24 June 2022
🔔 The Market Doesn’t Care About Your Morals
If you want to understand markets, you have to put morals to one side. The world doesn't run on platitudes...
Opening Belle
23 June 2022
🔔 Another Asian Financial Crisis?
Why we could see more yuan weakness ahead, plus risk of a dollar funding squeeze in the smaller Asian economies...
22 June 2022
🔔 Small Can Be Beautiful
Zombies on the verge of collapse doesn't tell the whole story. The Veteran's mining for hidden gems in the small-cap world
21 June 2022
🔔 Private Equity: Opacity & Leverage = Risk
“Some parts of private equity look like a pyramid scheme” “You know you can sell to another private equity firm for 20 or 30 times earnings. That’s why you can talk about a Ponzi. It’s a circular thing.”
20 June 2022
🔔 Bank Of England Withdraws Mortgage Affordability Test
Just as the housing market slows, and interest rates rise. Top timing as always. And Cathie Wood's price targets are outrageous for a reason.
17 June 2022
🔔 Recession To Beat Inflation
Has the recession already started? 15% of CEO's say yes... Keep a close eye on the zeitgeist and longer-term bonds
15 June 2022
🔔 Fed Up With Inflation
Will they do 50, 75, or a gazillion? Don't guess and gamble, read our preview! And then sit it out, like anyone with any sense...
14 June 2022
🔔 🔥 Burning Earnings & Shrinking Margins
As soon as the Fed meeting's out of the way, the market's focus will shift to profit margins It won't be pretty...
13 June 2022
🔔 Trade the trend!
The Veteran's in command today with his thoughts on the intricate craft of trading and lessons from the battlefield...
10 June 2022
🔔 Risks Hiding In Plain Sight
No black swans, just maximum FUD heading into the weekend.
09 June 2022
🔔 The Many Layers Of Supply & Demand
"It's simple supply and demand" Except supply and demand isn't always as simple as we'd like it to be...
08 June 2022
🔔 Too Much And Not Enough
Too Much Stuff | China's Bad Bank | The One Month Fertilizer Shortage | Not Enough Energy
07 June 2022
🔔 ECB: Definitely Here To Close The Spreads
Thursday's ECB meeting will set the stage for hikes in July & September. Fragmentation risks will need to be addressed if they want to go faster...
06 June 2022
🔔 Energy Wars: Hopes Vs Reality
The energy picture is looking seriously messy. (Even more) difficult and unpopular decisions lie ahead...
03 June 2022
🔔 Misunderstanding QT
Day 1: "QT starts, stocks go down LOL" Day 2: "OK genius. Why was Nasdaq up 2.7% today? Did QT end after one day?" "Dunno, got rekt, LOL"
02 June 2022
🔔 Let Me Tell You A Story
We all love a good story. And markets are FULL of storytellers. How well do you understand stories and the rules of the game?
01 June 2022
🔔 What's Going On With Oil?
Production targets aren't being hit. IEA's Birol says it'll be worse than the '70s. Oil to $300 if history rhymes...?
31 May 2022
🔔 The Secret Life Of Risk
Over to The Veteran today, with his thoughts on the relationships between risk, reward, and what we think we know that just ain't so...
27 May 2022
🔔 Bull Markets & Easy Money
If easy money leads to bull markets... And economic fears and social unrest lead to easy money... Are you thinking what we're thinking?
26 May 2022
🔔 Where Did The Money Go?
Where did all those trillions go? The whole 'money-printing' thing still really confuses people, so we explained it
25 May 2022
🔔 Growing, But Slowing
New home sales freaked everyone out, but this is EXACTLY what the Fed wants. September pivot?
24 May 2022
🔔 Game Over For China
The "China" the West had hoped for isn't joining the party. Game over.
23 May 2022
🔔 The Market Is Everything & Everywhere
The cynic knows the price of everything and the value of nothing. If you don't understand the value of markets, you're not paying attention.
20 May 2022
🔔 Deliberate Gambling
Everyone's a gambler. But there's a big difference between those that do it deliberately and those that don't.
19 May 2022
🔔 The Day... The Consumer Died
Walmart & Target are down bad, profits slashed, CEO's turning negative... The Veteran's worried about the US consumer
18 May 2022
🔔 Helicopter Money: You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet
Money printing doesn't explain the inflation we've seen. It's not even close to being that simple. It's not THAT complicated either... And there might be more to come 👇
17 May 2022
🔔 Misery: It's For The Best
Misery Index Points To Rising Pain Across The Western World Central Banks: "it's for your own good, we love you, the economy is still growing"
16 May 2022
🔔 In Defence Of Profits
PROFIT isn't a dirty word. It's an essential cog in the global economy. Stick your windfall tax up your a*se
13 May 2022
🔔 In Hindsight, It Was All So Obvious
The hindsight blame games have started, "everybody" saw this coming... But what does the future hold? Stagflation: A decade of investing disaster?
12 May 2022
🔔 Move Fast & Break Things
Move fast and break things is the Fed's new mantra. How far will the collateral damage extend once the dust settles? Tech giants? China? The euro?
11 May 2022
🔔 "Not Your Keys, Not Your Coins"
Coinbase has "no risk of bankruptcy" so please don't worry. In any case, trader/investor protection has limits.
10 May 2022
🔔 Nothing Changes Sentiment Like Price
One of those timeless clichés that we see play out time and again. Price goes first, then sentiment, then opportunities...
09 May 2022
🔔 Spend, Spend, STOP!!
Spending is strong, but the consumer's feeling the pinch now. And here come the layoffs...
06 May 2022
🔔 There's No Such Thing As A Free Lunch
The NHS is a huge part of the UK economy, but it's a long way from 'free'
05 May 2022
🔔 The Masters Of Messaging
How to announce "the fastest hiking cycle in decades" yet still be perceived as dovish...
04 May 2022
🔔 A Dovish Hike To Buy The Dip
FOMC meeting later, and the Fed has telegraphed everything they're going to do: Hike by 50bps (0.5%) & announce QT. So why is anyone worried...?
03 May 2022
🔔 It's All Amazon's Fault
If Only Amazon's Earnings Hadn't Been So Terrible... | Average Abuse Must End | RBA Finally Hikes Rates
29 April 2022
🔔 None Of This Makes Sense
US GDP Goes Negative Due To 'Strong Economy' | Apple's Revenues Nearly $100bn in Q1 But Guidance 'Negative' | China In 'Deep Crisis'
28 April 2022
🔔 "Recessions Don't Happen When Everyone Is Expecting Them"
"If everyone's expecting it, it won't happen" | The Next Big Thing in chip technology | Dollar dominates, but for how much longer?
27 April 2022
🔔 (Re)defining Crypto
Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it's a giant ponzi, all our hopes and dreams of innovation and progress, and the future of money and energy and....
26 April 2022
🔔 We Don't Talk About Elon
A man bought a thing. He's now our saviour or wants to watch the world burn apparently Private > Public EURUSD: History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes
22 April 2022
🔔 Disney's Double Trouble
Disney's up against it: Big Ron's coming for them, the streaming growth engine's in doubt, and they've been given the kiss of death...
21 April 2022
🔔 Peaks: Rate Hikes, Inflation & Ackman
Peaks are the theme du jour (French! And people say we're not cultured smh) | Even though Ackman's Netflix bet went wrong, he did the right thing...
20 April 2022
🔔 Weaker Yuan Ahead, 263 Rate Hikes & Apple Vs Netflix
China's Weakening Yuan | 263 Rate Hikes | Apple vs Netflix
19 April 2022
🔔 Here Comes The Yen Intervention
Something's Got To Give In USDJPY Trust The Bald Guy Twitter Takeover Technicalities Netflix Too Bearish Into Earnings?
14 April 2022
🔔 About That New Global Monetary System...
Narrative: "There's going to be a new monetary system, backed by commodities" Facts: "There isn't, we already tried it, and it sucked" A few things could change though...
13 April 2022
🔔 Big Money Isn't Smart Money
Smart money isn't what you think it is. And "dumb money" isn't just retail with tiny accounts...
12 April 2022
🔔 Cheap For A Reason
Bond yields starting to look attractive (or are they?) & The Veteran's consumer discretionary stocks to watch this earnings season
11 April 2022
🔔 Housing: Re-Writing History
What makes a housing bubble? Are we in one? And why you're wrong if you think we are...
08 April 2022
🔔 Predictive PMI’s & Stops To Breakeven
Why I like PMI's & why you shouldn't move stops to breakeven
07 April 2022
🔔 The End Of Globalisation
"Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated" Globalisation has peaked, but it ain't over
05 April 2022
🔔 RBA Going Slow, BoC About To Go Fast & ETF Optionality
The RBA lost patience, but no hikes yet. The BoC are about to go big And the 'optionality' of ETF's
04 April 2022
🔔 It Started With A Kiss...
The Veteran's important questions... If central banks can't fix a stagflationary economy, will governments step up? And if they try, will it work?
01 April 2022
🔔 Galaxy Braining Into The Weekend...
Are you a galaxy brain? Can you do galaxy-brain things? Here's some stuff to make you think over the weekend...
31 March 2022
🔔 Team Transitory: Doing A Newcastle
What if those transitory inflation calls were right, but early?
30 March 2022
🔔 Turkey's Role In Solving Europe's Energy Crisis
The global energy map is being redrawn. Turkey has a role to play...
29 March 2022
🔔 The '22 Deflationary Bust
History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes Which really screws with people who think it'll repeat...
28 March 2022
🔔 Curves Inverting: The Bond Market Is SCREAMING...
OMFG! The curve thing inverted!! "I don't trade bonds bro. Why should I care?"
25 March 2022
🔔 The Veteran's All Weather Trading
The Veteran shares the results of his successful experiment to find stocks that are set to outperform
24 March 2022
🔔 The Actual Impact Of QE & Interest Rate Changes Part 2
QE & low rates are supposed to make people and businesses borrow more. That's only half the story...
23 March 2022
🔔 The Actual Impact Of QE & Interest Rate Changes
Everyone knows the half truths... "They print money to pump up the stock market" "Low rates cause stock market bubbles" There's more to it than that
21 March 2022
🔔 Pay No Attention To That Man Behind The Curtain
Nothing's fixed. CCP leaders are playing catch up, fighting fires, but this isn't the great transformation.
18 March 2022
🔔 Has the Bank of England bottled it?
The Bank of England hiked rates, then said some stuff and GBP sold off. What are they playing at?
17 March 2022
🔔 Keep This Party Going
The party ain't over just because QE ended. It's definitely changing though...
16 March 2022
🔔 Why The Fed Won't Go Big Tonight
They should, but they probably won't. Why? Because slow and steady is the 'least bad' option.
15 March 2022
🔔 Building Golden Bridges
War fatigue has set in for markets. Time to build those golden bridges before things get worse...
14 March 2022
🔔 Munger's Bad Alibaba Bet
Munger's Martingale strategy ain't looking pretty... Neither's the Hang Seng... Or China's second largest developer...
11 March 2022
🔔 Putin makes everything OK... then it's not...
Right, before we get into today's piece, shout out to Macrodesiac partner Syscoin.
10 March 2022
🔔 Try A Little... Patience
"[INSERT MARKET]... is a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient.”
08 March 2022
🔔 Nuclear Power: A Question Of Time Part 2
The Veteran explains the evolution of nuclear power, and how Germany came to rely on Russian gas...
07 March 2022
🔔 Nuclear Power: A Question Of Time
The evolution of nuclear power, and how Germany came to rely on Russian gas...
04 March 2022
🔔 JPMorgan's "Secret" Plans
Secret plans to move into private equity and compete with the Fintechs. Have they got their timing wrong?
03 March 2022
🔔 How Does X Make Money?
Are you SURE you know how your favourite companies make money?
02 March 2022
🔔 There's Another European Crisis Brewing
Could the ECB intervene... When energy prices are soaring, what good is a weaker currency to you?
01 March 2022
🔔 The Fog Of War
It's easy to get sucked into the good vs evil, crazed dictator gone mad narratives. Information overload + emotion = the fog of war
28 February 2022
🔔 Bruh, Central Banks Won't Hike
The Fed won't hike and the return to easy-money policy means BTFD. Don't bank on it
25 February 2022
🔔 The "Why Don't They Just" Filter...
The "why don't they just" filter is a simple, yet effective way to detect BS. e.g. "Why don't they just stop importing Russian Oil?"
18 February 2022
🔔 China's Consumption Crunch
Whether it's the property crackdown or pandemic policies, China's low consumption is concerning
17 February 2022
🔔 Zoltan Says The Quiet Part Out Loud
The Fed could fight inflation by killing the housing & stock markets...
16 February 2022
🔔 There Are No Answers: Stop Looking
What's going to happen next? What does this mean for stocks? Spoiler Alert! Nobody 'knows'
15 February 2022
🔔 Forget Russia & Ukraine, There's Tension Everywhere
From Trudeau's overreach to China's trade deal, trust is in short supply. It's also the currency of a prosperous society and free trade...
14 February 2022
🔔 Big Tech Need To Cough Up
EU Telecoms giants want big tech firms to pay their way... Will they get their wish?
11 February 2022
🔔 China Policy Advisor Backs MMT & UBI...
Free money for everyone under forty and the end of the USD as reserve currency. Radical policy coming to China?
10 February 2022
🔔 Who Can Stop Disney From Taking Over The World?
Disney will take over the world. Who's going to stop them? Netflix? Pffffttt!
09 February 2022
🔔 The Rocky Balboa Of Businesses
The Veteran's found the Rocky Balboa of businesses, but how much is it worth...? (Includes Bonus Rocky Music)
08 February 2022
🔔 Tomorrow's Token Economy
Let's just tokenize EVERYTHING. Start with the stock market and see where it leads...
07 February 2022
🔔 "Trust The Data"
The AMAZING jobs report that was actually pretty meh. The data's not your friend. It can't be trusted...
03 February 2022
🔔 Bank Of England Hikes But "Don't Get Carried Away"
"We did it because we had to not because we wanted to"
02 February 2022
🔔 The Psychology of a Stock Split
Google's Stock Split - A Psychological Trick... Cloud & Servers key growth areas for tech stocks
01 February 2022
🔔 The Confidence Compass
Beware 'data-driven' central banks and anyone forecasting the future with a high degree of confidence...
31 January 2022
🔔 The Veteran's Moats and Multiples
"Do they have a moat or is their value based on prevailing market sentiment and little else?"
28 January 2022
🔔 Zombies, Recessions & De-Regulation
The Zombies Rise Again Germany 'on brink of recession' Brexit De-regulation
27 January 2022
🔔 Party's Over: One Zillion Rate Hikes
"The Fed called time, we're hiking seven times, 50bps at the next meeting, get out while you can"
26 January 2022
🔔 Do I buy the stocks or not?
Powell's back in the spotlight later Will he shock markets or whisper sweet nothings in their ear...?
25 January 2022
🔔 Quantitative 101: Easing, Tapering & Tightening (QE/QT)
Differences between Quantitative Easing, Quantitative Tapering & Quantitative Tightening often confuse people. #MacrodesiacFixesThis
24 January 2022
🔔 De-Centralised Dream Or Dystopia
"Some amazing technological progress will undoubtedly be born from this phase of the digital evolution, I just don't think a fully de-centralised world will ever exist."
21 January 2022
🔔 The Immigrants Will Save Us
Governments are panicking about labour shortages and ageing populations. Immigration is about to become a hot topic...
20 January 2022
🔔 China: The Lehman Moment That Never Was
Where's the economic collapse the people were promised?
19 January 2022
🔔 The Consumption Life Cycle
An economic model that's especially useful right now...
18 January 2022
🔔 Why DeFi Is Like Betfair
Betfair set out to "democratise bookmaking". DeFi wants to do the same for traditional markets. Will they share the same fate?
14 January 2022
🔔 Is The Fed Panicking Or Planning?
The Fed are back in the spotlight. It's not just the 7% CPI driving their decisions... 👇
13 January 2022
🔔 Will Electric Dreams Turn To Nightmares?
The hype around Electric Vehicles as The Future™ could soon hit the wall of reality... 👇
12 January 2022
🔔 Why Gold Is A Doomer Asset
It's not an inflation hedge It's not 'sound money' So why own it?
10 January 2022
🔔 Is The US Consumer Tapped Out Already?
US consumer debt expanded by a record amount in November with no sign of excess savings being splurged... Soon time for growth fears to take over from inflation fears?
07 January 2022
🔔 What is 'the market' telling us?
"The market is telling us... [insert narrative]" Except when it isn't...
04 January 2022
🔔 Do Narratives & Feelings Beat Facts & Data?
“You don’t give a sh*t about facts, it’s all about fiction. The only world that matters is the one in here and you people believe the craziest sh*t.”
03 January 2022
🔔 Regime Change & The Great New Dawn
Lots of chatter about regime changes and new dawns. Do those claims stand up to scrutiny?
22 December 2021
🔔 Making The Most of Twitter Part 2
Our list of top Twitter accounts to follow, using advanced search, lists and making the most of the ULTIMATE Osmosis learning platform
21 December 2021
🔔 China's Louis Vuitton Love Affair Is On Borrowed Time
Commoditized luxury isn't something a 'socially aware' China should buy into.. “From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs”
20 December 2021
🔔 Will China Roar in 2022?
2022 is China's Year of the Tiger. But we don't see them roaring...
17 December 2021
🔔 This Changes EVERYTHING
What if your phone could last a whole week without charging? No battery upgrade. Just the latest innovation 👇
16 December 2021
🔔 Making the Most of Twitter
Twitter is an amazing resource. It's also an attention drain. So how can you get the most out of it?
15 December 2021
🔔 Catching Zombies Before They Zombify...
The Veteran's gone zombie hunting. Singling out firms in the S&P 500 that aren't quite zombies yet, but might be in the near future...
14 December 2021
🔔 China's On The Bezzle & They're Not Alone
Bezzle is my new favourite word. It might be yours too after reading this... "There is a collective increase in psychic wealth as the value of the bezzle rises"
13 December 2021
🔔 The Path Of Least Regret
The path of least regret: How our illustrious leaders and their key policymakers *actually* make decisions (most of the time)
10 December 2021
🔔 FX: Beta Kings... Emerging Market Currencies Part 2
A deeper look at emerging markets. Argentina's fall, South Korea's rise & is Poland gonna make it?
09 December 2021
🔔 FX: Beta Kings... Emerging Market Currencies Part 1
Rounding off the FX series with the best of the bunch. If you enjoy volatility, pain, and always go back to your crazy ex for more, then these are the currencies for you!
07 December 2021
🔔 The Role of Divergence
For a while everything was in Up Only 🚀 mode. Now things are starting to shift under the surface of the indices... Divergence is a theme that underlies the current market whether we realise it or not.
06 December 2021
🔔 FX: What Makes A Currency Cyclical?
Everything you wanted to know about cyclical currencies! The death of interest rate differentials and what really drives cyclical FX trades
03 December 2021
🔔 FX: The Euro's Just... Special
Is the Euro a funding currency or a pro-cyclical currency? And why it isn't truly considered a safe haven...
02 December 2021
🔔 FX: Know Your Safe Havens
Which currencies do investors run to when they're scared? And more importantly, WHY?
01 December 2021
🔔 FX Havens To High Betas: How well do you know your currencies?
Sure you can name the currencies, but how well do you know them really?
30 November 2021
🔔 Why Does AUDJPY Rise & Fall With Stock Indices?
These two markets ARE correlated, and it's not because of fair value models or the Big Mac Index 👇
29 November 2021
🔔 When Generalisation Beats Specialisation
Generalisation is unavoidable and necessary. It's an excessively tainted word.
26 November 2021
🔔 100 Days To Change The Vax
Covid panic is back A new "variant of concern" might see a bleaker winter than hoped. The world is better prepared this time...
24 November 2021
🔔 A Big Property Mistake
The future of the US housing market, demographic cliffs, and errr... Agenda 21 conspiracy theories
23 November 2021
🔔 The Dogs of The S&P 500
The Macrodesiac Veteran has been diving into the S&P 500 again, rummaging through the goods, the bads, and the absolute dogs...
22 November 2021
🔔 The Price Of Progress
Modern society disproportionately rewards innovators and asset-holders. Is inequality simply the price of progress?
19 November 2021
🔔 Death To The Euro
Lockdowns and restrictions being announced in Europe, plus a perma-dovish ECB Will the euro ever rally again?
18 November 2021
🔔 The Problem With Old People
We often hear how tough it is for youngsters starting out... The older generation are trapped too, just in a different way.
16 November 2021
🔔 The Wisdom Of Crowds & The Art of Being Wrong
Are You A Being Of Superior Intellect, like me? Or are you frequently wrong, like the rest of us...?
15 November 2021
🔔 Barriers To Earnings Growth
The Veteran's take on the positive earnings growth seen in 2021 so far, and the potential barriers for that growth to continue...
12 November 2021
🔔 Should You Listen To The Experts?
"Listen to the experts!" If only it were so simple...
10 November 2021
🔔 Abandon The Average
Easy to understand & easy to explain. People LOVE to use averages. But should they?
09 November 2021
🔔 Can the metaverse solve real world problems?
If things are improving without people having to make any real sacrifice, that change lasts and we call it social progress... Where does the metaverse fit in?
08 November 2021
🔔 Why China's Trade Surplus Matters...
China runs a huge trade surplus with the US. Worlds consumer vs worlds factory Why is this such a problem?
05 November 2021
🔔 "Central Banks Are Trapped, They've LOST CONTROL"
Depending who you listen to, central banks are TRAPPED, have LOST CONTROL, or are RECKLESSLY OUT OF CONTROL... What if I told you they weren't ever IN control...?
04 November 2021
🔔 Doubling Down On 'Transitory'
Yeah, the Fed did it again and doubled down on 'transitory' with their dovish taper, but let's go all narcissist & focus on what WE said earlier in the year...
03 November 2021
🔔 Why you should become a non-binary investor
Don't worry, we haven't gone woke... What's the 'right' way to think about markets?
02 November 2021
🔔 What Will The Fed Do?
Taper is nailed on for tomorrow's meeting. Will the Fed respond to inflation? Will they panic and hike rates? What if rate hikes are actually inflationary?
01 November 2021
🔔 Death Of Deflation, Here Comes The Taxation...
Are we entering the exponential age or about to be clobbered with exponential taxation? And the myth of free markets in an era of bailout capitalism
29 October 2021
🔔 Is This Priced In?
Is THIS priced in, is THAT priced in? The eternal market mystery... Just because you can't see something, that doesn't mean it doesn't exist
28 October 2021
🔔 The Great Resignation Isn't What It Seems
Striketober! The Great Resignation! POWER TO THE WORKERS! ✊✊✊ Now it's time to get back to reality...
27 October 2021
🔔 Trust The Science
Wait, it's not about the science? Never has been... Reality is flexible "THIS IS OVERBOUGHT, I'M SELLING"
26 October 2021
🔔 Who's driving the S&P 500?
Over to The Veteran today for his take on the S&P 500 drivers S&P 500 Energy stocks have been amongst the best performers. The energy sector index has risen by +20% over the last 30 days.
25 October 2021
🔔 Hyperinflation Hyperbole
Predictions of hyperinflation are nothing new Let's not worry too much about what Jack may (or may not) actually think. Let's start by defining hyperinflation properly
22 October 2021
🔔 Got A Problem? Blame The Fed
Everything's the Fed's fault. I see it every day on the internetz. But is it true?
21 October 2021
🔔 Drowning in Bullsh*t
Bullsh*t stacked on top of bullsh*t, amplified by more bullsh*t, with bullsh*t sprinkles on top. Not a healthy diet...
20 October 2021
🔔 Polexit, Frexit: EU'll Do Nothing
Poland have the upper hand, there'll be no Polexit... The Industrial Re-Revolution Subtract and simplify is a great strategy for pretty much anything
19 October 2021
🔔 Roll Out The Green Carpet
"I'm given to understand that there's $24 trillion represented in this room and so I want to say to each and every one of those dollars: you're very welcome in the UK"
18 October 2021
🔔 The NeverEnding Stimulus Story
France could issue 'Petrol Cheques' & Sunak could cut VAT on energy... Bank Of England is about to implode (Tenreyro for Governor) The Plastic Recycling Problem
15 October 2021
🔔 So you're a LINEAR thinker? NGMI
Linear thinking is easy, Non-linear thinking is hard mRNA Cancer 'vaccines' How long until Evergrande debts are uncovered?
14 October 2021
🔔 Supply Chain Fixed & Christmas Saved: Thank You Mr President!
🚨 Sarcasm detected! POTUS is trying to fix the supply chains Gas companies are failing Taleb's smugly pointing at 'antifragile'
13 October 2021
🔔 BlackRock, Correlations & the Monthly Deutsche Bank Lawsuit
BlackRock taking over the world, looking for that $10 trillion Correlations are for Christmas, not for life And Deutsche Bank (allegedly) doing their thing again...
12 October 2021
🔔 Dividends or Growth... Why not have Both?
Be greedy and have it all! The Veteran with his latest on the Dividends vs Growth debate
11 October 2021
🔔 Will the Pre-Covid economy ever return?
Is 'Pre-Covid' even a useful benchmark for economic recovery? Local Chinese governments supporting low-tier Chinese property markets Banks report earnings this week: Is the party over?
08 October 2021
🔔 Currency Wars: When Stronger Is Better
Stronger currencies for cheaper imports Fed taper nailed on after jobs report Business is business, and sovereign wealth funds are wealthy
07 October 2021
🔔 "Every single stock she has bought in the last two years has gone up significantly"
The greatest trader that ever lived is a woman Should central banks be hiking rates NOW to fight inflation? Move over Klarna, the big boys are back in town...
06 October 2021
🔔 Growth Stocks Losing Out To The High Dividend Index
Growth stocks tend to struggle when bond yields are rising. How about some chunky dividend returns instead?
05 October 2021
🔔 The Nuclear Penny Has Finally Dropped
Suddenly, nuclear is a big part of the future energy picture. Odds on JayPow getting the chop are narrowing...
04 October 2021
🔔 Shipping Crisis Can't Get Any Worse, Can It?
Returning to 'normal' is not an option. Companies are feeling the pain of extortionate costs while investment in port automation and tech is increasing dramatically.
01 October 2021
🔔 Spiralling Back to the '70s
This back to the '70s theme is doing the rounds again. There are some similarities, but we're not going back... Work From Home is here to stay, and low paid city jobs will suffer. The "profoundly positive" Merck Covid pill
30 September 2021
🔔 Tesla's Top Fans Hit The Exit
Chamath & Cathie are selling, but for different reasons... The Big Green Government Nudge The Q3 story: "Demand is high, we're making more sales, but profits are down..."
29 September 2021
🔔 So you want to be a landlord?
Why it might not be the best time to become a landlord... Want to miss the wood for the trees? Start by blaming everything on Brexit.
28 September 2021
🔔 The ESG Harvest
"The ESG index has outperformed its Non-ESG rival by almost 10%" "Is that the kind of performance you can afford to ignore?"
27 September 2021
🔔 What would it take for this to be true?
One question to filter predictions about the future: What would it take for this to be true? Rolls Royce didn't go bust... it's going nuclear
24 September 2021
🔔 Are you concerned about the current fluctuations in the world's economy?
Every time I try to watch a YouTube video, I get asked that question 👆 Here's why you shouldn't be even a tiny bit concerned...
23 September 2021
🔔 US debt ceiling: Could the government default?
Technically yes. But they won't. So why do we go through with this charade every few years?
22 September 2021
🔔 Gensler's gonna get ya...
Regulators are getting louder: "If they want high yields, make them buy Argentinian bonds instead!" Wait, that was someone else...
21 September 2021
🔔 Does nobody Xi the real risk?
About China, not Evergrande... 👇 Falling property values don't square with Xi's grand plan to boost middle-class consumers...
20 September 2021
🔔 Hey, did you hear about that Chinese property developer?
"YES! Everyone has! Stop going on about it! It's CONTAINED" "OMG, he said contagion, sell everything!"
17 September 2021
🔔 Don't worry about that Economist cover...
DeFi-ing the odds (and the magazine cover curse), regulators are way behind UBS said a thing, everyone PANIC Under the surface of the 'Great Generational Wealth Transfer'
16 September 2021
🔔 The Veteran's Autumn View
September has a poor reputation for stock market returns and last year we saw a -10% correction in US equities over a two and half week period... Repeat or clear skies ahead?
15 September 2021
🔔 Europe's energy crisis: what's going on?
Energy prices are through the roof, politicians are squirming and it's not even winter yet.. COT Report: Does it matter? Revisiting 'Luxury Beliefs' after the AOC show
14 September 2021
🔔 Good News & Bad News...
Good News: mRNA Cancer Therapy Breakthrough! Bad News: RIP China's Property Market Evergrande isn't too big to fail Litecoin hoax never passed the sniff test
13 September 2021
🔔 The Metaverse is already here…
Heard about the metaverse? It's the Next Big Thing™ and I won't have anyone say otherwise. Apple, 'the evil gatekeepers' will launch the new iPhone tomorrow And Druck's early mistake...
10 September 2021
🔔 What's the point of Buy Now, Pay Later?
Getting people to 'spend money they don't have' or an entirely new parallel network? The true cost of the pandemic waiting to be tallied... Defaulting on the most expensive home in America
09 September 2021
🔔 Factors that matter in Q4
The Veteran's views for September & Q4. "the omens for continued gains in equity markets are positive"
08 September 2021
🔔 China, CHINA, CHINA! 📉
Will China go the way of Japan? It won't be too long before we find out... Ah, and the Fed DO buy stocks!
07 September 2021
🔔 The NGMI Edition: Electric Vehicles, Supply Chains & Politicians
Electric Vehicles are 'only for the rich' Supply chains disrupting production well into next year... When's the political revolution?
31 August 2021
🔔 A BORING! yet sustainable investing strategy
The Veteran runs the numbers for boring, sustainable, yet profitable investing. An 82.45% chance of a positive return over two years doesn't sound too boring!
27 August 2021
🔔 Chaos breeds innovation
Chaos isn't always a bad thing, especially when it breeds innovation... Supply chain's screwed for another year And a Quant perspective on today's Jackson Hole outcome
26 August 2021
🔔 "Protection from what? Zee Germans?"
Well, yeah actually Turkish, you smarta*se. Making Hays while the sun shines... R.I.P Ryanair?
25 August 2021
🔔 Ask stupid questions, get thoughtful replies...
Wait, that's not how it's supposed to work! We've had enough of your regulations, morals, and low yields, we're going to crypto! What's going on with this $3.5 trillion? Xi's Plan. Common prosperity or power grab?
24 August 2021
🔔 When outperformance isn't all it seems...
Genuine long term outperformance of a market or other benchmark is a scarce commodity, and there are far too many claims of above average performance among fund and managers for them to be plausible.
23 August 2021
🔔 The Lazy Unemployed Narrative
No benefits, but still not back to work... Chinese Country Garden to follow Evergrande And the UK stamp duty holiday isn't to blame for high house prices...
20 August 2021
🔔 In defence of Amazon
I know it's a tough sell but Amazon doesn't exist in a vacuum... Plus, payment providers overstepping the mark
19 August 2021
🔔 Want some Louis Vuitton at a discount?
Louis Vuitton & China's 'Peak inequality' Amazon death star continues global takeover Facebook's metaverse is coming to a hybrid workplace near you
18 August 2021
🔔 Economic power shifts, marshmallows & manipulated data
Global economic power continues to shift from West to East Stick cooperation into your economic models! Can China's official data be trusted?
17 August 2021
🔔 BlackRock Says 'Invest in China'
BlackRock say that the world's second largest economy is no longer an emerging market. Older people are deflationary And a Love Island/Basement Jaxx economic mashup!
16 August 2021
🔔 Taliban to tie up with China?
Taliban to tie up with China? China's economy is looking fragile... Plus a framework for trading the dollar...
16 August 2021
Morning Call: Afghanistan has fallen, China weighs on the Aussie and UK house prices facing a peak
the situation in Afghanistan, and the Aussie dollar getting hit by a double whammy of China slowdown (and data misses) alongside Australian lockdowns
13 August 2021
🔔 Disney's business is a beautiful beast
📺 The unstoppable Disney machine 🗺️ Indoor mapping for hybrid work 😤 The forgotten 'feeling' that drives crypto development
12 August 2021
🔔 Football's getting 'Messi' & Bilderberg for economists...
Football's business insanity is fantastic, but those finances are a long way from fixed... Heard of the Bilderberg meetings? Turns out there's an economist version Bleak outlook for Thailands' tourism industry
11 August 2021
🔔 Biden begs OPEC, a Dovish taper, and hidden infrastructure winners
Biden says OPEC should increase production (no chance) Fed's incoming dovish taper Hidden infrastructure winners
10 August 2021
🔔 Stagflation Or Bust?
Stagflation has seen a lot of coverage lately... Is it truly unavoidable?
09 August 2021
🔔 Higher wages & index misunderstandings... Will the Fed spoil the party?
Wages are going up (for now): can the trend continue? Index hate (especially the DXY) Kaplan's deeper insights on a Fed taper decision
06 August 2021
🔔 Hey China, we really miss you, let's meet up. xoxo
Loveletters to China from US trade groups S&P to 4700 this year, then 10,000 Tesla isn't in the big boys EV club Comparing WW2 blackouts to vaccinations
05 August 2021
🔔 A trillion dollars that nobody wants...
Bank of England Snoozefest, low rates forever $1 trillion that nobody wants… What if (cash cow) business travel never recovers?
04 August 2021
🔔 Beg for energy you peasants
The EU haven't put it in those *exact* words, but energy costs ARE soaring (and it's all their fault)... Innovation vs Regulation: Bitcoin edition SHOCK! Skills shortages lead to wage increases And making water out of thin air...
03 August 2021
🔔 Brexit was actually a good idea
There's no official post-Brexit vision for Britain, but there doesn't need to be... The EU's 'unity through diversity' problem And why you shouldn't become a trader...
02 August 2021
🔔 Read Now, Pay Later
Square's purchase of Afterpay will probably work, but will always be seen as expensive. SNB printing and minting BILLIONS (while providing value to shareholders)
30 July 2021
🔔 Regulate EVERYTHING
Regulators are suddenly out in force, insisting businesses know their customers, prosecuting frauds, even Chinese IPO's have been canned for now...
29 July 2021
🔔 The (Old) Economy Strikes Back
'Old' economy stocks are roaring, big earnings & shareholder payouts. The FTSE's had a great day but Greta won't be happy...
28 July 2021
🔔 The beats go on, but will Robinhood IPO mark the top?
Massive earnings beats continue, Robinhood IPO looms large over BTFDers and the Dividend Aristocrats maintain that boring is best...
27 July 2021
🔔 🎵 Feed the world, make it a... Oh wait we can!
What if we actually could feed the ENTIRE world? Tech breakthrough & Brexit dividend Trading WITH the trend! And Uber's life-saving technology
26 July 2021
🔔 Today is Monday so this will be the BEST thing you've ever read
What's Monday got to do with it being the best? Don't give me cheap "correlation doesn't equal causation" gibes. It gets old and the burden of proof is on you.
23 July 2021
🔔 Sooner or later, we're going nuclear ☢
Nuclear fusion is now more of an engineering + business problem than a science problem Emerging Markets vulnerable? What's SNAPening?
22 July 2021
🔔 Wanna play FTSE?
⚖ Unilever 'weighs' on the FTSE 100 🌞 S&P seasonality shock? 🥝 Monetary policy getting interesting down under
21 July 2021
🔔 Airline Stocks: Taking Flight or Delta Downed?
✈️ Airlines were filed under 'pretty screwed, let's see what happens' but Q2 earnings show cautious optimism 🏡📉 Evergrande Latest: Mortgages withdrawn in Hong Kong 💰 Buybacks are BACK!
20 July 2021
🔔 EverInferior: Chinese property giant facing a fall
Evergrande in freefall, Oil's road to recovery & a solution to the profit-snatching problem
19 July 2021
🔔 Yes, it's f***ing political. Everything's political
Nothing is safe from the slippery tentacles of politics. Everything's political
16 July 2021
🔔 The Stagflation Apocalypse
Have you heard? The world is ending. Stagflation is imminent and our money isn't backed by anything other than blind faith.
15 July 2021
🔔 Jobs are coming back... but not all of them
Companies are trying to save money so they're cutting back on labour, and investing in automation. Re-skilling boom ahead?
14 July 2021
🔔 Peak Growth Or Just The Beginning?
73% of investors think the global economy is mid or late cycle. I think they're wrong...
13 July 2021
🔔 Big Banks Are Making Big Profits
The first two banks to report were Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. Both had monster quarters and big profits... Let's dive in...
12 July 2021
🔔 Building Resilience Through Failure
Guess where the inspiration for this one came from... ⚽😭 There are always lessons in failure, especially for traders...
09 July 2021
🔔 The Death of The U.S. Consumer...
The death of the U.S. Consumer has been greatly exaggerated...
08 July 2021
🔔 Why China is cracking down on Big Tech
Why do China seem to hate their Big Tech giants? Didi was the latest to feel the wrath of the regulators almost immediately after its U.S. IPO.
07 July 2021
🔔 What's the point of OPEC? 🛢
OPEC+ struggle to reach agreement. Some say they're nothing but a shady price-fixing cartel... Why does OPEC+ even exist?
06 July 2021
🔔 Pandexit: Lies, Statistics & The 'New Normal'
The pandemic is OVER: Stats don't lie. Now it's time to make sense of the 'new normal' of hybrid work...
05 July 2021
🔔 What do you want to know?
The idiot's guide to inflation was so well received. We want to do more! What confuses you? Tell us what you want to know more about...!
02 July 2021
🔔 An idiot's guide to inflation
Inflation 📈 It seems like such a simple concept... but it can also make you feel like an idiot.
30 June 2021
🔔 Big Tech breakups won't happen: Let them fight it out!
A fight to the death, Gladiator style, then regulate the winner. The Hunger Games for Big Tech (but who gets the streaming rights...?)
29 June 2021
🔔 The Future Of Housing
Will your future landlord be a pension fund? Unlikely. But it probably won't be Joe Bloggs either...
28 June 2021
🔔 Europe's losing another tourist season
The 'United Europe' hopes are done. Losing another summer to Covid will have a further negative impact on employment, especially in the tourism-dependent Southern nations.
25 June 2021
🔔 Want to predict the future?
The impossible dream... but what if your predictions could be more accurate?
24 June 2021
🔔 Are investors too optimistic about Amazon?
'If Amazon were to pull it off, it would be the most aggressive expansion of a giant company in the history of modern business.' They DID pull it off. How did they do it, and what role do the 'intangibles' play?
23 June 2021
🔔 Saylor The Saviour
Saylor: "I'm a bit more mature, maybe an older, wiser visionary." Santayana: "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it..."
22 June 2021
🔔 What if 'Going Green' is too expensive?
Manufacturing costs are increasing Oil prices are increasing Energy demand will keep increasing. Can clean energy scale fast enough to meet it?
21 June 2021
🔔 A different type of housing crisis
How can a Swedish government collapse over plans to ease rent controls? What's going on?! Capitalist pigs vs liberal left or something deeper?
18 June 2021
🔔 Katchup On Chips?
Chip manufacturing capacity is likely to take a year or two to catch up to demand, although the worst is supposedly behind us... What about the future beyond that?
17 June 2021
🔔 Who wants to live forever?
The one about a podcast on synthetic biology that blew my mind... The software of life and infinite possibilities...
16 June 2021
🔔 No sweets for you!!
Bitcoin Maximalists vs Central Bank Digital Currencies is a non-battle. The pace of digital currency adoption has been pretty stunning and the CBDC chatter has moved on from 'will they?' to 'when will they?'
15 June 2021
🔔 Today's Solutions Are Tomorrow's Problems...
World trade is a never-ending cycle of problems and solutions. The shipping crisis will be no different...
14 June 2021
🔔 U.S. Equities: Clues From Q1 Earnings
The Macrodesiac Veteran has been scouring the Q1 earnings reports. Here's what he found...
11 June 2021
🔔 What's the next big risk?
Inflation risk is getting all of the headlines. Now that inflation has peaked, where is the next risk coming from? Here's a few ideas...
09 June 2021
🔔 What is a Zombie Company?
Commentators love talking about zombies, but what are they really, and why should you care?
08 June 2021
🔔 How to be right and still lose money
It's a true art form... How can traders be right yet still lose money?
07 June 2021
🔔 Bitcoin can solve the energy problem
Not enough people truly care about green energy and the future right now, but give them a way to profit from it, and you can bet they suddenly will...
04 June 2021
🔔 Death of the dollar
For the thousandth time, the dollars' end is upon us. The King is on his death bed again... Why does this keep happening?
03 June 2021
🔔 Fake jobs & fake wages
No more unemployment benefits for you... And Bitcoin trouble ahead?
02 June 2021
🔔 Why most 'news' doesn’t matter
How do you know what to pay attention to, and what to ignore?
01 June 2021
🔔 Can China outgrow its debt?
Achieving this transition whilst deleveraging is a monumental challenge. China's rise or fall (and everything in between) will have a huge impact on the investing landscape for years to come.
28 May 2021
🔔 Icahn's 'Perfect Short' Commercial Property Bet
Icahn's big short on commercial mortgages is starting to pay out... And there's more to come
27 May 2021
🔔 Here's why Amazon & MGM are the perfect match...
Did Amazon overpay or is there more to this story? $8.45 billion is a high price for MGM who were reportedly available for a mere $5 billion at the end of last year... (& get to know Big Tech better)
26 May 2021
🔔 Space(X): The Final Frontier
🚀 Space tourism, mining the moon, colonising mars, and the 'natural maniac' that is Elon Musk 🐷🌽 And food's getting cheaper again. Nom.
24 May 2021
🔔 Why is everyone always wrong about everything?
Why is everyone (else) always wrong about everything? Avoiding ignorance is not the same as seeking knowledge...
19 May 2021
🔔 Will the chip shortage become a chip crisis?
This drop in electronics demand is supposed to be a window for supply to catch up But it looks increasingly likely that the chip shortage will be with us into next year...
18 May 2021
🔔 The worlds most precious commodity
Not gold or copper, it's water. And carbon offsets, but mainly water...
17 May 2021
🔔 Everything is broken, even 'Truth'
In these unprecedented times, the only consensus is that everything will be different somehow No-one agrees HOW & the dominant questions are so open-ended they are practically existential.
14 May 2021
🔔 The comforting myth of certainty
Avoiding uncertainty is hard-wired into every single one of us. Which makes it even stranger that people build careers out of forecasting a highly uncertain future...
13 May 2021
🔔 Mid-Cycle Already?
Morgan Stanley: 2021 will see flattish returns for the year with a 10-20% correction along the way... The mid-cycle transition - are they right?
12 May 2021
🔔 U.S. jobs market: What's going on?
Give people free money and they'll just sit around all day, devoid of all pride in themselves or their endeavours, zero drive to improve their lot in life or do anything more than merely survive on government handouts...
11 May 2021
🔔 No Economics Degree? No Problem
It might actually be a good thing... "economics as a profession is still largely functioning in an industrial age that has no relevance almost to what we have today."
10 May 2021
🔔 Liquidity Is King
If liquidity is KING, why even bother with macro? Macro is NOT macroeconomics or macroeconomic theory... Macro is EVERYTHING
07 May 2021
🔔 What does innovation look like?
Everything you ever wanted to know about innovation...
06 May 2021
🔔 Brand new EU?
"The British took risks by financing the private sector. The Americans took risks. We don't know how to do that yet," Can the EU escape the trap of sluggish growth & minimal innovation?
05 May 2021
🔔You're going to LOVE drone deliveries
and they're coming soon to a town near you... Supply chains and logistics will never be the same again...
04 May 2021
🔔 Warning: May Contain Hidden Costs
If you are taking a portfolio approach it can be tempting to stick a few in ' just because they're cheap'... But it's always worth considering just how long those stocks can remain cheap for...
29 April 2021
🔔 Why asymmetry matters
Asymmetry matters: An imbalance that skews towards greater upside returns with lower downside risk... Revisiting Root Insurance ahead of earnings next week
28 April 2021
🔔 Introducing... Mr Yolo Beeches
Move over Mrs Watanabe, Yolo's taking over your empire... Nailed the Lloyds call - big earnings beat, where next?
27 April 2021
🔔 Unemployment set to rise down under
Australia's jobkeeper expired last month - Their employment progress will offer clues for the U.S. & others as they withdraw stimulus measures later this year
26 April 2021
🔔 Taxes, inequality & generational games
Generational games will filter through to markets - it's only a matter of time...
23 April 2021
🔔 Complacency in a changing world
how can you accurately rate these companies when they're reinventing themselves and/or changing their business models...?
22 April 2021
🔔 Frauds & Destruction
Have you noticed more fraud lately? I certainly have... It's literally everywhere (and I'm trying to figure out if that's good or bad...)
20 April 2021
🔔 Dexit Part ZWEI
Euroscepticism taking hold in Germany is almost unthinkable... Almost.
19 April 2021
🔔 Buffett's economic castles & the European Super League
There's nothing investors love more than certainty... Certainty that the moat is wide enough to keep the competition out...
16 April 2021
🔔 UK tech IPO's - making Britain great again
Britain has never been anything other than Great, but I needed the headline... The wave of UK tech IPO's continues this month...
15 April 2021
🔔 Coining the future of crypto
The Coinbase 'IPO' sees crypto 'come of age', but what does that mean for the future?
14 April 2021
🔔 Big returns for banks - Limited upside from here?
JP Morgan & Goldman Sachs absolutely SMASHED it on their earnings today, with Wells Fargo also posting some strong numbers...
13 April 2021
🔔 When is a bubble not a bubble?
this isn't a Christmas cracker joke, there is an actual answer...
12 April 2021
🔔 China Deleveraging & Some Ridiculous Charts
"Smaller shadow banking together with deleveraging reform suggests that financial market risks are under control" But are they?
09 April 2021
🔔 Europe's Complacency Trap
'The flow of capital into higher-yielding dollar instruments will weaken the euro, and Europe will use that depreciation to eke out whatever growth it can by tapping external demand'
08 April 2021
🔔 JPMorgan sets sights on FinTech competitors
'acquisitions are in our future, and fintech is an area where some of that cash could be put to work'
07 April 2021
🔔 Time For Some Market Karate
HEEEEEYAAAH! Calls for a choppy correction in equities, the year of the stockpicker, and the WFH reality...
06 April 2021
🔔 IMF projects stronger global recovery
“The US is really the only large economy whose economic output for 2022 is projected to exceed what it would have been in the absence of this pandemic.”
01 April 2021
🔔 Super Deductions & The Green Revolution
UK Super deduction tax savings, Green hydrogen, PMI truths,, Glencore & more...
31 March 2021
🔔 IPO doesnt deliver(oo)
Tech looking up, VOLTSWagen's early April Fools, Chart Crimes... Long AAPL? DeliverooOhhhhhNoooooo
30 March 2021
🔔 Digging Into Bitcoin's Institutional Narrative
📈 '...speculative investors seeking to front run other more real-money institutional investors,'
29 March 2021
🔔 Banks Hwang on too long & book big losses
By the time a market move is in the news and everyone has published their hot take, it's usually over... 👀 #marketwisdom
26 March 2021
🔔 Citron 'Root' around for another GameStop...
Citron likes Root, and they make a compelling case for it...
25 March 2021
🔔 China's axe hangs over European fashion stocks
Tensions with China are weighing on European fashion stocks... A sign of things to come...?