, U.S Sanctions China, Covid Relief Bill Imminent?
A positive start to the Asian session faded somewhat on news that the U.S. is preparing new sanctions on Chinese officials over Hong Kong crackdown. Chinese markets broadly lower. S&P 500 futures briefly rallied above
Week Ahead - Brexit, EU Council & ECB, China Trade
A blockbuster week awaits. Brexit 'Endgame'EU Council MeetingECB MeetingU.S. Government Funding/Fiscal StimulusChina Trade We've got to start with Brexit haven't we? Monday will see a barrage of headlines, sources, leaks, & opinions. “This is the final
PMI's - The Purchasing Manager's Index Explained
This subject often divides opinion. Are PMI's useless or useful? Let's dive in. PMI's are considered a leading indicator. IHS Markit describes their 'Purchasing Managers’ Index' (PMI) as a survey-based economic indicator designed to provide a timely insight
The Opening Belle - Brexit Briefings - UK Vaccine Approved
Indices traded indecisively overnight, whilst dollar and oil have continued to the downside. EURUSD trades above 1.2070, Crude in the lower 44s, and Brent in the low 47s. Macrodesiac are huge fans of Utrust & their HOLD
The Opening Belle - Stocks Up, Dollar Softer - New Month, Familiar Story
Stocks are off to a positive start for December, bonds and dollar a little softer, oil indecisive amidst OPEC uncertainty. DXY couldn't hold above 92, with 91.75 the next level of support. European Opening Calls:#FTSE 6306
The Opening Belle - Dollar Down, Oil Pressured, Strong Chinese PMI's
A softer risk tone to close out November. Indices broadly lower, bonds & JPY catching a small bid, dollar still unloved, trading at lowest since April 2018. European Opening Calls:#FTSE 6330 -0.60%#DAX 13251 -0.64%
The Opening Belle - Markets Drifting, Oil Down, Bitcoin Selloff Pauses
A quiet overnight session, most markets trading indecisively amid the Thanksgiving holiday and the lack of a fresh narrative impulse. China's recovery continues; China's industrial profits grow at quickest monthly pace since early 2017 Profits at China’s
The Opening Belle - Oil higher, Stocks flat, U.S. data in focus
Asian indices pushed higher in early trade, paring gains later in the session. Nikkei moved up 1.6%, but later fell back to close +0.5% on the day. S.Korea's KOSPI was up 0.5% at one
The Opening Belle - Stocks Up, Yellen Nominated, Trump Transition 'Approval'
Overnight positivity in the markets. The Nikkei gained 2.5%, buoyed by overall optimism & BOJ Governor Kuroda's comments to parliament that the nation was not heading toward deflation. Brent crude is back at March levels, the NZD
The Opening Belle - Risk On, Vaccine Rollout, Brexit Positivity
A 'risk on' start to the week. U.S. futures pointing higher, Asian indices in the green (Japan closed for holiday today), oil slightly stronger with CL trading in the high 42's and Brent over $45. South Korea's
The Opening Belle - Side Effects May Include Premature Optimism
Plenty of positivity in Asian markets overnight, the Nikkei closing earlier at the highest level since 1991. European & U.S. futures are positive, but painting a more cautious picture for now. Note that U.S. bond markets
Currency Wars - Central Banks Are Back In The Game
It was an incredible day in the markets yesterday. We saw a large rotation into small caps, and the Russell 2000 went limit up (+7%) before the cash open. Longer dated U.S treasury yields gained, with the
Weekly Report 01/11/20: It's Going To Be an Interesting Week
Afternoon people, We had a great week… The EUR/USD did most of the heavy lifting, but there was a nice move on the AUD/JPY, and heading into next week, David still has his eyes on the
Some really, really, really important videos for you to watch
I've been watching a few videos this week on YouTube while I've had some downtime. Here's a few of the most important ones I've watched. Watch them, get smarter, and impress your mates. The Daily Check In: Measuring
Taking Stock: Experiences of 30 years in the markets
One of the benefits of having more than 30 years in financial markets is that you have had plenty of experiences both good and bad, and as you step back from the coal face of the trading desk
Week Ahead - (Second) Waving Goodbye To The European Recovery?
Time to frame the upcoming week. Let's get the U.S. politics out of the way first. Yes, they're boring, but expect them to be back in your headlines again from Monday. Stimulus first. McConnell is putting a
Why the EU Recovery Fund Will Fail - An Italian Perspective
Financial consultant Giovanni Ponzetto has kindly written this piece for Macrodesiac. It's massively insightful to get the perspective of an Italian citizen on the EU... Let's face it, they're the worst affected country by the EU and Eurozone
When Soros left the Bank of England with a SoreArse... a lesson
OK there's more than one lesson here, but there's one that I want to focus on. Not much has gone on today that I think it important to write about... So I want you to watch this video.
U.S. Stimulus Bill - I Just Need Some Liquidity Maaaaan
Robin Williams in 2009, talking about the banks and their liquidity addiction. But this time it's different.Shhh, it actually is. The banks (generally) have plenty stashed away. It's households and businesses that need juicing this time. Unfortunately,
Risk generally constructive again overnight. ASX rallied early and was up 1.2%, pared gains then pushed back up. Now +0.8% on the day. Nikkei +0.7% KOSPI +0.7% Chinese indices were in the red, but