22 September 2022
🔔 A Great British Plan For A Great British Problem
Cut corporate taxes, more money for the bankers, cut stamp duty to keep the property market propped up. What's Truss up to?
Opening Belle
21 September 2022
🔔 Never Go Full Volcker
Everyone knows you never go full Volcker. The only Fed preview you need.
20 September 2022
🔔 Context Peasants. CONTEXT
Markets go up and down, fortunes are made and lost. Everything is cyclical. King Charles says we need a bull market in critical thinking.
16 September 2022
🔔 The Illusion Of Knowledge
"No amount of sophistication is going to allay the fact that all of your knowledge is about the past and all your decisions are about the future"
15 September 2022
🔔 Inflation In The Real World
Does inflation really hurt the poor most? "Our understanding of inflation is not helped by a world increasingly dominated by sound-bite economics"
14 September 2022
🔔 The Evolution From Growth Company To Business
Great business you have there, does it actually make any money?
13 September 2022
🔔 Housing: The Big Short Rerun?
It's not 2008 all over again. Some housing pain is assured, but there's a lot that's different this time...
12 September 2022
🔔 No Free Lunches
The UK energy price cap fixes short-term problems, but there's no free lunch, and the bill will come due in future.
09 September 2022
🔔 Business Moats: Can't Touch This
Every company wants a deep, wide moat. Something that protects the company from invaders barrelling in and stealing the loot. But not all moats are created equal
08 September 2022
🔔 Central Banks: How's Your Poker Face?
Central Bank Strategy: Give nothing away, keep betting big and hope for the best.
07 September 2022
🔔The REAL Reason Stocks Are Crashing
OK. So you want to know the REAL reason stocks are down? We plugged the data into our proprietary Macrodesiac Model™ to bring you the answer.
06 September 2022
🔔 Nuclear Future
Nuclear power will be the bedrock of electricity markets around the globe.
05 September 2022
🔔 GBP Hopium And The Future
Truss is in. GBP's stopped falling. Hopium rally inbound?
02 September 2022
🔔 The Problem With Buybacks
Buyback derangement syndrome and mis-allocation of capital in a low-interest rate world.
01 September 2022
🔔 Go Ahead, Trust The Data
Two jobs for every unemployed person in America? And two jobs for some of the employed ones too? "Well that's what the data says"
31 August 2022
🔔 China Sets The Date
China's finally announced the big congress meeting date and Xi's likely third term. More of the same or a brand new China?
30 August 2022
🔔 Britain Will Rise Again, We Had An Empire Once
Britain is fundamentally broken. Inflation will soar this winter, everyone will be poor, and to top things off, it'll be cold, dark, wet, and depressing just like every other British winter. But...
29 August 2022
🔔 Maximise Shareholder Value & Save The World
"The problem with the term 'maximise shareholder value' is that it has been hijacked by those who incorrectly believe that the goal is to maximise short-term earnings to boost today’s stock price"
26 August 2022
🔔 War, Industry & The Future
Zoltan says that Russia and China are challenging the US hegemon. Do either of them really want the job? And will it end in war?
25 August 2022
🔔 A Case Of History Repeating
All eyes are on Powell for Jackson Hole. Will they go 50 or 75? So EXCITING! Except there's a far bigger game unfolding...
24 August 2022
🔔 The Decay Of Market Narratives
Narratives are part and parcel of a dynamic market environment, fuelled by the exchange of information between traders. Some have shorter shelf lives than others...
23 August 2022
🔔 China Recession Vs 'Stimulus'
China's recession is imminent and there's no quick fix. This time really is different
22 August 2022
🔔 British Swearing Enters Bull Market
Keep calm and carry on? With these energy prices I can't even afford to put the kettle on for a cup of tea Clive. I'm not bloody calm!
19 August 2022
🔔 The Office Real Estate Apocalypse
"For industries typically geared toward office work, the share of hours worked remotely was above 50 percent on average."
18 August 2022
🔔 Running Out Of Money
Excess savings gone, credit card debt rising. But it's not all doom and gloom just yet...
17 August 2022
🔔 NerdFest - Fed Minutes & The $2 Trillion RRP
Fed minutes are always old news with the occasional nugget of gold for the nerds
16 August 2022
🔔 QT: Suck It Up Buttercup...
Quantitative tightening ramps up in September. Are markets ready?
15 August 2022
🔔 Credit Markets Don't Know Either
The bond market is 'screaming', curves are inverting, but all's calm in credit markets.
12 August 2022
🔔 What Is Money?
Money. Everyone chases around like headless chickens to get more of it. Nobody stops to think what it really is.
11 August 2022
🔔 Swing Low Sweet Sentiment
Markets price on the margin Marginal changes can (and do) affect where prices head next.
10 August 2022
🔔 You've Got To Earn It
We're not wired for easy things. Success is something that must be earnt.
09 August 2022
🔔 Why Central Banks Are Hiking To Cure Supply-Driven Inflation
Why are central banks hiking rates when the current inflation is (mainly) supply-driven?
08 August 2022
🔔 Learning To Love The Grind
"I struggle turning all the research into good trades. Could you offer some advice?"
05 August 2022
🔔 Traders Provide No Value To Society
You offer no value to society, you're not producing anything of worth... What's the point of you?
04 August 2022
🔔 Politicians Are Chimps
Tempting as it is to just block them out and completely ignore politics, these chimps (we'll come to it) pass and block laws that can have enormous impacts on markets.
03 August 2022
🔔 The Labour Market's Too Strong - Let's Sacrifice It
Sacrifice jobs to save the stock market. You mean the economy? Yeah, sure.
02 August 2022
🔔 Peak Inflation (Again). Now The Hard Part...
We've been here before, but the case is getting stronger for an inflation peak. It's a long way back and won't happen overnight...
01 August 2022
🔔 China's Problems Continue To Multiply
“The chance of a vicious cycle (declining housing sales and prices, mounting developers’ distress, and deteriorating local government finances) developing is concerning from growth and financial stability perspectives”
29 July 2022
🔔 This Ain't Your Daddy's Inflation
...an open-minded and skeptical view of the world, in which economic theories are seen as tools to aid understanding rather than as bodies of received revelation.
28 July 2022
🔔 Admit it. You don't know what you're doing...
Recession hits, Fed pivots, Stocks go up. EASY!
27 July 2022
🔔 Fed Preview: Watch What They Say Not What They Do
Everyone knows there's a Fed meeting tonight, they'll hike (at least) 75bps, but when will they cut? Not as soon as markets hope...
25 July 2022
🔔 Captain America Explains Demographics (And Why They Matter For Markets)
Demographics are destiny. At least that's how they're described... But demographic changes are like the tortoise of the economic race. Slow, steady & barely moving
22 July 2022
🔔 Five Out Of Five: A Leading Index With Predictive Power
This index turned negative ahead of the last five US recessions
21 July 2022
🔔 Why The US Economy Is The Best In The World
The US economy is top dog. There shouldn't be any debate about this, yet US demise is always the hottest topic. "Never bet against America"
20 July 2022
🔔 The New Agricultural Revolution
How the existential crisis of climate change is driving a new revolution in agriculture
19 July 2022
🔔 The New Economy: For Better Or Worse
A brand new world: redefining economic growth, the truth about the WEF, and nudgenomics
18 July 2022
🔔 How To Accurately Measure An Economy
GDP is a terrible metric and growth at all costs isn't sustainable. New economic goals and measurements are coming whether you like it or not...
15 July 2022
🔔 One Simple Trick To Become A Successful Investor Instead Of Billy Bagholder
Billy Bagholder's sad. Don't be like Billy Bagholder.
14 July 2022
🔔 Bro, did you even adjust for inflation?
Bro, you have to adjust everything for inflation if you want to understand inflation. Like, it's not good, but it's not all bad
13 July 2022
🔔 The Greatest Doomster You've Never Heard Of
He keeps a low profile, but he's stuck to his guns and been on the money for over two decades
12 July 2022
🔔 Almost Time For Gold To Shine
Disclaimer: This is a goldbug free zone. But gold could make sense if things don't pan out as well as economists hope...
11 July 2022
🔔 You Long Chinese Stocks, Anon?
The 'easy' trade from the lows is done. Now we're 'on the verge of a bull market' Is a stimulus promise enough to take Chinese stocks higher from here?
08 July 2022
🔔 We Are Still So Early
Is the market out of sync? What does it say about risk appetite when pension funds are freeing up cash to become Venture Capitalists?
07 July 2022
🔔 Absolute Nonsense
The Fed minutes are ancient history, France aren't taking their debt seriously, and the UK's rate hikes with no economic growth.
06 July 2022
🔔 Markets Down? Call The Plunge Protection Team
The PPT's real. But it's not a crack team of traders waiting for the call from JP to start smashing the buy button...
05 July 2022
🔔 Euro Down... And Out?
Euro in freefall, Germany panicking. ECB meeting on July 21st is crucial, but it's not looking hopeful...
04 July 2022
🔔 Is This Good Or Bad?
Booms are bad, busts are good and recessions are part of the healing process Does it always have to be so... binary?
01 July 2022
🔔 Market Legend Howard Marks And His 'Idiosyncratic' Positions
Howard Marks is an absolute legend. If you want to understand cycles, risk, and why forecasts are BS, he's the God-like investor you need
30 June 2022
🔔 "We Now Understand *How Little* We Understand About Inflation"
Central bank complacency got us here. Everyone agrees they'll cause a recession to fix inflation. But what happens next?
29 June 2022
🔔 EU Fragmentation... What's All The Fuss About?
The EU's in a proper mess. This inflationary, monetary & energy crisis is set to be the sternest test yet of EU unity. Rumours that Draghi's appointing loyal technocrats in Italy...
28 June 2022
🔔 The SNB Wants A Strong Franc... Will They Sell Apple To Get It?
The SNB pledged to intervene and keep the Franc strong. That tees up sales of (US) stocks, foreign currencies or bonds.
27 June 2022
🔔 The New Iron Curtain
How the G7 decision to compete with China's Belt & Road initiative will divide the world into the dollar 'haves' vs dollar 'have nots'
24 June 2022
🔔 The Market Doesn’t Care About Your Morals
If you want to understand markets, you have to put morals to one side. The world doesn't run on platitudes...
23 June 2022
🔔 Another Asian Financial Crisis?
Why we could see more yuan weakness ahead, plus risk of a dollar funding squeeze in the smaller Asian economies...
22 June 2022
🔔 Small Can Be Beautiful
Zombies on the verge of collapse doesn't tell the whole story. The Veteran's mining for hidden gems in the small-cap world
21 June 2022
🔔 Private Equity: Opacity & Leverage = Risk
“Some parts of private equity look like a pyramid scheme” “You know you can sell to another private equity firm for 20 or 30 times earnings. That’s why you can talk about a Ponzi. It’s a circular thing.”
20 June 2022
🔔 Bank Of England Withdraws Mortgage Affordability Test
Just as the housing market slows, and interest rates rise. Top timing as always. And Cathie Wood's price targets are outrageous for a reason.
17 June 2022
🔔 Recession To Beat Inflation
Has the recession already started? 15% of CEO's say yes... Keep a close eye on the zeitgeist and longer-term bonds
15 June 2022
🔔 Fed Up With Inflation
Will they do 50, 75, or a gazillion? Don't guess and gamble, read our preview! And then sit it out, like anyone with any sense...
14 June 2022
🔔 🔥 Burning Earnings & Shrinking Margins
As soon as the Fed meeting's out of the way, the market's focus will shift to profit margins It won't be pretty...
13 June 2022
🔔 Trade the trend!
The Veteran's in command today with his thoughts on the intricate craft of trading and lessons from the battlefield...
10 June 2022
🔔 Risks Hiding In Plain Sight
No black swans, just maximum FUD heading into the weekend.
09 June 2022
🔔 The Many Layers Of Supply & Demand
"It's simple supply and demand" Except supply and demand isn't always as simple as we'd like it to be...
08 June 2022
🔔 Too Much And Not Enough
Too Much Stuff | China's Bad Bank | The One Month Fertilizer Shortage | Not Enough Energy
07 June 2022
🔔 ECB: Definitely Here To Close The Spreads
Thursday's ECB meeting will set the stage for hikes in July & September. Fragmentation risks will need to be addressed if they want to go faster...
06 June 2022
🔔 Energy Wars: Hopes Vs Reality
The energy picture is looking seriously messy. (Even more) difficult and unpopular decisions lie ahead...
03 June 2022
🔔 Misunderstanding QT
Day 1: "QT starts, stocks go down LOL" Day 2: "OK genius. Why was Nasdaq up 2.7% today? Did QT end after one day?" "Dunno, got rekt, LOL"
02 June 2022
🔔 Let Me Tell You A Story
We all love a good story. And markets are FULL of storytellers. How well do you understand stories and the rules of the game?
01 June 2022
🔔 What's Going On With Oil?
Production targets aren't being hit. IEA's Birol says it'll be worse than the '70s. Oil to $300 if history rhymes...?
31 May 2022
🔔 The Secret Life Of Risk
Over to The Veteran today, with his thoughts on the relationships between risk, reward, and what we think we know that just ain't so...
27 May 2022
🔔 Bull Markets & Easy Money
If easy money leads to bull markets... And economic fears and social unrest lead to easy money... Are you thinking what we're thinking?
26 May 2022
🔔 Where Did The Money Go?
Where did all those trillions go? The whole 'money-printing' thing still really confuses people, so we explained it
25 May 2022
🔔 Growing, But Slowing
New home sales freaked everyone out, but this is EXACTLY what the Fed wants. September pivot?
24 May 2022
🔔 Game Over For China
The "China" the West had hoped for isn't joining the party. Game over.
23 May 2022
🔔 The Market Is Everything & Everywhere
The cynic knows the price of everything and the value of nothing. If you don't understand the value of markets, you're not paying attention.
20 May 2022
🔔 Deliberate Gambling
Everyone's a gambler. But there's a big difference between those that do it deliberately and those that don't.
19 May 2022
🔔 The Day... The Consumer Died
Walmart & Target are down bad, profits slashed, CEO's turning negative... The Veteran's worried about the US consumer
18 May 2022
🔔 Helicopter Money: You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet
Money printing doesn't explain the inflation we've seen. It's not even close to being that simple. It's not THAT complicated either... And there might be more to come 👇
17 May 2022
🔔 Misery: It's For The Best
Misery Index Points To Rising Pain Across The Western World Central Banks: "it's for your own good, we love you, the economy is still growing"
16 May 2022
🔔 In Defence Of Profits
PROFIT isn't a dirty word. It's an essential cog in the global economy. Stick your windfall tax up your a*se
13 May 2022
🔔 In Hindsight, It Was All So Obvious
The hindsight blame games have started, "everybody" saw this coming... But what does the future hold? Stagflation: A decade of investing disaster?
12 May 2022
🔔 Move Fast & Break Things
Move fast and break things is the Fed's new mantra. How far will the collateral damage extend once the dust settles? Tech giants? China? The euro?
11 May 2022
🔔 "Not Your Keys, Not Your Coins"
Coinbase has "no risk of bankruptcy" so please don't worry. In any case, trader/investor protection has limits.
10 May 2022
🔔 Nothing Changes Sentiment Like Price
One of those timeless clichés that we see play out time and again. Price goes first, then sentiment, then opportunities...
09 May 2022
🔔 Spend, Spend, STOP!!
Spending is strong, but the consumer's feeling the pinch now. And here come the layoffs...
06 May 2022
🔔 There's No Such Thing As A Free Lunch
The NHS is a huge part of the UK economy, but it's a long way from 'free'
05 May 2022
🔔 The Masters Of Messaging
How to announce "the fastest hiking cycle in decades" yet still be perceived as dovish...
04 May 2022
🔔 A Dovish Hike To Buy The Dip
FOMC meeting later, and the Fed has telegraphed everything they're going to do: Hike by 50bps (0.5%) & announce QT. So why is anyone worried...?
03 May 2022
🔔 It's All Amazon's Fault
If Only Amazon's Earnings Hadn't Been So Terrible... | Average Abuse Must End | RBA Finally Hikes Rates
29 April 2022
🔔 None Of This Makes Sense
US GDP Goes Negative Due To 'Strong Economy' | Apple's Revenues Nearly $100bn in Q1 But Guidance 'Negative' | China In 'Deep Crisis'
28 April 2022
🔔 "Recessions Don't Happen When Everyone Is Expecting Them"
"If everyone's expecting it, it won't happen" | The Next Big Thing in chip technology | Dollar dominates, but for how much longer?
27 April 2022
🔔 (Re)defining Crypto
Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it's a giant ponzi, all our hopes and dreams of innovation and progress, and the future of money and energy and....
26 April 2022
🔔 We Don't Talk About Elon
A man bought a thing. He's now our saviour or wants to watch the world burn apparently Private > Public EURUSD: History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes
22 April 2022
🔔 Disney's Double Trouble
Disney's up against it: Big Ron's coming for them, the streaming growth engine's in doubt, and they've been given the kiss of death...
21 April 2022
🔔 Peaks: Rate Hikes, Inflation & Ackman
Peaks are the theme du jour (French! And people say we're not cultured smh) | Even though Ackman's Netflix bet went wrong, he did the right thing...
20 April 2022
🔔 Weaker Yuan Ahead, 263 Rate Hikes & Apple Vs Netflix
China's Weakening Yuan | 263 Rate Hikes | Apple vs Netflix
19 April 2022
🔔 Here Comes The Yen Intervention
Something's Got To Give In USDJPY Trust The Bald Guy Twitter Takeover Technicalities Netflix Too Bearish Into Earnings?
14 April 2022
🔔 About That New Global Monetary System...
Narrative: "There's going to be a new monetary system, backed by commodities" Facts: "There isn't, we already tried it, and it sucked" A few things could change though...
13 April 2022
🔔 Big Money Isn't Smart Money
Smart money isn't what you think it is. And "dumb money" isn't just retail with tiny accounts...
12 April 2022
🔔 Cheap For A Reason
Bond yields starting to look attractive (or are they?) & The Veteran's consumer discretionary stocks to watch this earnings season
11 April 2022
🔔 Housing: Re-Writing History
What makes a housing bubble? Are we in one? And why you're wrong if you think we are...
08 April 2022
🔔 Predictive PMI’s & Stops To Breakeven
Why I like PMI's & why you shouldn't move stops to breakeven
07 April 2022
🔔 The End Of Globalisation
"Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated" Globalisation has peaked, but it ain't over
05 April 2022
🔔 RBA Going Slow, BoC About To Go Fast & ETF Optionality
The RBA lost patience, but no hikes yet. The BoC are about to go big And the 'optionality' of ETF's
04 April 2022
🔔 It Started With A Kiss...
The Veteran's important questions... If central banks can't fix a stagflationary economy, will governments step up? And if they try, will it work?
01 April 2022
🔔 Galaxy Braining Into The Weekend...
Are you a galaxy brain? Can you do galaxy-brain things? Here's some stuff to make you think over the weekend...
31 March 2022
🔔 Team Transitory: Doing A Newcastle
What if those transitory inflation calls were right, but early?
30 March 2022
🔔 Turkey's Role In Solving Europe's Energy Crisis
The global energy map is being redrawn. Turkey has a role to play...
29 March 2022
🔔 The '22 Deflationary Bust
History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes Which really screws with people who think it'll repeat...
28 March 2022
🔔 Curves Inverting: The Bond Market Is SCREAMING...
OMFG! The curve thing inverted!! "I don't trade bonds bro. Why should I care?"
25 March 2022
🔔 The Veteran's All Weather Trading
The Veteran shares the results of his successful experiment to find stocks that are set to outperform
24 March 2022
🔔 The Actual Impact Of QE & Interest Rate Changes Part 2
QE & low rates are supposed to make people and businesses borrow more. That's only half the story...
23 March 2022
🔔 The Actual Impact Of QE & Interest Rate Changes
Everyone knows the half truths... "They print money to pump up the stock market" "Low rates cause stock market bubbles" There's more to it than that
21 March 2022
🔔 Pay No Attention To That Man Behind The Curtain
Nothing's fixed. CCP leaders are playing catch up, fighting fires, but this isn't the great transformation.
18 March 2022
🔔 Has the Bank of England bottled it?
The Bank of England hiked rates, then said some stuff and GBP sold off. What are they playing at?
17 March 2022
🔔 Keep This Party Going
The party ain't over just because QE ended. It's definitely changing though...
16 March 2022
🔔 Why The Fed Won't Go Big Tonight
They should, but they probably won't. Why? Because slow and steady is the 'least bad' option.
15 March 2022
🔔 Building Golden Bridges
War fatigue has set in for markets. Time to build those golden bridges before things get worse...
14 March 2022
🔔 Munger's Bad Alibaba Bet
Munger's Martingale strategy ain't looking pretty... Neither's the Hang Seng... Or China's second largest developer...
11 March 2022
🔔 Putin makes everything OK... then it's not...
Right, before we get into today's piece, shout out to Macrodesiac partner Syscoin.
10 March 2022
🔔 Try A Little... Patience
"[INSERT MARKET]... is a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient.”
08 March 2022
🔔 Nuclear Power: A Question Of Time Part 2
The Veteran explains the evolution of nuclear power, and how Germany came to rely on Russian gas...
07 March 2022
🔔 Nuclear Power: A Question Of Time
The evolution of nuclear power, and how Germany came to rely on Russian gas...
04 March 2022
🔔 JPMorgan's "Secret" Plans
Secret plans to move into private equity and compete with the Fintechs. Have they got their timing wrong?
03 March 2022
🔔 How Does X Make Money?
Are you SURE you know how your favourite companies make money?
02 March 2022
🔔 There's Another European Crisis Brewing
Could the ECB intervene... When energy prices are soaring, what good is a weaker currency to you?
01 March 2022
🔔 The Fog Of War
It's easy to get sucked into the good vs evil, crazed dictator gone mad narratives. Information overload + emotion = the fog of war
28 February 2022
🔔 Bruh, Central Banks Won't Hike
The Fed won't hike and the return to easy-money policy means BTFD. Don't bank on it
25 February 2022
🔔 The "Why Don't They Just" Filter...
The "why don't they just" filter is a simple, yet effective way to detect BS. e.g. "Why don't they just stop importing Russian Oil?"
18 February 2022
🔔 China's Consumption Crunch
Whether it's the property crackdown or pandemic policies, China's low consumption is concerning
17 February 2022
🔔 Zoltan Says The Quiet Part Out Loud
The Fed could fight inflation by killing the housing & stock markets...
16 February 2022
🔔 There Are No Answers: Stop Looking
What's going to happen next? What does this mean for stocks? Spoiler Alert! Nobody 'knows'
15 February 2022
🔔 Forget Russia & Ukraine, There's Tension Everywhere
From Trudeau's overreach to China's trade deal, trust is in short supply. It's also the currency of a prosperous society and free trade...
14 February 2022
🔔 Big Tech Need To Cough Up
EU Telecoms giants want big tech firms to pay their way... Will they get their wish?
11 February 2022
🔔 China Policy Advisor Backs MMT & UBI...
Free money for everyone under forty and the end of the USD as reserve currency. Radical policy coming to China?
10 February 2022
🔔 Who Can Stop Disney From Taking Over The World?
Disney will take over the world. Who's going to stop them? Netflix? Pffffttt!
09 February 2022
🔔 The Rocky Balboa Of Businesses
The Veteran's found the Rocky Balboa of businesses, but how much is it worth...? (Includes Bonus Rocky Music)
08 February 2022
🔔 Tomorrow's Token Economy
Let's just tokenize EVERYTHING. Start with the stock market and see where it leads...
07 February 2022
🔔 "Trust The Data"
The AMAZING jobs report that was actually pretty meh. The data's not your friend. It can't be trusted...
03 February 2022
🔔 Bank Of England Hikes But "Don't Get Carried Away"
"We did it because we had to not because we wanted to"
02 February 2022
🔔 The Psychology of a Stock Split
Google's Stock Split - A Psychological Trick... Cloud & Servers key growth areas for tech stocks
01 February 2022
🔔 The Confidence Compass
Beware 'data-driven' central banks and anyone forecasting the future with a high degree of confidence...
31 January 2022
🔔 The Veteran's Moats and Multiples
"Do they have a moat or is their value based on prevailing market sentiment and little else?"
28 January 2022
🔔 Zombies, Recessions & De-Regulation
The Zombies Rise Again Germany 'on brink of recession' Brexit De-regulation
27 January 2022
🔔 Party's Over: One Zillion Rate Hikes
"The Fed called time, we're hiking seven times, 50bps at the next meeting, get out while you can"
26 January 2022
🔔 Do I buy the stocks or not?
Powell's back in the spotlight later Will he shock markets or whisper sweet nothings in their ear...?
25 January 2022
🔔 Quantitative 101: Easing, Tapering & Tightening (QE/QT)
Differences between Quantitative Easing, Quantitative Tapering & Quantitative Tightening often confuse people. #MacrodesiacFixesThis
24 January 2022
🔔 De-Centralised Dream Or Dystopia
"Some amazing technological progress will undoubtedly be born from this phase of the digital evolution, I just don't think a fully de-centralised world will ever exist."
21 January 2022
🔔 The Immigrants Will Save Us
Governments are panicking about labour shortages and ageing populations. Immigration is about to become a hot topic...
20 January 2022
🔔 China: The Lehman Moment That Never Was
Where's the economic collapse the people were promised?
19 January 2022
🔔 The Consumption Life Cycle
An economic model that's especially useful right now...
18 January 2022
🔔 Why DeFi Is Like Betfair
Betfair set out to "democratise bookmaking". DeFi wants to do the same for traditional markets. Will they share the same fate?
14 January 2022
🔔 Is The Fed Panicking Or Planning?
The Fed are back in the spotlight. It's not just the 7% CPI driving their decisions... 👇
13 January 2022
🔔 Will Electric Dreams Turn To Nightmares?
The hype around Electric Vehicles as The Future™ could soon hit the wall of reality... 👇
12 January 2022
🔔 Why Gold Is A Doomer Asset
It's not an inflation hedge It's not 'sound money' So why own it?
10 January 2022
🔔 Is The US Consumer Tapped Out Already?
US consumer debt expanded by a record amount in November with no sign of excess savings being splurged... Soon time for growth fears to take over from inflation fears?
07 January 2022
🔔 What is 'the market' telling us?
"The market is telling us... [insert narrative]" Except when it isn't...
04 January 2022
🔔 Do Narratives & Feelings Beat Facts & Data?
“You don’t give a sh*t about facts, it’s all about fiction. The only world that matters is the one in here and you people believe the craziest sh*t.”
03 January 2022
🔔 Regime Change & The Great New Dawn
Lots of chatter about regime changes and new dawns. Do those claims stand up to scrutiny?
22 December 2021
🔔 Making The Most of Twitter Part 2
Our list of top Twitter accounts to follow, using advanced search, lists and making the most of the ULTIMATE Osmosis learning platform
21 December 2021
🔔 China's Louis Vuitton Love Affair Is On Borrowed Time
Commoditized luxury isn't something a 'socially aware' China should buy into.. “From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs”
20 December 2021
🔔 Will China Roar in 2022?
2022 is China's Year of the Tiger. But we don't see them roaring...
17 December 2021
🔔 This Changes EVERYTHING
What if your phone could last a whole week without charging? No battery upgrade. Just the latest innovation 👇
16 December 2021
🔔 Making the Most of Twitter
Twitter is an amazing resource. It's also an attention drain. So how can you get the most out of it?
15 December 2021
🔔 Catching Zombies Before They Zombify...
The Veteran's gone zombie hunting. Singling out firms in the S&P 500 that aren't quite zombies yet, but might be in the near future...
14 December 2021
🔔 China's On The Bezzle & They're Not Alone
Bezzle is my new favourite word. It might be yours too after reading this... "There is a collective increase in psychic wealth as the value of the bezzle rises"
13 December 2021
🔔 The Path Of Least Regret
The path of least regret: How our illustrious leaders and their key policymakers *actually* make decisions (most of the time)
10 December 2021
🔔 FX: Beta Kings... Emerging Market Currencies Part 2
A deeper look at emerging markets. Argentina's fall, South Korea's rise & is Poland gonna make it?
09 December 2021
🔔 FX: Beta Kings... Emerging Market Currencies Part 1
Rounding off the FX series with the best of the bunch. If you enjoy volatility, pain, and always go back to your crazy ex for more, then these are the currencies for you!
07 December 2021
🔔 The Role of Divergence
For a while everything was in Up Only 🚀 mode. Now things are starting to shift under the surface of the indices... Divergence is a theme that underlies the current market whether we realise it or not.
06 December 2021
🔔 FX: What Makes A Currency Cyclical?
Everything you wanted to know about cyclical currencies! The death of interest rate differentials and what really drives cyclical FX trades
03 December 2021
🔔 FX: The Euro's Just... Special
Is the Euro a funding currency or a pro-cyclical currency? And why it isn't truly considered a safe haven...
02 December 2021
🔔 FX: Know Your Safe Havens
Which currencies do investors run to when they're scared? And more importantly, WHY?
01 December 2021
🔔 FX Havens To High Betas: How well do you know your currencies?
Sure you can name the currencies, but how well do you know them really?
30 November 2021
🔔 Why Does AUDJPY Rise & Fall With Stock Indices?
These two markets ARE correlated, and it's not because of fair value models or the Big Mac Index 👇
29 November 2021
🔔 When Generalisation Beats Specialisation
Generalisation is unavoidable and necessary. It's an excessively tainted word.
26 November 2021
🔔 100 Days To Change The Vax
Covid panic is back A new "variant of concern" might see a bleaker winter than hoped. The world is better prepared this time...
24 November 2021
🔔 A Big Property Mistake
The future of the US housing market, demographic cliffs, and errr... Agenda 21 conspiracy theories
23 November 2021
🔔 The Dogs of The S&P 500
The Macrodesiac Veteran has been diving into the S&P 500 again, rummaging through the goods, the bads, and the absolute dogs...
22 November 2021
🔔 The Price Of Progress
Modern society disproportionately rewards innovators and asset-holders. Is inequality simply the price of progress?
19 November 2021
🔔 Death To The Euro
Lockdowns and restrictions being announced in Europe, plus a perma-dovish ECB Will the euro ever rally again?
18 November 2021
🔔 The Problem With Old People
We often hear how tough it is for youngsters starting out... The older generation are trapped too, just in a different way.
17 November 2021
🔔 The Infinite Bull Market
Can indices really just keep rising? Yes. (in the long run)
16 November 2021
🔔 The Wisdom Of Crowds & The Art of Being Wrong
Are You A Being Of Superior Intellect, like me? Or are you frequently wrong, like the rest of us...?
15 November 2021
🔔 Barriers To Earnings Growth
The Veteran's take on the positive earnings growth seen in 2021 so far, and the potential barriers for that growth to continue...
12 November 2021
🔔 Should You Listen To The Experts?
"Listen to the experts!" If only it were so simple...
10 November 2021
🔔 Abandon The Average
Easy to understand & easy to explain. People LOVE to use averages. But should they?
09 November 2021
🔔 Can the metaverse solve real world problems?
If things are improving without people having to make any real sacrifice, that change lasts and we call it social progress... Where does the metaverse fit in?
08 November 2021
🔔 Why China's Trade Surplus Matters...
China runs a huge trade surplus with the US. Worlds consumer vs worlds factory Why is this such a problem?
05 November 2021
🔔 "Central Banks Are Trapped, They've LOST CONTROL"
Depending who you listen to, central banks are TRAPPED, have LOST CONTROL, or are RECKLESSLY OUT OF CONTROL... What if I told you they weren't ever IN control...?
04 November 2021
🔔 Doubling Down On 'Transitory'
Yeah, the Fed did it again and doubled down on 'transitory' with their dovish taper, but let's go all narcissist & focus on what WE said earlier in the year...
03 November 2021
🔔 Why you should become a non-binary investor
Don't worry, we haven't gone woke... What's the 'right' way to think about markets?
02 November 2021
🔔 What Will The Fed Do?
Taper is nailed on for tomorrow's meeting. Will the Fed respond to inflation? Will they panic and hike rates? What if rate hikes are actually inflationary?
01 November 2021
🔔 Death Of Deflation, Here Comes The Taxation...
Are we entering the exponential age or about to be clobbered with exponential taxation? And the myth of free markets in an era of bailout capitalism
29 October 2021
🔔 Is This Priced In?
Is THIS priced in, is THAT priced in? The eternal market mystery... Just because you can't see something, that doesn't mean it doesn't exist
28 October 2021
🔔 The Great Resignation Isn't What It Seems
Striketober! The Great Resignation! POWER TO THE WORKERS! ✊✊✊ Now it's time to get back to reality...
27 October 2021
🔔 Trust The Science
Wait, it's not about the science? Never has been... Reality is flexible "THIS IS OVERBOUGHT, I'M SELLING"
26 October 2021
🔔 Who's driving the S&P 500?
Over to The Veteran today for his take on the S&P 500 drivers S&P 500 Energy stocks have been amongst the best performers. The energy sector index has risen by +20% over the last 30 days.
25 October 2021
🔔 Hyperinflation Hyperbole
Predictions of hyperinflation are nothing new Let's not worry too much about what Jack may (or may not) actually think. Let's start by defining hyperinflation properly
22 October 2021
🔔 Got A Problem? Blame The Fed
Everything's the Fed's fault. I see it every day on the internetz. But is it true?
21 October 2021
🔔 Drowning in Bullsh*t
Bullsh*t stacked on top of bullsh*t, amplified by more bullsh*t, with bullsh*t sprinkles on top. Not a healthy diet...
20 October 2021
🔔 Polexit, Frexit: EU'll Do Nothing
Poland have the upper hand, there'll be no Polexit... The Industrial Re-Revolution Subtract and simplify is a great strategy for pretty much anything
19 October 2021
🔔 Roll Out The Green Carpet
"I'm given to understand that there's $24 trillion represented in this room and so I want to say to each and every one of those dollars: you're very welcome in the UK"
18 October 2021
🔔 The NeverEnding Stimulus Story
France could issue 'Petrol Cheques' & Sunak could cut VAT on energy... Bank Of England is about to implode (Tenreyro for Governor) The Plastic Recycling Problem
15 October 2021
🔔 So you're a LINEAR thinker? NGMI
Linear thinking is easy, Non-linear thinking is hard mRNA Cancer 'vaccines' How long until Evergrande debts are uncovered?
14 October 2021
🔔 Supply Chain Fixed & Christmas Saved: Thank You Mr President!
🚨 Sarcasm detected! POTUS is trying to fix the supply chains Gas companies are failing Taleb's smugly pointing at 'antifragile'
13 October 2021
🔔 BlackRock, Correlations & the Monthly Deutsche Bank Lawsuit
BlackRock taking over the world, looking for that $10 trillion Correlations are for Christmas, not for life And Deutsche Bank (allegedly) doing their thing again...
12 October 2021
🔔 Dividends or Growth... Why not have Both?
Be greedy and have it all! The Veteran with his latest on the Dividends vs Growth debate
11 October 2021
🔔 Will the Pre-Covid economy ever return?
Is 'Pre-Covid' even a useful benchmark for economic recovery? Local Chinese governments supporting low-tier Chinese property markets Banks report earnings this week: Is the party over?
08 October 2021
🔔 Currency Wars: When Stronger Is Better
Stronger currencies for cheaper imports Fed taper nailed on after jobs report Business is business, and sovereign wealth funds are wealthy
07 October 2021
🔔 "Every single stock she has bought in the last two years has gone up significantly"
The greatest trader that ever lived is a woman Should central banks be hiking rates NOW to fight inflation? Move over Klarna, the big boys are back in town...
06 October 2021
🔔 Growth Stocks Losing Out To The High Dividend Index
Growth stocks tend to struggle when bond yields are rising. How about some chunky dividend returns instead?
05 October 2021
🔔 The Nuclear Penny Has Finally Dropped
Suddenly, nuclear is a big part of the future energy picture. Odds on JayPow getting the chop are narrowing...
04 October 2021
🔔 Shipping Crisis Can't Get Any Worse, Can It?
Returning to 'normal' is not an option. Companies are feeling the pain of extortionate costs while investment in port automation and tech is increasing dramatically.
01 October 2021
🔔 Spiralling Back to the '70s
This back to the '70s theme is doing the rounds again. There are some similarities, but we're not going back... Work From Home is here to stay, and low paid city jobs will suffer. The "profoundly positive" Merck Covid pill
30 September 2021
🔔 Tesla's Top Fans Hit The Exit
Chamath & Cathie are selling, but for different reasons... The Big Green Government Nudge The Q3 story: "Demand is high, we're making more sales, but profits are down..."
29 September 2021
🔔 So you want to be a landlord?
Why it might not be the best time to become a landlord... Want to miss the wood for the trees? Start by blaming everything on Brexit.
28 September 2021
🔔 The ESG Harvest
"The ESG index has outperformed its Non-ESG rival by almost 10%" "Is that the kind of performance you can afford to ignore?"
27 September 2021
🔔 What would it take for this to be true?
One question to filter predictions about the future: What would it take for this to be true? Rolls Royce didn't go bust... it's going nuclear
24 September 2021
🔔 Are you concerned about the current fluctuations in the world's economy?
Every time I try to watch a YouTube video, I get asked that question 👆 Here's why you shouldn't be even a tiny bit concerned...
23 September 2021
🔔 US debt ceiling: Could the government default?
Technically yes. But they won't. So why do we go through with this charade every few years?
22 September 2021
🔔 Gensler's gonna get ya...
Regulators are getting louder: "If they want high yields, make them buy Argentinian bonds instead!" Wait, that was someone else...
21 September 2021
🔔 Does nobody Xi the real risk?
About China, not Evergrande... 👇 Falling property values don't square with Xi's grand plan to boost middle-class consumers...
20 September 2021
🔔 Hey, did you hear about that Chinese property developer?
"YES! Everyone has! Stop going on about it! It's CONTAINED" "OMG, he said contagion, sell everything!"
17 September 2021
🔔 Don't worry about that Economist cover...
DeFi-ing the odds (and the magazine cover curse), regulators are way behind UBS said a thing, everyone PANIC Under the surface of the 'Great Generational Wealth Transfer'
16 September 2021
🔔 The Veteran's Autumn View
September has a poor reputation for stock market returns and last year we saw a -10% correction in US equities over a two and half week period... Repeat or clear skies ahead?
15 September 2021
🔔 Europe's energy crisis: what's going on?
Energy prices are through the roof, politicians are squirming and it's not even winter yet.. COT Report: Does it matter? Revisiting 'Luxury Beliefs' after the AOC show
14 September 2021
🔔 Good News & Bad News...
Good News: mRNA Cancer Therapy Breakthrough! Bad News: RIP China's Property Market Evergrande isn't too big to fail Litecoin hoax never passed the sniff test
13 September 2021
🔔 The Metaverse is already here…
Heard about the metaverse? It's the Next Big Thing™ and I won't have anyone say otherwise. Apple, 'the evil gatekeepers' will launch the new iPhone tomorrow And Druck's early mistake...
10 September 2021
🔔 What's the point of Buy Now, Pay Later?
Getting people to 'spend money they don't have' or an entirely new parallel network? The true cost of the pandemic waiting to be tallied... Defaulting on the most expensive home in America
09 September 2021
🔔 Factors that matter in Q4
The Veteran's views for September & Q4. "the omens for continued gains in equity markets are positive"
08 September 2021
🔔 China, CHINA, CHINA! 📉
Will China go the way of Japan? It won't be too long before we find out... Ah, and the Fed DO buy stocks!
07 September 2021
🔔 The NGMI Edition: Electric Vehicles, Supply Chains & Politicians
Electric Vehicles are 'only for the rich' Supply chains disrupting production well into next year... When's the political revolution?
31 August 2021
🔔 A BORING! yet sustainable investing strategy
The Veteran runs the numbers for boring, sustainable, yet profitable investing. An 82.45% chance of a positive return over two years doesn't sound too boring!
27 August 2021
🔔 Chaos breeds innovation
Chaos isn't always a bad thing, especially when it breeds innovation... Supply chain's screwed for another year And a Quant perspective on today's Jackson Hole outcome
26 August 2021
🔔 "Protection from what? Zee Germans?"
Well, yeah actually Turkish, you smarta*se. Making Hays while the sun shines... R.I.P Ryanair?
25 August 2021
🔔 Ask stupid questions, get thoughtful replies...
Wait, that's not how it's supposed to work! We've had enough of your regulations, morals, and low yields, we're going to crypto! What's going on with this $3.5 trillion? Xi's Plan. Common prosperity or power grab?
24 August 2021
🔔 When outperformance isn't all it seems...
Genuine long term outperformance of a market or other benchmark is a scarce commodity, and there are far too many claims of above average performance among fund and managers for them to be plausible.
23 August 2021
🔔 The Lazy Unemployed Narrative
No benefits, but still not back to work... Chinese Country Garden to follow Evergrande And the UK stamp duty holiday isn't to blame for high house prices...
20 August 2021
🔔 In defence of Amazon
I know it's a tough sell but Amazon doesn't exist in a vacuum... Plus, payment providers overstepping the mark
19 August 2021
🔔 Want some Louis Vuitton at a discount?
Louis Vuitton & China's 'Peak inequality' Amazon death star continues global takeover Facebook's metaverse is coming to a hybrid workplace near you
18 August 2021
🔔 Economic power shifts, marshmallows & manipulated data
Global economic power continues to shift from West to East Stick cooperation into your economic models! Can China's official data be trusted?
17 August 2021
🔔 BlackRock Says 'Invest in China'
BlackRock say that the world's second largest economy is no longer an emerging market. Older people are deflationary And a Love Island/Basement Jaxx economic mashup!
16 August 2021
🔔 Taliban to tie up with China?
Taliban to tie up with China? China's economy is looking fragile... Plus a framework for trading the dollar...
16 August 2021
Morning Call: Afghanistan has fallen, China weighs on the Aussie and UK house prices facing a peak
the situation in Afghanistan, and the Aussie dollar getting hit by a double whammy of China slowdown (and data misses) alongside Australian lockdowns
13 August 2021
🔔 Disney's business is a beautiful beast
📺 The unstoppable Disney machine 🗺️ Indoor mapping for hybrid work 😤 The forgotten 'feeling' that drives crypto development
12 August 2021
🔔 Football's getting 'Messi' & Bilderberg for economists...
Football's business insanity is fantastic, but those finances are a long way from fixed... Heard of the Bilderberg meetings? Turns out there's an economist version Bleak outlook for Thailands' tourism industry
11 August 2021
🔔 Biden begs OPEC, a Dovish taper, and hidden infrastructure winners
Biden says OPEC should increase production (no chance) Fed's incoming dovish taper Hidden infrastructure winners
10 August 2021
🔔 Stagflation Or Bust?
Stagflation has seen a lot of coverage lately... Is it truly unavoidable?
09 August 2021
🔔 Higher wages & index misunderstandings... Will the Fed spoil the party?
Wages are going up (for now): can the trend continue? Index hate (especially the DXY) Kaplan's deeper insights on a Fed taper decision
06 August 2021
🔔 Hey China, we really miss you, let's meet up. xoxo
Loveletters to China from US trade groups S&P to 4700 this year, then 10,000 Tesla isn't in the big boys EV club Comparing WW2 blackouts to vaccinations
05 August 2021
🔔 A trillion dollars that nobody wants...
Bank of England Snoozefest, low rates forever $1 trillion that nobody wants… What if (cash cow) business travel never recovers?
04 August 2021
🔔 Beg for energy you peasants
The EU haven't put it in those *exact* words, but energy costs ARE soaring (and it's all their fault)... Innovation vs Regulation: Bitcoin edition SHOCK! Skills shortages lead to wage increases And making water out of thin air...
03 August 2021
🔔 Brexit was actually a good idea
There's no official post-Brexit vision for Britain, but there doesn't need to be... The EU's 'unity through diversity' problem And why you shouldn't become a trader...
02 August 2021
🔔 Read Now, Pay Later
Square's purchase of Afterpay will probably work, but will always be seen as expensive. SNB printing and minting BILLIONS (while providing value to shareholders)
30 July 2021
🔔 Regulate EVERYTHING
Regulators are suddenly out in force, insisting businesses know their customers, prosecuting frauds, even Chinese IPO's have been canned for now...
29 July 2021
🔔 The (Old) Economy Strikes Back
'Old' economy stocks are roaring, big earnings & shareholder payouts. The FTSE's had a great day but Greta won't be happy...
28 July 2021
🔔 The beats go on, but will Robinhood IPO mark the top?
Massive earnings beats continue, Robinhood IPO looms large over BTFDers and the Dividend Aristocrats maintain that boring is best...
27 July 2021
🔔 🎵 Feed the world, make it a... Oh wait we can!
What if we actually could feed the ENTIRE world? Tech breakthrough & Brexit dividend Trading WITH the trend! And Uber's life-saving technology
26 July 2021
🔔 Today is Monday so this will be the BEST thing you've ever read
What's Monday got to do with it being the best? Don't give me cheap "correlation doesn't equal causation" gibes. It gets old and the burden of proof is on you.
23 July 2021
🔔 Sooner or later, we're going nuclear ☢
Nuclear fusion is now more of an engineering + business problem than a science problem Emerging Markets vulnerable? What's SNAPening?
22 July 2021
🔔 Wanna play FTSE?
⚖ Unilever 'weighs' on the FTSE 100 🌞 S&P seasonality shock? 🥝 Monetary policy getting interesting down under
21 July 2021
🔔 Airline Stocks: Taking Flight or Delta Downed?
✈️ Airlines were filed under 'pretty screwed, let's see what happens' but Q2 earnings show cautious optimism 🏡📉 Evergrande Latest: Mortgages withdrawn in Hong Kong 💰 Buybacks are BACK!
20 July 2021
🔔 EverInferior: Chinese property giant facing a fall
Evergrande in freefall, Oil's road to recovery & a solution to the profit-snatching problem
19 July 2021
🔔 Yes, it's f***ing political. Everything's political
Nothing is safe from the slippery tentacles of politics. Everything's political
16 July 2021
🔔 The Stagflation Apocalypse
Have you heard? The world is ending. Stagflation is imminent and our money isn't backed by anything other than blind faith.
15 July 2021
🔔 Jobs are coming back... but not all of them
Companies are trying to save money so they're cutting back on labour, and investing in automation. Re-skilling boom ahead?
14 July 2021
🔔 Peak Growth Or Just The Beginning?
73% of investors think the global economy is mid or late cycle. I think they're wrong...
13 July 2021
🔔 Big Banks Are Making Big Profits
The first two banks to report were Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. Both had monster quarters and big profits... Let's dive in...
12 July 2021
🔔 Building Resilience Through Failure
Guess where the inspiration for this one came from... ⚽😭 There are always lessons in failure, especially for traders...
09 July 2021
🔔 The Death of The U.S. Consumer...
The death of the U.S. Consumer has been greatly exaggerated...
08 July 2021
🔔 Why China is cracking down on Big Tech
Why do China seem to hate their Big Tech giants? Didi was the latest to feel the wrath of the regulators almost immediately after its U.S. IPO.
07 July 2021
🔔 What's the point of OPEC? 🛢
OPEC+ struggle to reach agreement. Some say they're nothing but a shady price-fixing cartel... Why does OPEC+ even exist?
06 July 2021
🔔 Pandexit: Lies, Statistics & The 'New Normal'
The pandemic is OVER: Stats don't lie. Now it's time to make sense of the 'new normal' of hybrid work...
05 July 2021
🔔 What do you want to know?
The idiot's guide to inflation was so well received. We want to do more! What confuses you? Tell us what you want to know more about...!
02 July 2021
🔔 An idiot's guide to inflation
Inflation 📈 It seems like such a simple concept... but it can also make you feel like an idiot.