The Eurozone's now in one of those 'technical' recessions. The ECB will keep hiking a bit longer, but what's 'next'... Can Europe change?

Tim Vollans

"Narrow breadth market rallies are unhealthy!" "Nah, it's fine, the rest will catch up" All about that breadth...

The Veteran

Degrowthers have decided that economic growth is somehow 'bad'. They say the only logical choice is to degrow ('shrink' couldn't get approval from marketing)...

Tim Vollans

Massive job losses due to AI? Can this 'new' tech really deliver that level of automation?

The Veteran

It's pretty clear that we've gone from overstimulating to probably overtightening. The Recession Reaper is getting his cloak on and sharpening his scythe. One big question still captivates me... Then what?

Tim Vollans

Prices keep rising, companies are making profits and people are outraged. Greedflation is a popular explanation. It's a lie.

Tim Vollans

Diving into the Russell 2000 to see if there are actually any diamonds in the rough (RUT) is rarely advisable, but it happened anyway...

The Veteran

The incredible tale of Bed, Bath & Beyond, a new focus on profitability (weird), and the death of GAAS (Grift As A Service)

Tim Vollans

On why it's so hard for retail traders to make money.

The Veteran

You'll often hear people talk about thinking probabilistically as a superpower. If you can just learn to do it, you'll level up your brain, unlock Pandora's box, succeed at trading and finally get that Lambo

Tim Vollans

Old Stanley's been hitting the headlines a lot lately. We love Druck. But why does the media always focus on the wrong quotes?

Tim Vollans

"It's so over" vibes are getting stronger - how long can markets keep marching to their own beat? Europe the next big short?

Tim Vollans

We can all enjoy a bit of CEO bashing: 'Jack's an idiot hippy', 'Elon's a snake oil schmuck', 'Aron's a scammer'. Good, clean fun. But are they really?

Tim Vollans

It's really not is it? Just another number. Let the academics focus on 0.1% higher or lower. There are far bigger issues bubbling in the background

Tim Vollans

Every day we're inundated with information from 'the media'. But how much is useful, reliable nuggets to help us make sense of the world? And how much is PR spin... Spoon-fed titbits for media sparrows to regurgitate into the mouths of their starving dependants (us)?

Tim Vollans

ZIRP bro's look away now - we're never going back, you had your chance... Even if there's a recession, stupidly low rates will be transitory

Tim Vollans

Bank failures, inflation progress, debt ceiling angst, and signs of labour market softening have markets begging the Fed to pause today. One more hike first...?

Tim Vollans

The future of finance isn't a 60/40 portfolio. The impatient generation is rising up...

The Veteran

Mirror: Making Money Is Bad Guardian: Natural Gas Isn't Natural BBG: Intellectual Curiosity Enters Bear Market

Tim Vollans

McDonald's share price surged to all time highs yesterday. Why care? Well, McDonald's earnings can tell us quite a bit about the economy...

Tim Vollans

AI, ESG & Greenwashing - separating the marketing from the quiet reality

The Veteran

Recent notes have been somewhat negative, bearish even. We think that's with good reason, but that doesn't mean markets are heading straight to the depths...

Tim Vollans

Success breeds complacency, complacency breeds failure, only the paranoid survive

Tim Vollans

Musk is a 'victim of his own war' (but not really) and after a nine month(!) review the Australian central bank is... staying the same

Tim Vollans

A handful of US housing stocks look priced for perfection...

Tim Vollans

Remember the Great US Banking Crisis of 2023? It's over. So... what's next?

Tim Vollans

Oooh this one's cheap, it trades at a discount. Honey, let's buy this one before anyone else notices...

The Veteran

In theory, ETF's will track an underlying asset perfectly. In reality, there are often tracking errors that can negatively impact performance...

The Veteran

As a rule of thumb, when EVERYONE's talking about something, it's usually not a good trade. Yet on the back of the banking crisis everyone's talking about commercial real estate. So is it overblown? Or is the coverage simply too generalised?

Tim Vollans

OOOOOOH THE DRAMA! Entertaining as they are, macro soap operas are bad for your financial health

Tim Vollans

Can you really get Money For Nothing? The Veteran's spotted a potential opportunity in an unexpected place...

The Veteran

It doesn't matter how much you've got in your wallet if nobody trusts you. Lessons from the 'banking crisis'

The Veteran

Now that we're calming down, back to business. More hikes, less guidance. Data-dependent central banks and more tightness

Tim Vollans

Blame the Fed if you want to be boring and live your life in a dark cave of ignorance

Tim Vollans

How a MILF took down "the go-to financial institution for startups"

Tim Vollans

Ooooh a brand new plan for China - haven't heard this one before! Growth engine? No. Stagnation...

Tim Vollans

Everyone's heard the saying "if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is". Yet in financial markets we talk about 'risk free rates' as if they're actually real. What's the deal?

Tim Vollans

The Veteran's been on stock-picking fire lately. Inspiration is found in the strangest of places...

The Veteran

Selling NVIDIA, buying a fertiliser company. It's a terrible idea but we're doing it anyway...

Tim Vollans

Network effects became a cliché over the past decade. Just grow the business and "let network effects take care of the rest..." We're taking them back

The Veteran

Back in 2007BL (Before Lehman) Oaktree was raising capital to buy distressed assets. Now they're stacking cash for leveraged buyouts...

Tim Vollans

Are we (finally) on the brink of a nuclear revolution?

Tim Vollans

Everyone knows that house prices globally are set to fall this year. Will governments intervene or let the market correct?

Tim Vollans

Sounds INSANE but hear me out...

Tim Vollans

China's long history of disrespecting and ignoring intellectual property rights is back in the headlines. Will it ever change?

Tim Vollans

Here are all of the vague and unscientific reasons why I think inflation is about to disappear from the front pages

Tim Vollans

Munger Says. Buffett Says. Dalio Says. Ackman Says. Druckenmiller Says. Random 250k Follower Guy Says.... Should you care what the Best And Brightest™ have to say?

Tim Vollans

Traders are attracted to high impact events (such as yesterday's CPI) like moths to flames. They know they shouldn't, but it's just so beautiful...

Tim Vollans

Running an experiment into today's US CPI (and beyond)... Anchored VWAP's as a gauge of fair value - do they work?

The Veteran

Inflation's not over, but another big driver's starting to turn. Pricing power is weakening, employment's next...

Tim Vollans

Messaging from central bankers is getting even messier than usual. Are they cracking? Realising that the true costs of bringing inflation down to 2% are simply too high?

Tim Vollans

How do we differentiate between growth and value? Can a company/stock be both? Or are those labels drastically abused and misused..?

The Veteran

Powell didn't push back against the 'easing' of financial conditions and junk bond spreads are tighter than [EDITED] What's going on?

Tim Vollans

Balloongate, Japan's trial balloon and the beautiful chaos of the US economy picking up just as the Fed acknowledges disinflation kicking in.

Tim Vollans

Take the reported jobs numbers with a truckload of salt, but the strong labour market (and economy) refuse to roll over

Tim Vollans

Gwen Stefani sang an entire song about the concept of equal-weight investing and nobody realised. The Veteran explains...

The Veteran

People are freaking out about the Fed again. Will today's decision (and comments) actually change anything?

Tim Vollans

Short sellers get a really bad rap. They generally release reports uncovering fraud or poor business practices (which seems like a valuable service) - why the hate?

Tim Vollans

Could there be anything less suited to financial markets? Uncertainty is constant, suffering is assured. That's the game. And your solution is to become a cynic?

Tim Vollans

Anyone voluntarily making a living in markets has a screw loose. We're all insane and I love it.

Tim Vollans

Layoffs are on the rise as companies tighten their belts and the global economy slows. Central banks want to leave rates on pause and quietly exit stage left. But for how long?

Tim Vollans

Judging by my DM's, there's some confusion about why the dollar has been tracking weaker lately. All we need is the dollar smile

Tim Vollans

It's often said that the entire system is rigged, a ponzi created so that 'they' can profit. Is that the full story?

The Veteran

Sending that yield curve back to positive territory, the ultimate recessionary indicator.

Tim Vollans

From Goldilocks and the Soft Landing to Stagflation and the Great Depression 2.0, so many narratives are competing for market attention. It's hard to get a solid read. We'll need to stay the course.

Tim Vollans

It's accepted wisdom that getting on the property ladder is the best way to set yourself up for life. The best investment you'll ever make. What if that's wrong?

Tim Vollans

Crypto has dropped the ball. TradFi is taking tokenisation and running with it. If it moves, tokenise it...

Tim Vollans

Money in the markets rotates from asset class to asset class, index to index, sector to sector and stock to stock. Rotation. Reversion. Repetition

The Veteran

WEF, Davos. Private jets, bug-eating & hypocrisy. Loathe them or not, these people make policy that impacts markets...

Tim Vollans

Lots of optimism doing the rounds. Goldilocks is unlikely to last. Miracles are possible, but not probable

Tim Vollans

Everyone's got their hot takes on the CPI number and what it will mean for markets. Here's another (better) way to think about it

Tim Vollans

The death of the dollar is - once again - imminent. The petroyuan's taking over. Must be a day ending in y.

Tim Vollans

You want to meet a benchmark or you want to make money?

Tim Vollans

"Finding the next big thing™ is the way for investors to turn a few thousand dollars into millions" "Separating fact from wishful thinking (fiction) is just the start"

The Veteran

NFP's today and beyond are likely to be messy. Classic "even if you had the data in advance you'd still lose money" territory

Tim Vollans

New voters for 2023. Still all about the labour market. Until that weakens, any pivot hopes are just distant dreams.

Tim Vollans

True or false? "when new information comes into the market, it is immediately reflected in stock prices"

Tim Vollans

Demand picture is weak, inflation is falling. Same old story. What if wages keep rising as inflation drops in 2023?

Tim Vollans

China's economic recovery. Will it cause another bout of inflation, or drive global growth in 2023?

Tim Vollans

Is the ECB hawking it up right into a recession?

Tim Vollans

The Fed and other central banks are obsessing over financial conditions. Even after tightening at breakneck speeds, financial conditions have eased. That won't last.

Tim Vollans

Fed meeting tonight. Everyone will see what they want to see regardless of what's said and none of it will make much sense.

Tim Vollans

Inflation is dead. Long live inflation. That's what the bulls want to hear. Will they get their wish? Or is an upside surprise in store to cancel Santa?

Tim Vollans

Reassurance is futile. The future has an annoying habit of showing up, regularly. And it shows up in ways that we don’t expect.

Tim Vollans

Been thinking a lot about gambling lately. How everything's a gamble and everyone's a gambler (whether they realise it or not)...

Tim Vollans

The road to self-sufficiency is full of potholes and holds the potential for some unintended and very unpleasant consequences.

The Veteran

You'll often hear platitudes about learning to love your losses. Not on these pages. Learn to loathe your losses.

Tim Vollans

Execution, process, and not getting sucked in by the giant advertising board we know as 'financial markets'

Tim Vollans

Semiconductor boom. Who you betting on? There's a whole value chain to think about. Just don't think too hard...

Tim Vollans

There are a million company metrics to study. What if none of them matter? Stock prices and valuations aren't determined by earnings...

The Veteran

Big Tech's stock market dominance is finally ending. The end of exceptionalism for Apple, Amazon, Microsoft & Google...

Tim Vollans

JOLTS shouldn't matter, but they do. Powell's taking the stage later today. Can the Fed Chair repeat his Jackson Hole trick and sink the stocks?

Tim Vollans

Greed is good. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

Tim Vollans

Workers want pay rises just as companies face up to shrinking profits. Productivity is too low. Something will have to give...

Tim Vollans

Workers are fighting back. Wages are rising, and if they don't, unions organise strikes or workers simply leave. More inflation ahead?

Tim Vollans

Canadian property prices are falling. Mortgage payments are rising. All against a backdrop of broken promises and widespread mortgage fraud

Tim Vollans

Trade less, trade better, defending the over-valuation in private equity and why the end is nigh for many EV startups

Tim Vollans

Banks and research firms are publishing their 2023 outlooks. A soft landing and a strong US economy, or the S&P500 to 3,000 as company earnings take a big hit?

Tim Vollans

Lows are in for crypto, I read it in a magazine. Don't chase China's bumpy reopening rally and no recession could mean inflation hangs about for longer

Tim Vollans

Markets don't really change. Yet some businesses die while others adapt and thrive. What's the secret?

The Veteran

Jeremy Hunt says if we take more of your money and dump it into that swirling dark fiscal abyss, it'll go through the magic wormhole and reappear in the wallets of other people who need it more than you

Tim Vollans

On conspiracies. And making sense of this complex web of stories that we call financial markets...

Tim Vollans

The Tether risks are getting bigger, not smaller.

Tim Vollans

China's economy will probably pick up for a few months before the bigger problems smack it down again...

Tim Vollans

The packaging changes, but nested investments ALWAYS end the same way - there's nothing new under the sun

The Veteran

Crypto is dead. Long live crypto. What comes next?

Tim Vollans

FTX is under the cosh. Don't worry, it's all fine. You can trust Sam, he'd never lie to you...

Tim Vollans

261,000 jobs added or 306,000 jobs lost. It all depends who you speak to.

Tim Vollans

Uptober played out at the index level, and a handful of single stocks soared above and beyond. The Veteran's spotted something that links them together...

The Veteran

The basis of life and progress. Those who want to end capitalism simply don't understand how the world works

Tim Vollans

Whatever happens today, this isn't the pivot you're looking for

Tim Vollans

Hedge our FX risk for more profits? Sounds like a lot of work, we'll just sacrifice 12% of our annual profits instead...

Tim Vollans

Windfall taxes are top of mind, but where will the money go and what problems will it solve?

Tim Vollans

The Veteran's predicted Facebook weakness since the pre-Meta days. Now it's all falling apart for the Zuck. Can he turn it around?

The Veteran

K.I.S.S.I.N XI. Germany's getting closer to China just as the US turns away.

Tim Vollans

The Fed's trying to kill inflation. Politicians keep interfering.

Tim Vollans

No let up in the lithium bull market. The battery metal's up roughly 180% year to date. The market will always find a solution...

Tim Vollans

Japan's intervening again. Did you catch THE trade? You know, the 150 trade. The level that EVERYONE was watching...

Tim Vollans

Relying on the information that's immediately available to you when making important decisions about money and finance is rarely a good idea

The Veteran

Britain's had their turn in the spotlight. Within the next week or two there'll be a new leader and a new fiscal plan. Who's next?

Tim Vollans

The central bank told them to get their house in order. Can they act in time?

Tim Vollans

The world economy's looking pretty wobbly. At times like these, big ideas about permanent change become seductive...

Tim Vollans

Never. Honestly. Stop asking. Xi's congress speech was just more of the same

Tim Vollans

it's hard to see how Germany gets through this without some serious long-term scars. A short recession would be an amazing outcome that only the most optimistic could entertain.

Tim Vollans

A healthy, vibrant bond market is the bedrock of any financial system. The biggest global bond market is broken. How do we fix it?

Tim Vollans

The pain's only just beginning. Things will get worse before they get better. Are we having fun yet?

Tim Vollans

The bullwhip effect is inevitable and a key supply and demand concept. Discounts for us means lower profits for those filthy capitalists...

Tim Vollans

The Veteran draws parallels between Thomas Cromwell, the modern day trader, and the executioners scythe hanging over European credit markets

The Veteran

But it's not all doom and gloom, even if the big picture looks dystopian

Tim Vollans

Pain for landlords and the over-leveraged as global housing markets freeze up

Tim Vollans

Doomsday is upon us again. Global recession, the zombie apocalypse, or maybe just a quiet one?

Tim Vollans

European unity for thee, but not for we. Can Germany boss the rest of the EU around while adding €360 billion of debt in a year?

Tim Vollans

When Mario speaks, you listen. VUCA can help you understand the insanity of markets...

Tim Vollans

Housing's done, Orders are slowing, all eyes on Profits & Employment now.

Tim Vollans

Time to buy the dip in stocks? Maybe just a nibble...

Tim Vollans

and others

Markets are breaking because the UK actually wants to make the economy better. HOW DARE THEY

Tim Vollans

Cut corporate taxes, more money for the bankers, cut stamp duty to keep the property market propped up. What's Truss up to?

Tim Vollans

Everyone knows you never go full Volcker. The only Fed preview you need.

Tim Vollans

Markets go up and down, fortunes are made and lost. Everything is cyclical. King Charles says we need a bull market in critical thinking.

Tim Vollans

"No amount of sophistication is going to allay the fact that all of your knowledge is about the past and all your decisions are about the future"

Tim Vollans

Does inflation really hurt the poor most? "Our understanding of inflation is not helped by a world increasingly dominated by sound-bite economics"

Tim Vollans

Great business you have there, does it actually make any money?

Tim Vollans

It's not 2008 all over again. Some housing pain is assured, but there's a lot that's different this time...

Tim Vollans

The UK energy price cap fixes short-term problems, but there's no free lunch, and the bill will come due in future.

The Veteran

Every company wants a deep, wide moat. Something that protects the company from invaders barrelling in and stealing the loot. But not all moats are created equal

Tim Vollans

Central Bank Strategy: Give nothing away, keep betting big and hope for the best.

Tim Vollans

OK. So you want to know the REAL reason stocks are down? We plugged the data into our proprietary Macrodesiac Model™ to bring you the answer.

Tim Vollans

Nuclear power will be the bedrock of electricity markets around the globe.

Tim Vollans

Truss is in. GBP's stopped falling. Hopium rally inbound?

Tim Vollans

Buyback derangement syndrome and mis-allocation of capital in a low-interest rate world.

Tim Vollans

Two jobs for every unemployed person in America? And two jobs for some of the employed ones too? "Well that's what the data says"

Tim Vollans

China's finally announced the big congress meeting date and Xi's likely third term. More of the same or a brand new China?

Tim Vollans

Britain is fundamentally broken. Inflation will soar this winter, everyone will be poor, and to top things off, it'll be cold, dark, wet, and depressing just like every other British winter. But...

Tim Vollans

"The problem with the term 'maximise shareholder value' is that it has been hijacked by those who incorrectly believe that the goal is to maximise short-term earnings to boost today’s stock price"

Tim Vollans

Zoltan says that Russia and China are challenging the US hegemon. Do either of them really want the job? And will it end in war?

Tim Vollans

All eyes are on Powell for Jackson Hole. Will they go 50 or 75? So EXCITING! Except there's a far bigger game unfolding...

Tim Vollans

Narratives are part and parcel of a dynamic market environment, fuelled by the exchange of information between traders. Some have shorter shelf lives than others...

The Veteran

China's recession is imminent and there's no quick fix. This time really is different

Tim Vollans

Keep calm and carry on? With these energy prices I can't even afford to put the kettle on for a cup of tea Clive. I'm not bloody calm!

Tim Vollans

"For industries typically geared toward office work, the share of hours worked remotely was above 50 percent on average."

Tim Vollans

Excess savings gone, credit card debt rising. But it's not all doom and gloom just yet...

Tim Vollans

Fed minutes are always old news with the occasional nugget of gold for the nerds

Tim Vollans

Quantitative tightening ramps up in September. Are markets ready?

Tim Vollans

The bond market is 'screaming', curves are inverting, but all's calm in credit markets.

Tim Vollans

Money. Everyone chases around like headless chickens to get more of it. Nobody stops to think what it really is.

Tim Vollans

Markets price on the margin Marginal changes can (and do) affect where prices head next.

The Veteran

We're not wired for easy things. Success is something that must be earnt.

Tim Vollans

Why are central banks hiking rates when the current inflation is (mainly) supply-driven?

Tim Vollans

"I struggle turning all the research into good trades. Could you offer some advice?"

Tim Vollans

You offer no value to society, you're not producing anything of worth... What's the point of you?

Tim Vollans

Tempting as it is to just block them out and completely ignore politics, these chimps (we'll come to it) pass and block laws that can have enormous impacts on markets.

Tim Vollans

Sacrifice jobs to save the stock market. You mean the economy? Yeah, sure.

Tim Vollans

We've been here before, but the case is getting stronger for an inflation peak. It's a long way back and won't happen overnight...

Tim Vollans

“The chance of a vicious cycle (declining housing sales and prices, mounting developers’ distress, and deteriorating local government finances) developing is concerning from growth and financial stability perspectives”

Tim Vollans

...an open-minded and skeptical view of the world, in which economic theories are seen as tools to aid understanding rather than as bodies of received revelation.

Tim Vollans

Recession hits, Fed pivots, Stocks go up. EASY!

Tim Vollans

Everyone knows there's a Fed meeting tonight, they'll hike (at least) 75bps, but when will they cut? Not as soon as markets hope...

Tim Vollans

Is 'paying attention' an edge, and does value really matter?

Tim Vollans

Demographics are destiny. At least that's how they're described... But demographic changes are like the tortoise of the economic race. Slow, steady & barely moving

Tim Vollans

This index turned negative ahead of the last five US recessions

The Veteran

The US economy is top dog. There shouldn't be any debate about this, yet US demise is always the hottest topic. "Never bet against America"

Tim Vollans

How the existential crisis of climate change is driving a new revolution in agriculture

Tim Vollans

A brand new world: redefining economic growth, the truth about the WEF, and nudgenomics

Tim Vollans

GDP is a terrible metric and growth at all costs isn't sustainable. New economic goals and measurements are coming whether you like it or not...

The Veteran

Billy Bagholder's sad. Don't be like Billy Bagholder.

Tim Vollans

Bro, you have to adjust everything for inflation if you want to understand inflation. Like, it's not good, but it's not all bad

Tim Vollans

He keeps a low profile, but he's stuck to his guns and been on the money for over two decades

Tim Vollans

Disclaimer: This is a goldbug free zone. But gold could make sense if things don't pan out as well as economists hope...

Tim Vollans

The 'easy' trade from the lows is done. Now we're 'on the verge of a bull market' Is a stimulus promise enough to take Chinese stocks higher from here?

Tim Vollans

Is the market out of sync? What does it say about risk appetite when pension funds are freeing up cash to become Venture Capitalists?

Tim Vollans

The Fed minutes are ancient history, France aren't taking their debt seriously, and the UK's rate hikes with no economic growth.

Tim Vollans

The PPT's real. But it's not a crack team of traders waiting for the call from JP to start smashing the buy button...

Tim Vollans

Euro in freefall, Germany panicking. ECB meeting on July 21st is crucial, but it's not looking hopeful...

Tim Vollans

Booms are bad, busts are good and recessions are part of the healing process Does it always have to be so... binary?

Tim Vollans

Howard Marks is an absolute legend. If you want to understand cycles, risk, and why forecasts are BS, he's the God-like investor you need

Tim Vollans

Central bank complacency got us here. Everyone agrees they'll cause a recession to fix inflation. But what happens next?

Tim Vollans

The EU's in a proper mess. This inflationary, monetary & energy crisis is set to be the sternest test yet of EU unity. Rumours that Draghi's appointing loyal technocrats in Italy...

Tim Vollans

The SNB pledged to intervene and keep the Franc strong. That tees up sales of (US) stocks, foreign currencies or bonds.

Tim Vollans

How the G7 decision to compete with China's Belt & Road initiative will divide the world into the dollar 'haves' vs dollar 'have nots'

Tim Vollans

If you want to understand markets, you have to put morals to one side. The world doesn't run on platitudes...

Tim Vollans

Why we could see more yuan weakness ahead, plus risk of a dollar funding squeeze in the smaller Asian economies...

Tim Vollans

Zombies on the verge of collapse doesn't tell the whole story. The Veteran's mining for hidden gems in the small-cap world

The Veteran

“Some parts of private equity look like a pyramid scheme” “You know you can sell to another private equity firm for 20 or 30 times earnings. That’s why you can talk about a Ponzi. It’s a circular thing.”

Tim Vollans

Just as the housing market slows, and interest rates rise. Top timing as always. And Cathie Wood's price targets are outrageous for a reason.

Tim Vollans

Has the recession already started? 15% of CEO's say yes... Keep a close eye on the zeitgeist and longer-term bonds

Tim Vollans

Will they do 50, 75, or a gazillion? Don't guess and gamble, read our preview! And then sit it out, like anyone with any sense...

Tim Vollans

As soon as the Fed meeting's out of the way, the market's focus will shift to profit margins It won't be pretty...

Tim Vollans

The Veteran's in command today with his thoughts on the intricate craft of trading and lessons from the battlefield...

The Veteran

No black swans, just maximum FUD heading into the weekend.

Tim Vollans

"It's simple supply and demand" Except supply and demand isn't always as simple as we'd like it to be...

Tim Vollans

Too Much Stuff | China's Bad Bank | The One Month Fertilizer Shortage | Not Enough Energy

Tim Vollans

Thursday's ECB meeting will set the stage for hikes in July & September. Fragmentation risks will need to be addressed if they want to go faster...

Tim Vollans

The energy picture is looking seriously messy. (Even more) difficult and unpopular decisions lie ahead...

Tim Vollans

Day 1: "QT starts, stocks go down LOL" Day 2: "OK genius. Why was Nasdaq up 2.7% today? Did QT end after one day?" "Dunno, got rekt, LOL"

Tim Vollans

We all love a good story. And markets are FULL of storytellers. How well do you understand stories and the rules of the game?

Tim Vollans

Production targets aren't being hit. IEA's Birol says it'll be worse than the '70s. Oil to $300 if history rhymes...?

Tim Vollans

Over to The Veteran today, with his thoughts on the relationships between risk, reward, and what we think we know that just ain't so...

The Veteran

If easy money leads to bull markets... And economic fears and social unrest lead to easy money... Are you thinking what we're thinking?

Tim Vollans

Where did all those trillions go? The whole 'money-printing' thing still really confuses people, so we explained it

Tim Vollans

New home sales freaked everyone out, but this is EXACTLY what the Fed wants. September pivot?

Tim Vollans

The "China" the West had hoped for isn't joining the party. Game over.

Tim Vollans

The cynic knows the price of everything and the value of nothing. If you don't understand the value of markets, you're not paying attention.

Tim Vollans

Everyone's a gambler. But there's a big difference between those that do it deliberately and those that don't.

Tim Vollans

Walmart & Target are down bad, profits slashed, CEO's turning negative... The Veteran's worried about the US consumer

The Veteran

Money printing doesn't explain the inflation we've seen. It's not even close to being that simple. It's not THAT complicated either... And there might be more to come 👇

Tim Vollans

Misery Index Points To Rising Pain Across The Western World Central Banks: "it's for your own good, we love you, the economy is still growing"

Tim Vollans

PROFIT isn't a dirty word. It's an essential cog in the global economy. Stick your windfall tax up your a*se

Tim Vollans

The hindsight blame games have started, "everybody" saw this coming... But what does the future hold? Stagflation: A decade of investing disaster?

Tim Vollans

Move fast and break things is the Fed's new mantra. How far will the collateral damage extend once the dust settles? Tech giants? China? The euro?

Tim Vollans

Coinbase has "no risk of bankruptcy" so please don't worry. In any case, trader/investor protection has limits.

Tim Vollans

One of those timeless clichés that we see play out time and again. Price goes first, then sentiment, then opportunities...

Tim Vollans

Spending is strong, but the consumer's feeling the pinch now. And here come the layoffs...

Tim Vollans

The NHS is a huge part of the UK economy, but it's a long way from 'free'

The Veteran

How to announce "the fastest hiking cycle in decades" yet still be perceived as dovish...

Tim Vollans

FOMC meeting later, and the Fed has telegraphed everything they're going to do: Hike by 50bps (0.5%) & announce QT. So why is anyone worried...?

Tim Vollans

If Only Amazon's Earnings Hadn't Been So Terrible... | Average Abuse Must End | RBA Finally Hikes Rates

Tim Vollans

US GDP Goes Negative Due To 'Strong Economy' | Apple's Revenues Nearly $100bn in Q1 But Guidance 'Negative' | China In 'Deep Crisis'

Tim Vollans

"If everyone's expecting it, it won't happen" | The Next Big Thing in chip technology | Dollar dominates, but for how much longer?

Tim Vollans

Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it's a giant ponzi, all our hopes and dreams of innovation and progress, and the future of money and energy and....

Tim Vollans

A man bought a thing. He's now our saviour or wants to watch the world burn apparently Private > Public EURUSD: History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes

Tim Vollans

Where housing leads, inflation follows...

Tim Vollans

Disney's up against it: Big Ron's coming for them, the streaming growth engine's in doubt, and they've been given the kiss of death...

Tim Vollans

Peaks are the theme du jour (French! And people say we're not cultured smh) | Even though Ackman's Netflix bet went wrong, he did the right thing...

Tim Vollans

China's Weakening Yuan | 263 Rate Hikes | Apple vs Netflix

Tim Vollans

Something's Got To Give In USDJPY Trust The Bald Guy Twitter Takeover Technicalities Netflix Too Bearish Into Earnings?

Tim Vollans

Narrative: "There's going to be a new monetary system, backed by commodities" Facts: "There isn't, we already tried it, and it sucked" A few things could change though...

Tim Vollans

Smart money isn't what you think it is. And "dumb money" isn't just retail with tiny accounts...

Tim Vollans

Bond yields starting to look attractive (or are they?) & The Veteran's consumer discretionary stocks to watch this earnings season

The Veteran

What makes a housing bubble? Are we in one? And why you're wrong if you think we are...

Tim Vollans

Why I like PMI's & why you shouldn't move stops to breakeven

Tim Vollans

"Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated" Globalisation has peaked, but it ain't over

Tim Vollans

"Son, your ego's writing cheques your body can't cash"

Tim Vollans

The RBA lost patience, but no hikes yet. The BoC are about to go big And the 'optionality' of ETF's

Tim Vollans

The Veteran's important questions... If central banks can't fix a stagflationary economy, will governments step up? And if they try, will it work?

The Veteran

Are you a galaxy brain? Can you do galaxy-brain things? Here's some stuff to make you think over the weekend...

Tim Vollans

What if those transitory inflation calls were right, but early?

Tim Vollans

The global energy map is being redrawn. Turkey has a role to play...

Tim Vollans

History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes Which really screws with people who think it'll repeat...

Tim Vollans

OMFG! The curve thing inverted!! "I don't trade bonds bro. Why should I care?"

Tim Vollans

The Veteran shares the results of his successful experiment to find stocks that are set to outperform

The Veteran

QE & low rates are supposed to make people and businesses borrow more. That's only half the story...

Tim Vollans

Nothing's fixed. CCP leaders are playing catch up, fighting fires, but this isn't the great transformation.

Tim Vollans

The Bank of England hiked rates, then said some stuff and GBP sold off. What are they playing at?

Tim Vollans

The party ain't over just because QE ended. It's definitely changing though...

Tim Vollans

They should, but they probably won't. Why? Because slow and steady is the 'least bad' option.

Tim Vollans

War fatigue has set in for markets. Time to build those golden bridges before things get worse...

Tim Vollans

Munger's Martingale strategy ain't looking pretty... Neither's the Hang Seng... Or China's second largest developer...

Tim Vollans

Right, before we get into today's piece, shout out to Macrodesiac partner Syscoin.

David Belle

"[INSERT MARKET]... is a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient.”

Tim Vollans

Why being "right" is the wrong thing to aspire to...

Tim Vollans

The Veteran explains the evolution of nuclear power, and how Germany came to rely on Russian gas...

The Veteran

The evolution of nuclear power, and how Germany came to rely on Russian gas...

The Veteran

Secret plans to move into private equity and compete with the Fintechs. Have they got their timing wrong?

Tim Vollans

Are you SURE you know how your favourite companies make money?

Tim Vollans

Could the ECB intervene... When energy prices are soaring, what good is a weaker currency to you?

Tim Vollans

It's easy to get sucked into the good vs evil, crazed dictator gone mad narratives. Information overload + emotion = the fog of war

Tim Vollans

The Fed won't hike and the return to easy-money policy means BTFD. Don't bank on it

Tim Vollans

The "why don't they just" filter is a simple, yet effective way to detect BS. e.g. "Why don't they just stop importing Russian Oil?"

Tim Vollans

Whether it's the property crackdown or pandemic policies, China's low consumption is concerning

Tim Vollans

The Fed could fight inflation by killing the housing & stock markets...

Tim Vollans

What's going to happen next? What does this mean for stocks? Spoiler Alert! Nobody 'knows'

Tim Vollans

From Trudeau's overreach to China's trade deal, trust is in short supply. It's also the currency of a prosperous society and free trade...

Tim Vollans

EU Telecoms giants want big tech firms to pay their way... Will they get their wish?

Tim Vollans

Free money for everyone under forty and the end of the USD as reserve currency. Radical policy coming to China?

Tim Vollans

Disney will take over the world. Who's going to stop them? Netflix? Pffffttt!

Tim Vollans

The Veteran's found the Rocky Balboa of businesses, but how much is it worth...? (Includes Bonus Rocky Music)

The Veteran

Let's just tokenize EVERYTHING. Start with the stock market and see where it leads...

Tim Vollans

The AMAZING jobs report that was actually pretty meh. The data's not your friend. It can't be trusted...

Tim Vollans

"We did it because we had to not because we wanted to"

Tim Vollans

Google's Stock Split - A Psychological Trick... Cloud & Servers key growth areas for tech stocks

Tim Vollans

Beware 'data-driven' central banks and anyone forecasting the fut