Morning Call - Evergrande makes its bond payment! And what is in store for the FOMC tonight?
Evergrande made the first onshore bond payment and markets have taken this as positive news How hawkish will the Fed be tonight? Dots & projections should add some volatility.
Bearish Canada, bullish Chinese investors pulling investment
I was just on a call with Tim. This is one of many calls that we have during the day. I randomly just call him up and either word vomit, rant or listen to his extremely insightful views
Morning Call: China & Evergrande Special... What next?
China & Evergrande (what else?) & the potential for a lost decade in China. It's not a Lehman Brothers moment, but it will have far-reaching consequences, and if the shadow lending / fraud is as widespread as feared, a fast unwind could be on the cards...
Morning Call: Evergrande has people up in arms, and will Nordstream be an EU sticking point?
Evergrande situation is dominating social media to start the week, with protests and general unrest the themes of the day Nordstream coming online just as Merkel leaves office & ahead of a very expensive energy winter
🔔 The NGMI Edition: Electric Vehicles, Supply Chains & Politicians
Electric Vehicles are 'only for the rich' Supply chains disrupting production well into next year... When's the political revolution?
Morning Call: Chip Shortages, Jackson Hole and MORE China policy changes
Chip shortages are set to continue until the end of 2022, any rate hike clues at Jackson Hole? Everyone knows the taper is coming soon, but keep an eye out for clues separating hike timing from taper. Also, even more China policy changes and talk targeted RRR (rate) cuts...
Morning call: We talk central bank messaging, Jackson Hole and obviously... inflation
Central banks not getting their message across Yields not reflecting or compensating for current/future inflation volatility Powell's speech
Morning Call: Reversal in risk sentiment & more Evergrande woes
Risk sentiment saw a complete turnaround into the close Friday and continued today. Is it going to last? Australia are looking to change their approach and 'learning to live' with Covid, New Zealand now have over 100 cases and Tim thinks they'll change strategy soon too.
Morning Call: Are equities about to roll over? Will the Fed delay tapering?
Growth concerns are everywhere. Commodity prices have rolled over, credit impulse spells doom for the Russell, and doubts over companies continuing confidence that they can pass on higher prices.
🔔 Economic power shifts, marshmallows & manipulated data
Global economic power continues to shift from West to East Stick cooperation into your economic models! Can China's official data be trusted?
'Where's your head at?'
If you've never watched Love Island - I have a girlfriend so I am practically forced to - this is a question that is asked by the contestants to their prospective partners to figure out the basic human relationship formation, as to whether someone actually likes them or not.
Morning Call: One Covid case = NZ lockdown & rate hike bets reversed. Risk off dominates in Asia
Rate hike bets were unwound, NZD lost 1.5% on the session Also, Evergrande's CEO has 'stepped down', and China risks continue to bubble..
Morning Call: Afghanistan has fallen, China weighs on the Aussie and UK house prices facing a peak
the situation in Afghanistan, and the Aussie dollar getting hit by a double whammy of China slowdown (and data misses) alongside Australian lockdowns
🔔 Football's getting 'Messi' & Bilderberg for economists...
Football's business insanity is fantastic, but those finances are a long way from fixed... Heard of the Bilderberg meetings? Turns out there's an economist version Bleak outlook for Thailands' tourism industry
Morning Call: More Evergrande woes, CPI shows some peaking and are there growth concerns?
Evergrande are back in the headlines for the wrong reasons. CPI peak yesterday? Probably Growth concerns may return...
Morning Call: What's in store for today's CPI? Transitory or not and we touch on supply chains
Looking ahead to the main event: US CPI and the importance of diving into the components, not just the headline numbers... Plus, the bigger picture for inflation
Morning Call: Lending as a recovery barometer, China to cut rates, oil and bond yields have separate drivers
Lending as a recovery barometer, how larger (unproductive) companies have been able to finance via capital markets China look increasingly likely to cut rates, oil & bond yields are moving up together, but not necessarily for the same reasons...
🔔 Higher wages & index misunderstandings... Will the Fed spoil the party?
Wages are going up (for now): can the trend continue? Index hate (especially the DXY) Kaplan's deeper insights on a Fed taper decision
Morning Call: Goldman downgrades Chinese growth, more dumb ideas and the gold 'flash' crash
What happened to gold? Also, China's growth forecasts were downgraded by JPM & Goldman for Q3, but it's a case of postponing the growth rather than losing it (much), they say...
🔔 Hey China, we really miss you, let's meet up. xoxo
Loveletters to China from US trade groups S&P to 4700 this year, then 10,000 Tesla isn't in the big boys EV club Comparing WW2 blackouts to vaccinations
Morning Call: Gut feeling, Evergrande $ bonds trade at 21c and what to ignore...
Developing a gut feeling for trades Difference between gut feel and impulsiveness The big picture matters more but gets little media coverage Evergrande rapidly going under and the big structural issues in China New Zealand bulls getting ahead of themselves on hikes...
Morning Call: EURGBP doom!, BoE Guidance, and is the Aussie vaccine trade over?
Can EURGBP finally break below 0.85? How hawkish will the BOE actually be? They HAVE to 'taper' if they plan to continue QE until the end of the year... Australian vaccination rate is picking up
📞 Morning Call: Question Time!
Risks to focus on (China crackdown, Gulf tensions, continued supply chain disruptions & EU politics as a longer term theme) Resources for research beyond Bloomberg Analysing the dollar (don't just use DXY) And the end of the UK furlough scheme / employment prospects
Morning Call: Structure of inflation, shipping is still broken and peak growth?
'Peak growth' narratives, & structural long term DIS-inflationary pressures. China looks to be following the same path as Japan rather than taking over the world. Shipping is still very broken and to remain that way for a while yet.
RBA continue taper, China brands online gaming 'spiritual opium'
AUD rallies on RBA decision NZD rallies after mortgage/housing policy announcement Tencent tumbles 10% on CCP gaming crackdown
Morning Call: Unemployment melancholy, AUDJPY the pain trade and understanding China
Today we focused on the potential stickiness of high unemployment, UK furlough changes, understanding the policy risk when investing in China and some big levels in AUDJPY.
Morning Call: FOMC was a bore, Independent Thinking and FTSE resurgence?
Powell's consistency, the importance of a healthy skepticism, and could the techless wonder be on the verge of a surge?
🔔 The beats go on, but will Robinhood IPO mark the top?
Massive earnings beats continue, Robinhood IPO looms large over BTFDers and the Dividend Aristocrats maintain that boring is best...
Morning Call: FOMC, South Korean Exports show whether firms are spending and Apple the BEHEMOTH
Today we talked about the FOMC meeting, Big Tech and their big earning beats, especially Apple, plus South Korean exports as a leading indicator for forward EPS growth. Plus China's new nuclear silos (and the ever-present Taiwan risk)...
Morning Call: Earnings, China (again) and dumb charts
Another brutal selloff in China & Hong Kong overnight, the shortage of quality assets, Airpods as a standalone business, Tesla actually making more money from vehicle sales than regulatory credits, and the potential rotation from growth into cyclicals.
🔔 Today is Monday so this will be the BEST thing you've ever read
What's Monday got to do with it being the best? Don't give me cheap "correlation doesn't equal causation" gibes. It gets old and the burden of proof is on you.
Macrodesiac Morning Call - Private Equity LOVES the UK, FTSE bid?
Today's topics were government Covid policies (are they paying attention to the right data?) a quick update on the China property situation, and Private Equity eyeing up the UK...
Morning Call: COVID, China and Repo Delusion!
Join David & Tim every weekday morning at 9am UK time live in the Discord, or listen back here from 10am each day! We'll be talking about anything that pops up whether it's market, politics or macro related with a special guest every now and then.
China recovery stabilising, Aussie unemployment beat
Fears of a China slowdown seem unfounded for now. The data was reasonably encouraging, with growth in both industrial output & retail sales.
Dovish RBA on hold until 2024, RBNZ to hike in November?
RBA 'central scenario' is no hikes until 2024, RBNZ expected to hike in November after a strong NZIER survey. OPEC+ negotiations just getting started?
🔔 Big Tech breakups won't happen: Let them fight it out!
A fight to the death, Gladiator style, then regulate the winner. The Hunger Games for Big Tech (but who gets the streaming rights...?)
If everyone thinks there will be tightening, there will be no tightening
The market is perceiving the inflation rate over the next 10 years to be sitting at ~2.3%. This is not exactly the rabid, regime changing inflation number that you would expect really, is it? And now we can look at inflation over the longer term.
🔔 'David, what's your favourite stock over the next five years?'
OK, so last week we received a handful of questions from you. There were a tonne to pick from, but I particularly liked this question Hi David, (thx for the info) - what’s your single favourite stock for the next five years?
🔔 Here's why Amazon & MGM are the perfect match...
Did Amazon overpay or is there more to this story? $8.45 billion is a high price for MGM who were reportedly available for a mere $5 billion at the end of last year... (& get to know Big Tech better)
Is it a Weimar? is it a Zimbabwe? No, it's Transitory... Man
As a rule of thumb... usually the things financial media shout loudest about aren't the things the broader market cares about (and the inflation roar is deafening...)
AM Notes: Yellen Moonwalks
Yellen's comments yesterday got a lot of attention, but sadly she didn't moooooonwalk. She 'walked her comments back'. Either way, the message really didn't deserve the amount of attention it got... It was purely who the messenger was/is, rather than the message itself...
AM Notes: Release The Owl
Risk sentiment remains buoyant, with Asian indices firmly in the green following on from strong U.S. performance yesterday... Yesterdays main event: BOC tapers, brings forward rate hike expectations... CAD reacted positively... Wells Fargo now forecast USDCAD to
The Archegos factor: Don't let FX hedge funds eat you due to greedy banks
First it was the Swiss National Bank exercising its prerogative. Next it was the government and its lockdowns. Now it's the fragility of the risk management procedure in the banks....
Dexit: Complacency kills
Does anyone remember before 2016? The year we had Brexit... The year Trump was voted into office? Does anyone recall the sheer shock when both campaigns won? I do. The complacency leading up to both was rife. And as the title says, complacency kills. We've seen something pretty drama.
Premium: An Open Letter to the Bank of England and the Chancellor
Why aren't you baffled? I'll presume that you don't like Professor Mandelbrot's work, or maybe you're just not familiar with it. His work rejects the orthodoxy taught in finance, how markets work and therefore by extension, how policy making probably should be conducted.
Premium: Long Convexity - Want More Crypto Buying Success?
But there's something that I have been thinking about quite a bit recently, and that is whether there is a way to really filter down coins and know whether one has a better chance of succeeding than others, out of the many thousands that are out there.
FOMC... Time for the Fed to take the bond bears out?
This meeting will see the biggest test yet of the Fed's 'expectations management'. AIT is supposed to reinforce 'lower for longer' - will the dots back that up?
Morning Notes: China-Taiwan conflict in the news again
Quick sentiment check: Asian markets green overnight (even China) Nasdaq leading the way in early trade... In the news China to strengthen anti-trust regulatory powers: state media China will strengthen anti-trust regulatory powers to push forward healthy, sustainable
Dumping Tech - Rotating Into Value - This Time IS Different...
That old chestnut... No love for tech so far today and China stocks are getting hammered... Chinext down over 4%, Shenzen Component down 3%, Hang Seng Tech Index UGLY, now down 6%... NQ down just over 1%..
🔔 Emerging Market and Budget Special
OK Rishi, well done I think he's passed the test here, by providing fiscal certainty to the market. Here's a quick rundown of what he has laid out in the Spring budget... Rather than reinvent the wheel, you can check out the full budget breakdown here 👇
Bonds Calm - Vaccinations, UK Budget & OPEC in focus
Last week was pretty wild as volatility spiked into month end, and there is plenty to look forward to this week too. Risk is back on so far with a positive session in Asia continuing in London...
🔔 Old for you, young for us and seriously, have sex more if you want growth
🔥 Hot or 🚫 not? In partnership with Equos. The NASDAQ listed, institutional crypto exchange. 🔥 Yields, Yields, Yields Corrr blimey, guv'na. Yields have had it off.
🔔 Why everything you know about tax is wrong, with special guest, Dominic Frisby
A Fantastic Chat with Dominic Frisby 🏡 Georgism fixes everything 💸 Why QE is a tax on the poor 💄 Beauty beats education
WFH is here to stay & London is still the financial hub of Europe
Quick note. Me and Tim jumped on for the pre-US open update We're doing these via Stereo from now on... You can listen to today's 👉 here 👈 What did we cover?💥 Inflation (yes again, but it’s important) 💥 Share