🔔 Quantitative 101: Easing, Tapering & Tightening (QE/QT)
Differences between Quantitative Easing, Quantitative Tapering & Quantitative Tightening often confuse people. #MacrodesiacFixesThis
Sell All Stocks... It's Over! Apart from the NASDAQ
We're now in a technical market. Flow matters, fundamentals are relatively priced in, we now have to see how scared the market is. Have a listen to our thoughts going forward.
🔔 China's Louis Vuitton Love Affair Is On Borrowed Time
Commoditized luxury isn't something a 'socially aware' China should buy into.. “From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs”
Morning Call: How a hedge fund advisor thinks about markets!
Absolute pleasure to be joined by Hedge Fund Advisor Buena Patria today. His view on rates, fx, equities and how they all combine is golden and will seriously help you try to understand your own process better!
Morning Call - Has there been a market shift post FOMC? W/ Adrian Grimaldi Alberts
💥 We're joined by Adrian Grimaldi Alberts to discuss the SP500, China, and what the state of the market is after the Fed's decision.
🔔 FX: Beta Kings... Emerging Market Currencies Part 1
Rounding off the FX series with the best of the bunch. If you enjoy volatility, pain, and always go back to your crazy ex for more, then these are the currencies for you!
Morning Call: Fed, China's Singletons & Misplaced Optimism
David's disappointed that there are no Fed speakers this week. China's demographics are inescapable, and optimism about the future and things being different is likely misplaced.
Morning Call: Apple Taking on Tesla, NZD Surprise?
Today's topics were Apple's autonomous car rumours and what it might mean for Tesla, plus speculation that the RBNZ could hike by 50bps next week
What Japanese car exports tell us about the biggest problems right now?
In the examples above, we reckon that we can isolate the main factor to supply issues as really being about transportation, with some obvious caveats that there have been some manufacturing bottlenecks where manufacturing has shut down due to COVID restrictions.
Morning Call - We talk policy errors and the state of play for Canada (why is Trudeau an idiot?)
Ending this week talking about the non-dynamism of the Canadian economy, Trudeau, those poor hedge funds being bullied by central banks and a big week ahead for the pound...
Morning Call - Why being egotistical in markets gets you nowhere, and inflation... again...
Today we were chatting about inflation (yawn), as it's US CPI day. Then we moved on to the ego, and something we've noticed a lot lately...
🔔 "Central Banks Are Trapped, They've LOST CONTROL"
Depending who you listen to, central banks are TRAPPED, have LOST CONTROL, or are RECKLESSLY OUT OF CONTROL... What if I told you they weren't ever IN control...?
Commodities set to take a breather? We reckon 'yeah'
Perhaps if you are blind, deaf and dumb, you could be excused from ignoring the mammoth commodities rally over the past year and a bit. Let's refresh our heads at what's happened.
Morning Call: STIR market in disarray, the employment situation and dumb people
Today we take a look at the massive moves in Short Term Interest Rates and what's driving them. Also, the US employment situation comes into focus at the end of next week.
Morning Call - Why don't people understand hyperinflation?
After @jack's hyperinflation hyperbole, Tim and I thought it relevant to chat about hyperinflation and the poor defining of terms associated with it.
Exclusive: The Role Of Intuition In Trading Financial Markets
I've followed @cloudy_cl, Chief "Inshallah" Trader on Twitter for a long time, and apart from his banter, he has some fantastic insights, especially more recently (I reckon he's cracked the code about providing top level insights from a perspective of experience).
Morning Call - BoE & inflation expectations, Fed officials' stock trading ban!
Revisiting the BOE after the new chief economists comments ahead of the next meeting... Consumers are a terrible judge of inflation expectations, but the market gauge is soaring too with 10 year breakevens at 25 year highs... And Fed officials are now (kind of) banned from trading...
Morning Call - Will the BoE hike? Oil and monetary policy and Facebook's rebrand
Are the BOE going to hike if inflation is driven more by higher energy prices which actually weigh on the core economy? Or is this more of a communication strategy to reassure markets that they are ready to act... Expectations management?
🔔 Supply Chain Fixed & Christmas Saved: Thank You Mr President!
🚨 Sarcasm detected! POTUS is trying to fix the supply chains Gas companies are failing Taleb's smugly pointing at 'antifragile'
🔔 BlackRock, Correlations & the Monthly Deutsche Bank Lawsuit
BlackRock taking over the world, looking for that $10 trillion Correlations are for Christmas, not for life And Deutsche Bank (allegedly) doing their thing again...
🔔 "Every single stock she has bought in the last two years has gone up significantly"
The greatest trader that ever lived is a woman Should central banks be hiking rates NOW to fight inflation? Move over Klarna, the big boys are back in town...
Morning Call: Equity indices are in a technical market!
Today's call focused on issues roiling markets, including supply chain pressures, energy markets, and a more depressed consumer (want to buy, can't buy).
Morning Call: Petrol Hysteria, China Land Reforms?
Today we focused on hysteria and how it's usually a brilliant contrarian signal for traders. Also, the CCP are stepping in to land auctions, and regional governments want pre-sale funds ring-fenced.
🔔 Are you concerned about the current fluctuations in the world's economy?
Every time I try to watch a YouTube video, I get asked that question 👆 Here's why you shouldn't be even a tiny bit concerned...
Morning Call: Evergrande misses bond payment and what will come of the German election?
China's economic future won't be defined by bond payments. Replacing Merkel in Germany will be as challenging as replacing Fergie at Man United...
Morning Call - Evergrande makes its bond payment! And what is in store for the FOMC tonight?
Evergrande made the first onshore bond payment and markets have taken this as positive news How hawkish will the Fed be tonight? Dots & projections should add some volatility.
Bearish Canada, bullish Chinese investors pulling investment
I was just on a call with Tim. This is one of many calls that we have during the day. I randomly just call him up and either word vomit, rant or listen to his extremely insightful views
Morning Call: China & Evergrande Special... What next?
China & Evergrande (what else?) & the potential for a lost decade in China. It's not a Lehman Brothers moment, but it will have far-reaching consequences, and if the shadow lending / fraud is as widespread as feared, a fast unwind could be on the cards...
Morning Call: Evergrande has people up in arms, and will Nordstream be an EU sticking point?
Evergrande situation is dominating social media to start the week, with protests and general unrest the themes of the day Nordstream coming online just as Merkel leaves office & ahead of a very expensive energy winter
🔔 The NGMI Edition: Electric Vehicles, Supply Chains & Politicians
Electric Vehicles are 'only for the rich' Supply chains disrupting production well into next year... When's the political revolution?
Morning Call: Chip Shortages, Jackson Hole and MORE China policy changes
Chip shortages are set to continue until the end of 2022, any rate hike clues at Jackson Hole? Everyone knows the taper is coming soon, but keep an eye out for clues separating hike timing from taper. Also, even more China policy changes and talk targeted RRR (rate) cuts...
Morning call: We talk central bank messaging, Jackson Hole and obviously... inflation
Central banks not getting their message across Yields not reflecting or compensating for current/future inflation volatility Powell's speech
Morning Call: Reversal in risk sentiment & more Evergrande woes
Risk sentiment saw a complete turnaround into the close Friday and continued today. Is it going to last? Australia are looking to change their approach and 'learning to live' with Covid, New Zealand now have over 100 cases and Tim thinks they'll change strategy soon too.
Morning Call: Are equities about to roll over? Will the Fed delay tapering?
Growth concerns are everywhere. Commodity prices have rolled over, credit impulse spells doom for the Russell, and doubts over companies continuing confidence that they can pass on higher prices.
🔔 Economic power shifts, marshmallows & manipulated data
Global economic power continues to shift from West to East Stick cooperation into your economic models! Can China's official data be trusted?
'Where's your head at?'
If you've never watched Love Island - I have a girlfriend so I am practically forced to - this is a question that is asked by the contestants to their prospective partners to figure out the basic human relationship formation, as to whether someone actually likes them or not.
Morning Call: One Covid case = NZ lockdown & rate hike bets reversed. Risk off dominates in Asia
Rate hike bets were unwound, NZD lost 1.5% on the session Also, Evergrande's CEO has 'stepped down', and China risks continue to bubble..
Morning Call: Afghanistan has fallen, China weighs on the Aussie and UK house prices facing a peak
the situation in Afghanistan, and the Aussie dollar getting hit by a double whammy of China slowdown (and data misses) alongside Australian lockdowns
🔔 Football's getting 'Messi' & Bilderberg for economists...
Football's business insanity is fantastic, but those finances are a long way from fixed... Heard of the Bilderberg meetings? Turns out there's an economist version Bleak outlook for Thailands' tourism industry
Morning Call: More Evergrande woes, CPI shows some peaking and are there growth concerns?
Evergrande are back in the headlines for the wrong reasons. CPI peak yesterday? Probably Growth concerns may return...
Morning Call: What's in store for today's CPI? Transitory or not and we touch on supply chains
Looking ahead to the main event: US CPI and the importance of diving into the components, not just the headline numbers... Plus, the bigger picture for inflation
Morning Call: Lending as a recovery barometer, China to cut rates, oil and bond yields have separate drivers
Lending as a recovery barometer, how larger (unproductive) companies have been able to finance via capital markets China look increasingly likely to cut rates, oil & bond yields are moving up together, but not necessarily for the same reasons...
🔔 Higher wages & index misunderstandings... Will the Fed spoil the party?
Wages are going up (for now): can the trend continue? Index hate (especially the DXY) Kaplan's deeper insights on a Fed taper decision
Morning Call: Goldman downgrades Chinese growth, more dumb ideas and the gold 'flash' crash
What happened to gold? Also, China's growth forecasts were downgraded by JPM & Goldman for Q3, but it's a case of postponing the growth rather than losing it (much), they say...
🔔 Hey China, we really miss you, let's meet up. xoxo
Loveletters to China from US trade groups S&P to 4700 this year, then 10,000 Tesla isn't in the big boys EV club Comparing WW2 blackouts to vaccinations
Morning Call: Gut feeling, Evergrande $ bonds trade at 21c and what to ignore...
Developing a gut feeling for trades Difference between gut feel and impulsiveness The big picture matters more but gets little media coverage Evergrande rapidly going under and the big structural issues in China New Zealand bulls getting ahead of themselves on hikes...
Morning Call: EURGBP doom!, BoE Guidance, and is the Aussie vaccine trade over?
Can EURGBP finally break below 0.85? How hawkish will the BOE actually be? They HAVE to 'taper' if they plan to continue QE until the end of the year... Australian vaccination rate is picking up
📞 Morning Call: Question Time!
Risks to focus on (China crackdown, Gulf tensions, continued supply chain disruptions & EU politics as a longer term theme) Resources for research beyond Bloomberg Analysing the dollar (don't just use DXY) And the end of the UK furlough scheme / employment prospects
Morning Call: Structure of inflation, shipping is still broken and peak growth?
'Peak growth' narratives, & structural long term DIS-inflationary pressures. China looks to be following the same path as Japan rather than taking over the world. Shipping is still very broken and to remain that way for a while yet.
RBA continue taper, China brands online gaming 'spiritual opium'
AUD rallies on RBA decision NZD rallies after mortgage/housing policy announcement Tencent tumbles 10% on CCP gaming crackdown
Morning Call: Unemployment melancholy, AUDJPY the pain trade and understanding China
Today we focused on the potential stickiness of high unemployment, UK furlough changes, understanding the policy risk when investing in China and some big levels in AUDJPY.
Morning Call: FOMC was a bore, Independent Thinking and FTSE resurgence?
Powell's consistency, the importance of a healthy skepticism, and could the techless wonder be on the verge of a surge?
🔔 The beats go on, but will Robinhood IPO mark the top?
Massive earnings beats continue, Robinhood IPO looms large over BTFDers and the Dividend Aristocrats maintain that boring is best...
Morning Call: FOMC, South Korean Exports show whether firms are spending and Apple the BEHEMOTH
Today we talked about the FOMC meeting, Big Tech and their big earning beats, especially Apple, plus South Korean exports as a leading indicator for forward EPS growth. Plus China's new nuclear silos (and the ever-present Taiwan risk)...
Morning Call: Earnings, China (again) and dumb charts
Another brutal selloff in China & Hong Kong overnight, the shortage of quality assets, Airpods as a standalone business, Tesla actually making more money from vehicle sales than regulatory credits, and the potential rotation from growth into cyclicals.
🔔 Today is Monday so this will be the BEST thing you've ever read
What's Monday got to do with it being the best? Don't give me cheap "correlation doesn't equal causation" gibes. It gets old and the burden of proof is on you.
Macrodesiac Morning Call - Private Equity LOVES the UK, FTSE bid?
Today's topics were government Covid policies (are they paying attention to the right data?) a quick update on the China property situation, and Private Equity eyeing up the UK...
Morning Call: COVID, China and Repo Delusion!
Join David & Tim every weekday morning at 9am UK time live in the Discord, or listen back here from 10am each day! We'll be talking about anything that pops up whether it's market, politics or macro related with a special guest every now and then.
China recovery stabilising, Aussie unemployment beat
Fears of a China slowdown seem unfounded for now. The data was reasonably encouraging, with growth in both industrial output & retail sales.
Dovish RBA on hold until 2024, RBNZ to hike in November?
RBA 'central scenario' is no hikes until 2024, RBNZ expected to hike in November after a strong NZIER survey. OPEC+ negotiations just getting started?
🔔 Big Tech breakups won't happen: Let them fight it out!
A fight to the death, Gladiator style, then regulate the winner. The Hunger Games for Big Tech (but who gets the streaming rights...?)
If everyone thinks there will be tightening, there will be no tightening
The market is perceiving the inflation rate over the next 10 years to be sitting at ~2.3%. This is not exactly the rabid, regime changing inflation number that you would expect really, is it? And now we can look at inflation over the longer term.
🔔 'David, what's your favourite stock over the next five years?'
OK, so last week we received a handful of questions from you. There were a tonne to pick from, but I particularly liked this question Hi David, (thx for the info) - what’s your single favourite stock for the next five years?
🔔 Here's why Amazon & MGM are the perfect match...
Did Amazon overpay or is there more to this story? $8.45 billion is a high price for MGM who were reportedly available for a mere $5 billion at the end of last year... (& get to know Big Tech better)