Previous issues
🔔What is the actual impact of QE & interest rate changes?
QE and interest rates are slippery topics. So we've come to the conclusion that people must know what the actual impact of QE (quantitative easing) and interest rate changes is.
🔔 An idiot's guide to inflation: why is it important?
Inflation 📈 It seems like such a simple concept... but it can also make you feel like an idiot.
💵 Oooh Look At Those Curves!
Market peeps love talking about yield curves, steepeners and flatteners and pretending they're real things. Most people don't know this, but they're fake. Totally made up...
💵 The Low Priced Stocks Experiment
Screening and filtering stock lists has been quite rewarding for us in 2023. Can 'low priced' momentum stocks run next?
💵 The Big Scary Bear That Kills Goldilocks
Markets love Goldilocks. Everything just right. Not too hot, not too cold. Not too hard, not too soft. Just... Optimal. Stock markets head higher, bulls make money and all is right with the world. Until the bears come home and eat Goldilocks (or set her on fire)...
💵 Sweden's Down, Who's Next?
Sweden's GDP data was an absolute stinker. GDP fell by 2.4% YoY. So is this a big flashing neon warning sign for other countries, or unique to Sweden?
💵 No Longer Forecasting A Recession
The Fed no longer see a recession in our future, just a nice gentle slowdown. BlackRock's even entertaining the possibility of a 'full employment recession'...
💵 Self Doubt & Deconstruction
"The truth is that I enjoy getting it right and want to share that feeling..."
The reason the market doesn't go down is staring at us
Which textbook would tell you that credit spreads, especially in the high yield sector, would be lower at 5% interest rates than when they were at 1.5%?! It's insanity, right?
💵 Saturation & Diminishing Returns
Barbie & Oppenheimer. Two huge blockbusters absolutely raking it in at the box office. Why? Saturation.
💵 Rational Imperfection
I can't believe this is happening, the market's so irrational! Nah. This imperfection is perfectly rational mate. Maybe you just need to cope a little harder...
💵 Back To China's 'Lehman Moment'
Lots of big, ugly numbers coming out of China this week. The economy's looking shaky, and the property market is still correcting. But is any of this *new* news?
💵 Process, Process. Process
The Veteran's process driven approach to finding bargains for earnings season
💵 The Rise Is Mightier Than The Fall
After one of the worst years ever, the Nasdaq has soared. It's a repeating pattern. Big selloffs usually lead to big recoveries...
💵 Echo Bubbles
Prices go up really fast, far beyond any rational valuation, and you can't move for people telling you how this is The Next Big Thing™ Then the bubble pops. Or does it?
💵 Tim's Unpopular Theories
Predicting the future is hard - "anything can happen and it probably will" We prefer the alluring illusion of certainty but the real world just doesn't care about our feelings...
💵 The Canary In The Coal Mine
Will the UK be the canary in the coal mine for the global credit cycle? "...shattering the illusion that modern, highly indebted economies can sustain suddenly much higher interest rates?"
💵 The Cycle That Just Won't Die
The much anticipated recession never came. Now the narrative has flipped to 'no recession', or even a 'new cycle/economic expansion'...
💵 Becoming A Funded Trader
Live the dream. Become a funded forex trader. Trade other people's money instead of your own. Massive upside, limited downside. That's the pitch. But is it true...?
What is Darwinex Zero?
You might have heard of them before - the only broker with an asset management license as well as a broker license under the FCA. Well known for being one of the best places to trade FX, CFDs, futures and stocks, they've now brought in a new challenge...
BUY BONDS
This is pure hypothesis here and almost back of envelope thinking... But something came to me right as I woke up this morning. What if, the market only goes down based off a big negative delta on the rate of change of global central bank liquidity on aggregate?
💵 What's Going Wrong In Europe?
Europe's sleepwalking into their latest crisis. Chatter about a more aggressive balance sheet unwind (QT) from the ECB and ongoing rate rises is at odds with the economic data...
💵 Fading The Market Trend
Everyone loves a reversal. Nothing makes a trader feel better than nailing the high or low just as the market turns. Unfortunately it happens once in a blue moon...
💵 China's Stock Market Rally Is (Finally) Imminent (Again)
First it was the economic reopening, then the restructuring of the economy, now it's 'just because'. Time for China's stock market to finally rally?
💵 Helping People Pay Their Mortgages Is Elitist
The UK government wants to ensure that Brits don't lose their homes. When will these despicable elites do something to actually help the public?
💵 Oh, You're Bearish?
"Bad things are coming, economy's f***ed, probably get hyperinflation, maybe deflation, great depression, so yeah, I guess you could say I'm bearish"
💵 UK Inflation - The Wrong Type Of Snow
UK inflation came in higher than expected again today. The 'cost of living' crisis continues. Inflation is expected to fall dramatically in the months ahead & The Veteran's here to add some context
💵 Why The US Dollar Is The Greatest Invention Of All Time
People talk about electricity & AI as if they're something special, but we've already had the greatest invention there is and ever will be... The US Dollar
💵 34 Stocks - Bull Sh*t Or Bear Pit?
34 stocks that could play catchup before the bears are allowed to play again
How to buy the top of a market
Manchester United are about to be bought by Qatar. Fact. Well, it's not exactly a fact, but all signs are pointing to this happening. The one in the main for me at the moment is the rapidly increasing share price with just no let up.
The media is wrong about UK GDP growth - here are the facts
Did you know UK GDP during the pandemic was only the worst in the G7 because of a methodology change?
I'll tell you a secret... make the subjective, objective
Yesterday's article had mentioned a paper on hedgefunds going against media (and therefore public and uninformed traders') sentiment. Have a read of the PDF if you missed it...
💵 What does posting a satirical Tweet tell us about the state of crypto?
After the trouncing of altcoins late on Friday night, I decided to do a little sentiment digging by posting the below Tweet, which probably most have seen by now...
Are the elephants coming home to roost?
Roosting elephants? Almost as mental as thinking the market might go down, right? That's what I had mentioned on Friday in this piece.
💵 Can Europe... Change?
The Eurozone's now in one of those 'technical' recessions. The ECB will keep hiking a bit longer, but what's 'next'... Can Europe change?
💵 Does Market Breadth Actually Matter?
"Narrow breadth market rallies are unhealthy!" "Nah, it's fine, the rest will catch up" All about that breadth...
Disinflation is coming to the UK
Oops. UK housing prices did a naughty this morning. THE FIRST NEGATIVE PRINT IN 11 YEARS
💵 The Death Of Degrowth
Degrowthers have decided that economic growth is somehow 'bad'. They say the only logical choice is to degrow ('shrink' couldn't get approval from marketing)...
💵 AI Changes Everything & Nothing
Massive job losses due to AI? Can this 'new' tech really deliver that level of automation?
💵 Revolution: In With The Young, Out With The Old?
It's pretty clear that we've gone from overstimulating to probably overtightening. The Recession Reaper is getting his cloak on and sharpening his scythe. One big question still captivates me... Then what?
'Replace Bank of England Governor with ChatGPT,' says Belle
The Founder of Macrodesiac, David Belle, has today dropped a BOMBSHELL, saying Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England, should be replaced by AI. Speaking to Macrodesiac, Belle says, 'after hearing that Bailey has veered away
💵 The Greedflation Lie
Prices keep rising, companies are making profits and people are outraged. Greedflation is a popular explanation. It's a lie.
💵 Diamonds In The RUT
Diving into the Russell 2000 to see if there are actually any diamonds in the rough (RUT) is rarely advisable, but it happened anyway...
💵 Corporate Raiders & The Temple Of Grift
The incredible tale of Bed, Bath & Beyond, a new focus on profitability (weird), and the death of GAAS (Grift As A Service)
💵 Thinking In Probabilities Is Ridiculous
You'll often hear people talk about thinking probabilistically as a superpower. If you can just learn to do it, you'll level up your brain, unlock Pandora's box, succeed at trading and finally get that Lambo
💵 Druck Is In The Eye Of The Beholder
Old Stanley's been hitting the headlines a lot lately. We love Druck. But why does the media always focus on the wrong quotes?
💵 And So We Face The Final Curtain...
"It's so over" vibes are getting stronger - how long can markets keep marching to their own beat? Europe the next big short?
💵 The Little CEO's Who Could
We can all enjoy a bit of CEO bashing: 'Jack's an idiot hippy', 'Elon's a snake oil schmuck', 'Aron's a scammer'. Good, clean fun. But are they really?
💵 The Most Important CPI Number of ALL TIME
It's really not is it? Just another number. Let the academics focus on 0.1% higher or lower. There are far bigger issues bubbling in the background
💵 The Death Of Journalism
Every day we're inundated with information from 'the media'. But how much is useful, reliable nuggets to help us make sense of the world? And how much is PR spin... Spoon-fed titbits for media sparrows to regurgitate into the mouths of their starving dependants (us)?
💵 We're Never Going Back
ZIRP bro's look away now - we're never going back, you had your chance... Even if there's a recession, stupidly low rates will be transitory
💵 The Latest Most Important Fed Meeting Ever
Bank failures, inflation progress, debt ceiling angst, and signs of labour market softening have markets begging the Fed to pause today. One more hike first...?
💵 Pay Attention - The Future Of Finance Is Here
The future of finance isn't a 60/40 portfolio. The impatient generation is rising up...
💵 Why Don't People Understand Things?
Mirror: Making Money Is Bad Guardian: Natural Gas Isn't Natural BBG: Intellectual Curiosity Enters Bear Market
💵 I'm Lovin' It (But You're Not)
McDonald's share price surged to all time highs yesterday. Why care? Well, McDonald's earnings can tell us quite a bit about the economy...
💵 This Is Not What It Seems
AI, ESG & Greenwashing - separating the marketing from the quiet reality
💵 Beware The Negative Bias
Recent notes have been somewhat negative, bearish even. We think that's with good reason, but that doesn't mean markets are heading straight to the depths...
💵 Only The Paranoid Survive
Success breeds complacency, complacency breeds failure, only the paranoid survive
Are you thinking what I'm thinking? Well, don't.
I will always recall the best and most important piece of advice given to me about 10 years ago by the Head of Dealing at a very large broker (not retail, but actual spot).
💵 Tesla & RBA Hysteria
Musk is a 'victim of his own war' (but not really) and after a nine month(!) review the Australian central bank is... staying the same
💵 Entering The Next Market Phase
Remember the Great US Banking Crisis of 2023? It's over. So... what's next?
💵 Why Investment Trusts Trade at Premium Or Discount To Net Asset Value
Oooh this one's cheap, it trades at a discount. Honey, let's buy this one before anyone else notices...
💵 Why ETF's Suffer From Tracking Errors
In theory, ETF's will track an underlying asset perfectly. In reality, there are often tracking errors that can negatively impact performance...
💵 Commercial Real Estate is Gonna Collapse Bro
As a rule of thumb, when EVERYONE's talking about something, it's usually not a good trade. Yet on the back of the banking crisis everyone's talking about commercial real estate. So is it overblown? Or is the coverage simply too generalised?
💵 The Macro Soap Operas
OOOOOOH THE DRAMA! Entertaining as they are, macro soap operas are bad for your financial health
💵 Get Your Money For Nothing And Your Tech For Cheap
Can you really get Money For Nothing? The Veteran's spotted a potential opportunity in an unexpected place...
💵 Capital Is No Substitute For Confidence
It doesn't matter how much you've got in your wallet if nobody trusts you. Lessons from the 'banking crisis'
Banks simply cannot fail
Bank regulations are rarely very sexy, and nor are they ever particularly interesting. Most people, including myself, have never had to deal with handling regulatory capital and so don't know the actual ins and outs of the system.
💵 They Have To Cut Rates, This Is Out Of Control
Now that we're calming down, back to business. More hikes, less guidance. Data-dependent central banks and more tightness
💵 Why The Fed's Always Wrong
Blame the Fed if you want to be boring and live your life in a dark cave of ignorance
💵 The MILF at Silicon Valley Bank
How a MILF took down "the go-to financial institution for startups"
💵 Why China's Grand New Plan Doesn't Matter
Ooooh a brand new plan for China - haven't heard this one before! Growth engine? No. Stagnation...
💵 Risk Free? There's No Such Thing
Everyone's heard the saying "if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is". Yet in financial markets we talk about 'risk free rates' as if they're actually real. What's the deal?
💵 The Goldman Shacks Alpha Generator
The Veteran's been on stock-picking fire lately. Inspiration is found in the strangest of places...
A Good Reason to Be Bullish the Euro (seriously)
Right. I'm back. I literally haven't written an article in months. 'Why?' you might ask. Well what has there been to write about apart from the single most important factor in the market? What does the market
💵 Buying Cheap, Selling Expensive
Selling NVIDIA, buying a fertiliser company. It's a terrible idea but we're doing it anyway...
💵 Taking Back The Network Effects
Network effects became a cliché over the past decade. Just grow the business and "let network effects take care of the rest..." We're taking them back
💵 Howard Marks Is At It Again
Back in 2007BL (Before Lehman) Oaktree was raising capital to buy distressed assets. Now they're stacking cash for leveraged buyouts...
💵 Scared of Nuclear? Nah, Time To Build
Are we (finally) on the brink of a nuclear revolution?
💵 Housing Doldrums & Conundrums
Everyone knows that house prices globally are set to fall this year. Will governments intervene or let the market correct?
💵 China's Stealing Our Tech Again
China's long history of disrespecting and ignoring intellectual property rights is back in the headlines. Will it ever change?
💵 The End Of The Inflation Narrative
Here are all of the vague and unscientific reasons why I think inflation is about to disappear from the front pages
💵 Being Famous Means I Know Better Than You
Munger Says. Buffett Says. Dalio Says. Ackman Says. Druckenmiller Says. Random 250k Follower Guy Says.... Should you care what the Best And Brightest™ have to say?
💵 The Anatomy of High Impact Market Events
Traders are attracted to high impact events (such as yesterday's CPI) like moths to flames. They know they shouldn't, but it's just so beautiful...
💵 Adapt. Anchor. Profit?
Running an experiment into today's US CPI (and beyond)... Anchored VWAP's as a gauge of fair value - do they work?
💵 Good News! Evil Corporates Are Making Less Money. Bad News...
Inflation's not over, but another big driver's starting to turn. Pricing power is weakening, employment's next...
💵 The Target Is Transitory
Messaging from central bankers is getting even messier than usual. Are they cracking? Realising that the true costs of bringing inflation down to 2% are simply too high?
💵 Growth To Value And Back Again
How do we differentiate between growth and value? Can a company/stock be both? Or are those labels drastically abused and misused..?
💵 Financial Conditions Aren't Easing
Powell didn't push back against the 'easing' of financial conditions and junk bond spreads are tighter than [EDITED] What's going on?
💵 Too Many Market Balloons
Balloongate, Japan's trial balloon and the beautiful chaos of the US economy picking up just as the Fed acknowledges disinflation kicking in.
💵 500 Gazillion Jobs
Take the reported jobs numbers with a truckload of salt, but the strong labour market (and economy) refuse to roll over
💵 What you weighting for?
Gwen Stefani sang an entire song about the concept of equal-weight investing and nobody realised. The Veteran explains...
💵 Freaking The Fed Out
People are freaking out about the Fed again. Will today's decision (and comments) actually change anything?
💵 Why Are Short Sellers So Hated?
Short sellers get a really bad rap. They generally release reports uncovering fraud or poor business practices (which seems like a valuable service) - why the hate?
💵 When Scepticism Becomes Cynicism
Could there be anything less suited to financial markets? Uncertainty is constant, suffering is assured. That's the game. And your solution is to become a cynic?
💵 We're All Insane
Anyone voluntarily making a living in markets has a screw loose. We're all insane and I love it.
💵 Layoffs Rising As Rates Peak
Layoffs are on the rise as companies tighten their belts and the global economy slows. Central banks want to leave rates on pause and quietly exit stage left. But for how long?
💵 Why is the dollar so weak?
Judging by my DM's, there's some confusion about why the dollar has been tracking weaker lately. All we need is the dollar smile
💵 Is The Stock Market a Ponzi Scheme?
It's often said that the entire system is rigged, a ponzi created so that 'they' can profit. Is that the full story?
💵 Enough Is Enough
Sending that yield curve back to positive territory, the ultimate recessionary indicator.
💵 Competing Narratives
From Goldilocks and the Soft Landing to Stagflation and the Great Depression 2.0, so many narratives are competing for market attention. It's hard to get a solid read. We'll need to stay the course.
💵 The Best Investment
It's accepted wisdom that getting on the property ladder is the best way to set yourself up for life. The best investment you'll ever make. What if that's wrong?
💵 If It Moves, Tokenise It
Crypto has dropped the ball. TradFi is taking tokenisation and running with it. If it moves, tokenise it...
💵 Learn The Three Rs: Rotation. Reversion. Repetition
Money in the markets rotates from asset class to asset class, index to index, sector to sector and stock to stock. Rotation. Reversion. Repetition
💵 The Annual WTAF Davos Meeting
WEF, Davos. Private jets, bug-eating & hypocrisy. Loathe them or not, these people make policy that impacts markets...
💵 Peak Goldilocks - No Soft Landing
Lots of optimism doing the rounds. Goldilocks is unlikely to last. Miracles are possible, but not probable
💵 Thinking The Right Way About CPI
Everyone's got their hot takes on the CPI number and what it will mean for markets. Here's another (better) way to think about it
💵 The Death Of The Dollar (Again)
The death of the dollar is - once again - imminent. The petroyuan's taking over. Must be a day ending in y.
💵 Themes, Memes and Dreams
"Finding the next big thing™ is the way for investors to turn a few thousand dollars into millions" "Separating fact from wishful thinking (fiction) is just the start"
💵 Let's Get Messy
NFP's today and beyond are likely to be messy. Classic "even if you had the data in advance you'd still lose money" territory
💵 The New Look Fed
New voters for 2023. Still all about the labour market. Until that weakens, any pivot hopes are just distant dreams.
💵 The Efficient Market Lie
True or false? "when new information comes into the market, it is immediately reflected in stock prices"
💵 New Year, Same Themes
Demand picture is weak, inflation is falling. Same old story. What if wages keep rising as inflation drops in 2023?
💵 China The Key For 2023
China's economic recovery. Will it cause another bout of inflation, or drive global growth in 2023?
💵 ECB Long The Inflation Top: Game Over?
Is the ECB hawking it up right into a recession?
💵 Obsessed with 'Financial Conditions'
The Fed and other central banks are obsessing over financial conditions. Even after tightening at breakneck speeds, financial conditions have eased. That won't last.
💵 Fed Up: Missing France-Morocco For Powell's Preaching
Fed meeting tonight. Everyone will see what they want to see regardless of what's said and none of it will make much sense.
💵 Ready For CPI?
Inflation is dead. Long live inflation. That's what the bulls want to hear. Will they get their wish? Or is an upside surprise in store to cancel Santa?
💵 Reassurance Is Futile
Reassurance is futile. The future has an annoying habit of showing up, regularly. And it shows up in ways that we don’t expect.
💵 The Gambler's Curse
Been thinking a lot about gambling lately. How everything's a gamble and everyone's a gambler (whether they realise it or not)...
💵 Deglobalisation Is Wishful Thinking
The road to self-sufficiency is full of potholes and holds the potential for some unintended and very unpleasant consequences.
💵 Being A Good Loser
You'll often hear platitudes about learning to love your losses. Not on these pages. Learn to loathe your losses.
💵 Know what you want to see...
Execution, process, and not getting sucked in by the giant advertising board we know as 'financial markets'
💵 Betting On The Value Chain
Semiconductor boom. Who you betting on? There's a whole value chain to think about. Just don't think too hard...
💵 What drives stock prices and valuations?
There are a million company metrics to study. What if none of them matter? Stock prices and valuations aren't determined by earnings...
Understanding Debt Seniority: What Is It and What Are the Risks?
Debt seniority is a key financial concept to understand. In the event of liquidations, who gets payment priority?
Real Yields: An Essential Tool for Investors
Real yields provide a clearer picture of the returns investors can expect from an investment. By stripping out the effects of inflation and removing any time-value distortion of money, real yields more accurately reflect the actual rate of return you will earn.
The Dangers of Leverage in Financial Markets
Leverage in financial markets can be a bad thing because it increases the potential for large losses. Leverage magnifies any potential gains or losses that may occur in an investment.
💵 The End of Big Tech Dominance
Big Tech's stock market dominance is finally ending. The end of exceptionalism for Apple, Amazon, Microsoft & Google...
💵 JayPow & The JOLTS
JOLTS shouldn't matter, but they do. Powell's taking the stage later today. Can the Fed Chair repeat his Jackson Hole trick and sink the stocks?
💵 Shock! Money Does Buy Happiness
Greed is good. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
💵 Low Productivity & Shrinking Profits
Workers want pay rises just as companies face up to shrinking profits. Productivity is too low. Something will have to give...
The US 2s10s curve has never been more important
The bond market is the defining factor in judging what is going on in the market, and looking at bond yields, specifically the US 2s10s curve (the spread between the US 10 year treasury yield and the 2 year) can give us a shining light into how risks are priced and what is next for the real economy.
Why are FX reserves important?
FX reserves aren't the most fun part of the market, but it is important to understand how they work and the different dynamics at play with different central bank contexts.
💵 Will Wage Hikes Lead To Persistent Inflation?
Workers are fighting back. Wages are rising, and if they don't, unions organise strikes or workers simply leave. More inflation ahead?
💵 The Canadian Mortgage Crisis
Canadian property prices are falling. Mortgage payments are rising. All against a backdrop of broken promises and widespread mortgage fraud
How Does The Bank Of England Set The Base Rate?
The Bank of England sets the base rate, the most important benchmark UK interest rate, also known as the bank rate or base interest rate
Does the Bank of England affect exchange rates?
We explained what the Bank of England does, but how does the Bank of England actually affect exchange rates (FX) in reality?
💵 Don't Just Do Something, Sit There
Trade less, trade better, defending the over-valuation in private equity and why the end is nigh for many EV startups
What does the Bank of England do?
Founded in 1694, the Bank of England is the United Kingdom's central bank and is responsible for setting the monetary policy of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales.
💵 Banks Looking Forward To 2023
Banks and research firms are publishing their 2023 outlooks. A soft landing and a strong US economy, or the S&P500 to 3,000 as company earnings take a big hit?
Is The Santa Rally In Stock Markets Real?
Do you know about the Santa Rally in stock markets? Also known as the Santa Claus Rally, this phenomenon occurs during the last five days of December and first two days of January. During this period, stock market
💵 Crypto, Magazine Covers, China & Recessions
Lows are in for crypto, I read it in a magazine. Don't chase China's bumpy reopening rally and no recession could mean inflation hangs about for longer
Is this magazine cover a contrarian indicator for crypto?
Magazine covers are an excellent contrarian indicator in financial markets. Time for a crypto reversal.
What are the best stocks for rising interest rates?
We've identified that in a rising interest rate environment, stocks on the whole are likely to decline as we're currently seeing with pretty much all indices...
🔔 Adapt Or Die
Markets don't really change. Yet some businesses die while others adapt and thrive. What's the secret?
🔔 Filling Jeremy's Big Black Hole
Jeremy Hunt says if we take more of your money and dump it into that swirling dark fiscal abyss, it'll go through the magic wormhole and reappear in the wallets of other people who need it more than you
🔔 Simple Is Best
On conspiracies. And making sense of this complex web of stories that we call financial markets...
Start looking for USD strength, equities weakness
We look at whether there is WORSE news, data and sentiment coming out to determine whether we remain or push above the 200DMA.
🔔 Confucius Say... China Still F***ed
China's economy will probably pick up for a few months before the bigger problems smack it down again...
FTX is not Lehman - here's why.
Over the last week or so, I've seen a TONNE of posts describing the FTX disaster (and that is what it is, a fraudulent, unmitigated and damning disaster) as a 'Lehman Moment'. I think there's a few reasons why people are referencing this, but it's wrong.
🔔 The More Things Change - The More They Stay The Same
The packaging changes, but nested investments ALWAYS end the same way - there's nothing new under the sun
Does FTX show why central banks are important?
I know, I know... It's cool to hate on central banks and blame them for all the problems in an economy. And I do! I really do.
Is this ex-BoE economist wrong?
Is this ex-BoE economist wrong? No way. An economist being wrong? Surely not? I don't quite get this recent Tweet from Mr Blanchflower...
🔔 FTX is as safe as The Bank Of England
FTX is under the cosh. Don't worry, it's all fine. You can trust Sam, he'd never lie to you...
🔔 The Weird Jobs Report (And More Layoffs)
261,000 jobs added or 306,000 jobs lost. It all depends who you speak to.
Is FTX doing something illegal?
I've always wondered about the relationship between FTX and Alameda, the entity that 'is but isn't' related to FTX.
The risk free rate is key to understanding stock markets
No joke, I think if you're able to understand the role interest rates play in the economy and in financial markets then you are halfway to winning the battle of being able to construct winning ideas.
🔔 Single Stock Opportunity Knocks
Uptober played out at the index level, and a handful of single stocks soared above and beyond. The Veteran's spotted something that links them together...
🔔 Just Stop Capitalism
The basis of life and progress. Those who want to end capitalism simply don't understand how the world works
🔔 Desperate For A Fed Pivot
Whatever happens today, this isn't the pivot you're looking for
🔔 The Strong Dollar Earnings Massacre
Hedge our FX risk for more profits? Sounds like a lot of work, we'll just sacrifice 12% of our annual profits instead...
🔔 The Windfall Tax Investment Fund
Windfall taxes are top of mind, but where will the money go and what problems will it solve?
🔔 I Come To Bury Zuckerberg Not To Praise Him
The Veteran's predicted Facebook weakness since the pre-Meta days. Now it's all falling apart for the Zuck. Can he turn it around?
🔔 Germany & China Sitting In A Tree
K.I.S.S.I.N XI. Germany's getting closer to China just as the US turns away.
🔔 Rate Hikes Get Political
The Fed's trying to kill inflation. Politicians keep interfering.
🔔 The Lithium Shortage That Never Was
No let up in the lithium bull market. The battery metal's up roughly 180% year to date. The market will always find a solution...
🔔 The Yen Intervention Trade
Japan's intervening again. Did you catch THE trade? You know, the 150 trade. The level that EVERYONE was watching...
🔔 A Little Knowledge Is A Dangerous Thing
Relying on the information that's immediately available to you when making important decisions about money and finance is rarely a good idea
🔔 Will Britain's Economy Collapse?
Britain's had their turn in the spotlight. Within the next week or two there'll be a new leader and a new fiscal plan. Who's next?
🔔 Are Dutch Pension Funds Safe Or Next To Fall?
The central bank told them to get their house in order. Can they act in time?
🔔 Deflationary Depression, State-Led Capitalism & Big Changes
The world economy's looking pretty wobbly. At times like these, big ideas about permanent change become seductive...
🔔 When Will China's Economy Overtake The US?
Never. Honestly. Stop asking. Xi's congress speech was just more of the same
Q: Which bond yields are rising? A: All of them
If you have been reading and watching UK media recently, you're probably quite aware of the furore surrounding what the BoE has been up to in apparent response to the mini-budget shenanigans of the new Tory government.
🔔 Germany's In Deep Scheiße
it's hard to see how Germany gets through this without some serious long-term scars. A short recession would be an amazing outcome that only the most optimistic could entertain.
🔔 The Bond Market Is Broken. Let's Fix It
A healthy, vibrant bond market is the bedrock of any financial system. The biggest global bond market is broken. How do we fix it?
🔔 The Depressing Outlook & Inflation
The pain's only just beginning. Things will get worse before they get better. Are we having fun yet?
🔔 The Inevitable Bullwhip Effect
The bullwhip effect is inevitable and a key supply and demand concept. Discounts for us means lower profits for those filthy capitalists...
🔔 The Signal From The Noise
The Veteran draws parallels between Thomas Cromwell, the modern day trader, and the executioners scythe hanging over European credit markets
🔔 Hard To Be An Optimist
But it's not all doom and gloom, even if the big picture looks dystopian
🔔 The Big Housing Freeze
Pain for landlords and the over-leveraged as global housing markets freeze up
🔔 Recession Or Crisis
Doomsday is upon us again. Global recession, the zombie apocalypse, or maybe just a quiet one?
🔔 Europe's Next Big Battle
European unity for thee, but not for we. Can Germany boss the rest of the EU around while adding €360 billion of debt in a year?
🔔 Go VUCA Yourself
When Mario speaks, you listen. VUCA can help you understand the insanity of markets...
🔔 Abandon Hope All Ye Who Enter Here
Housing's done, Orders are slowing, all eyes on Profits & Employment now.
🔔 Impossible British Things
Markets are breaking because the UK actually wants to make the economy better. HOW DARE THEY
🔔 A Great British Plan For A Great British Problem
Cut corporate taxes, more money for the bankers, cut stamp duty to keep the property market propped up. What's Truss up to?
🔔 Never Go Full Volcker
Everyone knows you never go full Volcker. The only Fed preview you need.
🔔 Context Peasants. CONTEXT
Markets go up and down, fortunes are made and lost. Everything is cyclical. King Charles says we need a bull market in critical thinking.
🔔 The Illusion Of Knowledge
"No amount of sophistication is going to allay the fact that all of your knowledge is about the past and all your decisions are about the future"
🔔 Inflation In The Real World
Does inflation really hurt the poor most? "Our understanding of inflation is not helped by a world increasingly dominated by sound-bite economics"
🔔 The Evolution From Growth Company To Business
Great business you have there, does it actually make any money?
🔔 Housing: The Big Short Rerun?
It's not 2008 all over again. Some housing pain is assured, but there's a lot that's different this time...
The market is pretty ilLITquid
Book depth is non-existent. Liquidity is non-existent.
🔔 No Free Lunches
The UK energy price cap fixes short-term problems, but there's no free lunch, and the bill will come due in future.
🔔 Business Moats: Can't Touch This
Every company wants a deep, wide moat. Something that protects the company from invaders barrelling in and stealing the loot. But not all moats are created equal
🔔 Central Banks: How's Your Poker Face?
Central Bank Strategy: Give nothing away, keep betting big and hope for the best.
🔔The REAL Reason Stocks Are Crashing
OK. So you want to know the REAL reason stocks are down? We plugged the data into our proprietary Macrodesiac Model™ to bring you the answer.
🔔 Nuclear Future
Nuclear power will be the bedrock of electricity markets around the globe.
🔔 GBP Hopium And The Future
Truss is in. GBP's stopped falling. Hopium rally inbound?
🔔 The Problem With Buybacks
Buyback derangement syndrome and mis-allocation of capital in a low-interest rate world.
🔔 Go Ahead, Trust The Data
Two jobs for every unemployed person in America? And two jobs for some of the employed ones too? "Well that's what the data says"
🔔 China Sets The Date
China's finally announced the big congress meeting date and Xi's likely third term. More of the same or a brand new China?
🔔 Britain Will Rise Again, We Had An Empire Once
Britain is fundamentally broken. Inflation will soar this winter, everyone will be poor, and to top things off, it'll be cold, dark, wet, and depressing just like every other British winter. But...
🔔 Maximise Shareholder Value & Save The World
"The problem with the term 'maximise shareholder value' is that it has been hijacked by those who incorrectly believe that the goal is to maximise short-term earnings to boost today’s stock price"
🔔 War, Industry & The Future
Zoltan says that Russia and China are challenging the US hegemon. Do either of them really want the job? And will it end in war?
🔔 A Case Of History Repeating
All eyes are on Powell for Jackson Hole. Will they go 50 or 75? So EXCITING! Except there's a far bigger game unfolding...
🔔 The Decay Of Market Narratives
Narratives are part and parcel of a dynamic market environment, fuelled by the exchange of information between traders. Some have shorter shelf lives than others...
🔔 China Recession Vs 'Stimulus'
China's recession is imminent and there's no quick fix. This time really is different
🔔 British Swearing Enters Bull Market
Keep calm and carry on? With these energy prices I can't even afford to put the kettle on for a cup of tea Clive. I'm not bloody calm!
🔔 The Office Real Estate Apocalypse
"For industries typically geared toward office work, the share of hours worked remotely was above 50 percent on average."
🔔 Running Out Of Money
Excess savings gone, credit card debt rising. But it's not all doom and gloom just yet...
🔔 NerdFest - Fed Minutes & The $2 Trillion RRP
Fed minutes are always old news with the occasional nugget of gold for the nerds
🔔 QT: Suck It Up Buttercup...
Quantitative tightening ramps up in September. Are markets ready?
🔔 Credit Markets Don't Know Either
The bond market is 'screaming', curves are inverting, but all's calm in credit markets.
🔔 What Is Money?
Money. Everyone chases around like headless chickens to get more of it. Nobody stops to think what it really is.
🔔 Swing Low Sweet Sentiment
Markets price on the margin Marginal changes can (and do) affect where prices head next.
Inflation is relative
Some people are ecstatic, some in disbelief, some unsurprised... Mixed feelings all around, just like markets, always.
🔔 You've Got To Earn It
We're not wired for easy things. Success is something that must be earnt.
🔔 Why Central Banks Are Hiking To Cure Supply-Driven Inflation
Why are central banks hiking rates when the current inflation is (mainly) supply-driven?
🔔 Learning To Love The Grind
"I struggle turning all the research into good trades. Could you offer some advice?"
🔔 Traders Provide No Value To Society
You offer no value to society, you're not producing anything of worth... What's the point of you?
🔔 Politicians Are Chimps
Tempting as it is to just block them out and completely ignore politics, these chimps (we'll come to it) pass and block laws that can have enormous impacts on markets.
🔔 The Labour Market's Too Strong - Let's Sacrifice It
Sacrifice jobs to save the stock market. You mean the economy? Yeah, sure.
🔔 Peak Inflation (Again). Now The Hard Part...
We've been here before, but the case is getting stronger for an inflation peak. It's a long way back and won't happen overnight...
🔔 China's Problems Continue To Multiply
“The chance of a vicious cycle (declining housing sales and prices, mounting developers’ distress, and deteriorating local government finances) developing is concerning from growth and financial stability perspectives”
🔔 This Ain't Your Daddy's Inflation
...an open-minded and skeptical view of the world, in which economic theories are seen as tools to aid understanding rather than as bodies of received revelation.
🔔 Admit it. You don't know what you're doing...
Recession hits, Fed pivots, Stocks go up. EASY!
What am I thinking now?
I was chatting with Tim the other day and I said to him that my main goal for each day is to end up having to do nothing and having to think nothing. Because that means you're doing something right.
🔔 Fed Preview: Watch What They Say Not What They Do
Everyone knows there's a Fed meeting tonight, they'll hike (at least) 75bps, but when will they cut? Not as soon as markets hope...
🔔 Captain America Explains Demographics (And Why They Matter For Markets)
Demographics are destiny. At least that's how they're described... But demographic changes are like the tortoise of the economic race. Slow, steady & barely moving
🔔 Five Out Of Five: A Leading Index With Predictive Power
This index turned negative ahead of the last five US recessions
🔔 Why The US Economy Is The Best In The World
The US economy is top dog. There shouldn't be any debate about this, yet US demise is always the hottest topic. "Never bet against America"
🔔 The New Agricultural Revolution
How the existential crisis of climate change is driving a new revolution in agriculture
🔔 The New Economy: For Better Or Worse
A brand new world: redefining economic growth, the truth about the WEF, and nudgenomics
🔔 How To Accurately Measure An Economy
GDP is a terrible metric and growth at all costs isn't sustainable. New economic goals and measurements are coming whether you like it or not...
🔔 One Simple Trick To Become A Successful Investor Instead Of Billy Bagholder
Billy Bagholder's sad. Don't be like Billy Bagholder.
🔔 Bro, did you even adjust for inflation?
Bro, you have to adjust everything for inflation if you want to understand inflation. Like, it's not good, but it's not all bad
🔔 The Greatest Doomster You've Never Heard Of
He keeps a low profile, but he's stuck to his guns and been on the money for over two decades
🔔 Almost Time For Gold To Shine
Disclaimer: This is a goldbug free zone. But gold could make sense if things don't pan out as well as economists hope...
🔔 You Long Chinese Stocks, Anon?
The 'easy' trade from the lows is done. Now we're 'on the verge of a bull market' Is a stimulus promise enough to take Chinese stocks higher from here?
🔔 We Are Still So Early
Is the market out of sync? What does it say about risk appetite when pension funds are freeing up cash to become Venture Capitalists?
🔔 Absolute Nonsense
The Fed minutes are ancient history, France aren't taking their debt seriously, and the UK's rate hikes with no economic growth.
🔔 Markets Down? Call The Plunge Protection Team
The PPT's real. But it's not a crack team of traders waiting for the call from JP to start smashing the buy button...
🔔 Euro Down... And Out?
Euro in freefall, Germany panicking. ECB meeting on July 21st is crucial, but it's not looking hopeful...
🔔 Is This Good Or Bad?
Booms are bad, busts are good and recessions are part of the healing process Does it always have to be so... binary?
🔔 Market Legend Howard Marks And His 'Idiosyncratic' Positions
Howard Marks is an absolute legend. If you want to understand cycles, risk, and why forecasts are BS, he's the God-like investor you need
🔔 "We Now Understand *How Little* We Understand About Inflation"
Central bank complacency got us here. Everyone agrees they'll cause a recession to fix inflation. But what happens next?
🔔 EU Fragmentation... What's All The Fuss About?
The EU's in a proper mess. This inflationary, monetary & energy crisis is set to be the sternest test yet of EU unity. Rumours that Draghi's appointing loyal technocrats in Italy...
🔔 The SNB Wants A Strong Franc... Will They Sell Apple To Get It?
The SNB pledged to intervene and keep the Franc strong. That tees up sales of (US) stocks, foreign currencies or bonds.
🔔 The New Iron Curtain
How the G7 decision to compete with China's Belt & Road initiative will divide the world into the dollar 'haves' vs dollar 'have nots'
🔔 The Market Doesn’t Care About Your Morals
If you want to understand markets, you have to put morals to one side. The world doesn't run on platitudes...
🔔 Another Asian Financial Crisis?
Why we could see more yuan weakness ahead, plus risk of a dollar funding squeeze in the smaller Asian economies...
🔔 Small Can Be Beautiful
Zombies on the verge of collapse doesn't tell the whole story. The Veteran's mining for hidden gems in the small-cap world
🔔 Private Equity: Opacity & Leverage = Risk
“Some parts of private equity look like a pyramid scheme” “You know you can sell to another private equity firm for 20 or 30 times earnings. That’s why you can talk about a Ponzi. It’s a circular thing.”
💲 This will be the trigger for a regime shift
Shitting myself over writing this one, mainly because I don't really like calling regime shifts...
🔔 Bank Of England Withdraws Mortgage Affordability Test
Just as the housing market slows, and interest rates rise. Top timing as always. And Cathie Wood's price targets are outrageous for a reason.
🔔 Recession To Beat Inflation
Has the recession already started? 15% of CEO's say yes... Keep a close eye on the zeitgeist and longer-term bonds
🔔 Fed Up With Inflation
Will they do 50, 75, or a gazillion? Don't guess and gamble, read our preview! And then sit it out, like anyone with any sense...
🔔 🔥 Burning Earnings & Shrinking Margins
As soon as the Fed meeting's out of the way, the market's focus will shift to profit margins It won't be pretty...
🔔 Trade the trend!
The Veteran's in command today with his thoughts on the intricate craft of trading and lessons from the battlefield...
🔔 Risks Hiding In Plain Sight
No black swans, just maximum FUD heading into the weekend.
🔔 The Many Layers Of Supply & Demand
"It's simple supply and demand" Except supply and demand isn't always as simple as we'd like it to be...
🔔 Too Much And Not Enough
Too Much Stuff | China's Bad Bank | The One Month Fertilizer Shortage | Not Enough Energy
🔔 ECB: Definitely Here To Close The Spreads
Thursday's ECB meeting will set the stage for hikes in July & September. Fragmentation risks will need to be addressed if they want to go faster...
🔔 Energy Wars: Hopes Vs Reality
The energy picture is looking seriously messy. (Even more) difficult and unpopular decisions lie ahead...
🔔 Misunderstanding QT
Day 1: "QT starts, stocks go down LOL" Day 2: "OK genius. Why was Nasdaq up 2.7% today? Did QT end after one day?" "Dunno, got rekt, LOL"
🔔 Let Me Tell You A Story
We all love a good story. And markets are FULL of storytellers. How well do you understand stories and the rules of the game?
🔔 What's Going On With Oil?
Production targets aren't being hit. IEA's Birol says it'll be worse than the '70s. Oil to $300 if history rhymes...?
🔔 The Secret Life Of Risk
Over to The Veteran today, with his thoughts on the relationships between risk, reward, and what we think we know that just ain't so...
🔔 Bull Markets & Easy Money
If easy money leads to bull markets... And economic fears and social unrest lead to easy money... Are you thinking what we're thinking?
🔔 Where Did The Money Go?
Where did all those trillions go? The whole 'money-printing' thing still really confuses people, so we explained it
🔔 Growing, But Slowing
New home sales freaked everyone out, but this is EXACTLY what the Fed wants. September pivot?
All you should care about are interest rates
If people ain't earning, then people ain't buying.
🔔 Game Over For China
The "China" the West had hoped for isn't joining the party. Game over.
🔔 The Market Is Everything & Everywhere
The cynic knows the price of everything and the value of nothing. If you don't understand the value of markets, you're not paying attention.
🔔 Deliberate Gambling
Everyone's a gambler. But there's a big difference between those that do it deliberately and those that don't.
🔔 The Day... The Consumer Died
Walmart & Target are down bad, profits slashed, CEO's turning negative... The Veteran's worried about the US consumer
🔔 Helicopter Money: You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet
Money printing doesn't explain the inflation we've seen. It's not even close to being that simple. It's not THAT complicated either... And there might be more to come 👇
🔔 Misery: It's For The Best
Misery Index Points To Rising Pain Across The Western World Central Banks: "it's for your own good, we love you, the economy is still growing"