π The Market Doesnβt Care About Your Morals
If you want to understand markets, you have to put morals to one side. The world doesn't run on platitudes...
If you want to understand markets, you have to put morals to one side. The world doesn't run on platitudes...
Why we could see more yuan weakness ahead, plus risk of a dollar funding squeeze in the smaller Asian economies...
Zombies on the verge of collapse doesn't tell the whole story. The Veteran's mining for hidden gems in the small-cap world
βSome parts of private equity look like a pyramid schemeβ βYou know you can sell to another private equity firm for 20 or 30 times earnings. Thatβs why you can talk about a Ponzi. Itβs a circular thing.β
Just as the housing market slows, and interest rates rise. Top timing as always. And Cathie Wood's price targets are outrageous for a reason.
Has the recession already started? 15% of CEO's say yes... Keep a close eye on the zeitgeist and longer-term bonds
Will they do 50, 75, or a gazillion? Don't guess and gamble, read our preview! And then sit it out, like anyone with any sense...
As soon as the Fed meeting's out of the way, the market's focus will shift to profit margins It won't be pretty...
The Veteran's in command today with his thoughts on the intricate craft of trading and lessons from the battlefield...
No black swans, just maximum FUD heading into the weekend.
"It's simple supply and demand" Except supply and demand isn't always as simple as we'd like it to be...
Too Much Stuff | China's Bad Bank | The One Month Fertilizer Shortage | Not Enough Energy
Thursday's ECB meeting will set the stage for hikes in July & September. Fragmentation risks will need to be addressed if they want to go faster...
The energy picture is looking seriously messy. (Even more) difficult and unpopular decisions lie ahead...
Day 1: "QT starts, stocks go down LOL" Day 2: "OK genius. Why was Nasdaq up 2.7% today? Did QT end after one day?" "Dunno, got rekt, LOL"
We all love a good story. And markets are FULL of storytellers. How well do you understand stories and the rules of the game?
Production targets aren't being hit. IEA's Birol says it'll be worse than the '70s. Oil to $300 if history rhymes...?
Over to The Veteran today, with his thoughts on the relationships between risk, reward, and what we think we know that just ain't so...
If easy money leads to bull markets... And economic fears and social unrest lead to easy money... Are you thinking what we're thinking?
Where did all those trillions go? The whole 'money-printing' thing still really confuses people, so we explained it
New home sales freaked everyone out, but this is EXACTLY what the Fed wants. September pivot?
The "China" the West had hoped for isn't joining the party. Game over.
The cynic knows the price of everything and the value of nothing. If you don't understand the value of markets, you're not paying attention.
Everyone's a gambler. But there's a big difference between those that do it deliberately and those that don't.
Walmart & Target are down bad, profits slashed, CEO's turning negative... The Veteran's worried about the US consumer
Money printing doesn't explain the inflation we've seen. It's not even close to being that simple. It's not THAT complicated either... And there might be more to come π
Misery Index Points To Rising Pain Across The Western World Central Banks: "it's for your own good, we love you, the economy is still growing"
PROFIT isn't a dirty word. It's an essential cog in the global economy. Stick your windfall tax up your a*se
The hindsight blame games have started, "everybody" saw this coming... But what does the future hold? Stagflation: A decade of investing disaster?
Move fast and break things is the Fed's new mantra. How far will the collateral damage extend once the dust settles? Tech giants? China? The euro?
Coinbase has "no risk of bankruptcy" so please don't worry. In any case, trader/investor protection has limits.
One of those timeless clichΓ©s that we see play out time and again. Price goes first, then sentiment, then opportunities...
Spending is strong, but the consumer's feeling the pinch now. And here come the layoffs...
The NHS is a huge part of the UK economy, but it's a long way from 'free'
How to announce "the fastest hiking cycle in decades" yet still be perceived as dovish...
FOMC meeting later, and the Fed has telegraphed everything they're going to do: Hike by 50bps (0.5%) & announce QT. So why is anyone worried...?
If Only Amazon's Earnings Hadn't Been So Terrible... | Average Abuse Must End | RBA Finally Hikes Rates
US GDP Goes Negative Due To 'Strong Economy' | Apple's Revenues Nearly $100bn in Q1 But Guidance 'Negative' | China In 'Deep Crisis'
"If everyone's expecting it, it won't happen" | The Next Big Thing in chip technology | Dollar dominates, but for how much longer?
Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it's a giant ponzi, all our hopes and dreams of innovation and progress, and the future of money and energy and....
A man bought a thing. He's now our saviour or wants to watch the world burn apparently Private > Public EURUSD: History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes
Where housing leads, inflation follows...
Disney's up against it: Big Ron's coming for them, the streaming growth engine's in doubt, and they've been given the kiss of death...
Peaks are the theme du jour (French! And people say we're not cultured smh) | Even though Ackman's Netflix bet went wrong, he did the right thing...
China's Weakening Yuan | 263 Rate Hikes | Apple vs Netflix
Something's Got To Give In USDJPY Trust The Bald Guy Twitter Takeover Technicalities Netflix Too Bearish Into Earnings?
Narrative: "There's going to be a new monetary system, backed by commodities" Facts: "There isn't, we already tried it, and it sucked" A few things could change though...
Smart money isn't what you think it is. And "dumb money" isn't just retail with tiny accounts...
Bond yields starting to look attractive (or are they?) & The Veteran's consumer discretionary stocks to watch this earnings season
What makes a housing bubble? Are we in one? And why you're wrong if you think we are...
Why I like PMI's & why you shouldn't move stops to breakeven
"Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated" Globalisation has peaked, but it ain't over
The RBA lost patience, but no hikes yet. The BoC are about to go big And the 'optionality' of ETF's
The Veteran's important questions... If central banks can't fix a stagflationary economy, will governments step up? And if they try, will it work?
Are you a galaxy brain? Can you do galaxy-brain things? Here's some stuff to make you think over the weekend...
What if those transitory inflation calls were right, but early?
The global energy map is being redrawn. Turkey has a role to play...
History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes Which really screws with people who think it'll repeat...
OMFG! The curve thing inverted!! "I don't trade bonds bro. Why should I care?"
The Veteran shares the results of his successful experiment to find stocks that are set to outperform
QE & low rates are supposed to make people and businesses borrow more. That's only half the story...
Everyone knows the half truths... "They print money to pump up the stock market" "Low rates cause stock market bubbles" There's more to it than that
Nothing's fixed. CCP leaders are playing catch up, fighting fires, but this isn't the great transformation.
The Bank of England hiked rates, then said some stuff and GBP sold off. What are they playing at?
The party ain't over just because QE ended. It's definitely changing though...
They should, but they probably won't. Why? Because slow and steady is the 'least bad' option.
War fatigue has set in for markets. Time to build those golden bridges before things get worse...
Munger's Martingale strategy ain't looking pretty... Neither's the Hang Seng... Or China's second largest developer...
Right, before we get into today's piece, shout out to Macrodesiac partner Syscoin.
"[INSERT MARKET]... is a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient.β
The Veteran explains the evolution of nuclear power, and how Germany came to rely on Russian gas...
The evolution of nuclear power, and how Germany came to rely on Russian gas...
Secret plans to move into private equity and compete with the Fintechs. Have they got their timing wrong?
Are you SURE you know how your favourite companies make money?
Could the ECB intervene... When energy prices are soaring, what good is a weaker currency to you?
It's easy to get sucked into the good vs evil, crazed dictator gone mad narratives. Information overload + emotion = the fog of war
The Fed won't hike and the return to easy-money policy means BTFD. Don't bank on it
The "why don't they just" filter is a simple, yet effective way to detect BS. e.g. "Why don't they just stop importing Russian Oil?"
Whether it's the property crackdown or pandemic policies, China's low consumption is concerning
The Fed could fight inflation by killing the housing & stock markets...
What's going to happen next? What does this mean for stocks? Spoiler Alert! Nobody 'knows'
From Trudeau's overreach to China's trade deal, trust is in short supply. It's also the currency of a prosperous society and free trade...
EU Telecoms giants want big tech firms to pay their way... Will they get their wish?
Free money for everyone under forty and the end of the USD as reserve currency. Radical policy coming to China?
Disney will take over the world. Who's going to stop them? Netflix? Pffffttt!
The Veteran's found the Rocky Balboa of businesses, but how much is it worth...? (Includes Bonus Rocky Music)
Let's just tokenize EVERYTHING. Start with the stock market and see where it leads...
The AMAZING jobs report that was actually pretty meh. The data's not your friend. It can't be trusted...
"We did it because we had to not because we wanted to"
Google's Stock Split - A Psychological Trick... Cloud & Servers key growth areas for tech stocks
Beware 'data-driven' central banks and anyone forecasting the future with a high degree of confidence...
"Do they have a moat or is their value based on prevailing market sentiment and little else?"
The Zombies Rise Again Germany 'on brink of recession' Brexit De-regulation
"The Fed called time, we're hiking seven times, 50bps at the next meeting, get out while you can"
Powell's back in the spotlight later Will he shock markets or whisper sweet nothings in their ear...?
Differences between Quantitative Easing, Quantitative Tapering & Quantitative Tightening often confuse people. #MacrodesiacFixesThis
"Some amazing technological progress will undoubtedly be born from this phase of the digital evolution, I just don't think a fully de-centralised world will ever exist."
Governments are panicking about labour shortages and ageing populations. Immigration is about to become a hot topic...
Where's the economic collapse the people were promised?
An economic model that's especially useful right now...
Betfair set out to "democratise bookmaking". DeFi wants to do the same for traditional markets. Will they share the same fate?
The Fed are back in the spotlight. It's not just the 7% CPI driving their decisions... π
The hype around Electric Vehicles as The Futureβ’ could soon hit the wall of reality... π
It's not an inflation hedge It's not 'sound money' So why own it?
US consumer debt expanded by a record amount in November with no sign of excess savings being splurged... Soon time for growth fears to take over from inflation fears?
"The market is telling us... [insert narrative]" Except when it isn't...
What will the Fed do in 2022?
βYou donβt give a sh*t about facts, itβs all about fiction. The only world that matters is the one in here and you people believe the craziest sh*t.β
Lots of chatter about regime changes and new dawns. Do those claims stand up to scrutiny?
Our list of top Twitter accounts to follow, using advanced search, lists and making the most of the ULTIMATE Osmosis learning platform
Commoditized luxury isn't something a 'socially aware' China should buy into.. βFrom each according to his ability, to each according to his needsβ
2022 is China's Year of the Tiger. But we don't see them roaring...
What if your phone could last a whole week without charging? No battery upgrade. Just the latest innovation π
Twitter is an amazing resource. It's also an attention drain. So how can you get the most out of it?
The Veteran's gone zombie hunting. Singling out firms in the S&P 500 that aren't quite zombies yet, but might be in the near future...
Bezzle is my new favourite word. It might be yours too after reading this... "There is a collective increase in psychic wealth as the value of the bezzle rises"
The path of least regret: How our illustrious leaders and their key policymakers *actually* make decisions (most of the time)
A deeper look at emerging markets. Argentina's fall, South Korea's rise & is Poland gonna make it?
Rounding off the FX series with the best of the bunch. If you enjoy volatility, pain, and always go back to your crazy ex for more, then these are the currencies for you!
For a while everything was in Up Only π mode. Now things are starting to shift under the surface of the indices... Divergence is a theme that underlies the current market whether we realise it or not.
Everything you wanted to know about cyclical currencies! The death of interest rate differentials and what really drives cyclical FX trades
Is the Euro a funding currency or a pro-cyclical currency? And why it isn't truly considered a safe haven...
Which currencies do investors run to when they're scared? And more importantly, WHY?
Sure you can name the currencies, but how well do you know them really?
These two markets ARE correlated, and it's not because of fair value models or the Big Mac Index π
Generalisation is unavoidable and necessary. It's an excessively tainted word.
Covid panic is back A new "variant of concern" might see a bleaker winter than hoped. The world is better prepared this time...
The future of the US housing market, demographic cliffs, and errr... Agenda 21 conspiracy theories
The Macrodesiac Veteran has been diving into the S&P 500 again, rummaging through the goods, the bads, and the absolute dogs...
Modern society disproportionately rewards innovators and asset-holders. Is inequality simply the price of progress?
Lockdowns and restrictions being announced in Europe, plus a perma-dovish ECB Will the euro ever rally again?
We often hear how tough it is for youngsters starting out... The older generation are trapped too, just in a different way.
Are You A Being Of Superior Intellect, like me? Or are you frequently wrong, like the rest of us...?
The Veteran's take on the positive earnings growth seen in 2021 so far, and the potential barriers for that growth to continue...
"Listen to the experts!" If only it were so simple...
Easy to understand & easy to explain. People LOVE to use averages. But should they?
If things are improving without people having to make any real sacrifice, that change lasts and we call it social progress... Where does the metaverse fit in?
China runs a huge trade surplus with the US. Worlds consumer vs worlds factory Why is this such a problem?
Depending who you listen to, central banks are TRAPPED, have LOST CONTROL, or are RECKLESSLY OUT OF CONTROL... What if I told you they weren't ever IN control...?
Yeah, the Fed did it again and doubled down on 'transitory' with their dovish taper, but let's go all narcissist & focus on what WE said earlier in the year...
Don't worry, we haven't gone woke... What's the 'right' way to think about markets?
Taper is nailed on for tomorrow's meeting. Will the Fed respond to inflation? Will they panic and hike rates? What if rate hikes are actually inflationary?
Are we entering the exponential age or about to be clobbered with exponential taxation? And the myth of free markets in an era of bailout capitalism
Is THIS priced in, is THAT priced in? The eternal market mystery... Just because you can't see something, that doesn't mean it doesn't exist
Striketober! The Great Resignation! POWER TO THE WORKERS! βββ Now it's time to get back to reality...
Wait, it's not about the science? Never has been... Reality is flexible "THIS IS OVERBOUGHT, I'M SELLING"
Over to The Veteran today for his take on the S&P 500 drivers S&P 500 Energy stocks have been amongst the best performers. The energy sector index has risen by +20% over the last 30 days.
Predictions of hyperinflation are nothing new Let's not worry too much about what Jack may (or may not) actually think. Let's start by defining hyperinflation properly
Everything's the Fed's fault. I see it every day on the internetz. But is it true?
Bullsh*t stacked on top of bullsh*t, amplified by more bullsh*t, with bullsh*t sprinkles on top. Not a healthy diet...
Poland have the upper hand, there'll be no Polexit... The Industrial Re-Revolution Subtract and simplify is a great strategy for pretty much anything
"I'm given to understand that there's $24 trillion represented in this room and so I want to say to each and every one of those dollars: you're very welcome in the UK"
France could issue 'Petrol Cheques' & Sunak could cut VAT on energy... Bank Of England is about to implode (Tenreyro for Governor) The Plastic Recycling Problem
Linear thinking is easy, Non-linear thinking is hard mRNA Cancer 'vaccines' How long until Evergrande debts are uncovered?
π¨ Sarcasm detected! POTUS is trying to fix the supply chains Gas companies are failing Taleb's smugly pointing at 'antifragile'
BlackRock taking over the world, looking for that $10 trillion Correlations are for Christmas, not for life And Deutsche Bank (allegedly) doing their thing again...
Be greedy and have it all! The Veteran with his latest on the Dividends vs Growth debate
Is 'Pre-Covid' even a useful benchmark for economic recovery? Local Chinese governments supporting low-tier Chinese property markets Banks report earnings this week: Is the party over?
Stronger currencies for cheaper imports Fed taper nailed on after jobs report Business is business, and sovereign wealth funds are wealthy
The greatest trader that ever lived is a woman Should central banks be hiking rates NOW to fight inflation? Move over Klarna, the big boys are back in town...
Growth stocks tend to struggle when bond yields are rising. How about some chunky dividend returns instead?
Suddenly, nuclear is a big part of the future energy picture. Odds on JayPow getting the chop are narrowing...
Returning to 'normal' is not an option. Companies are feeling the pain of extortionate costs while investment in port automation and tech is increasing dramatically.
This back to the '70s theme is doing the rounds again. There are some similarities, but we're not going back... Work From Home is here to stay, and low paid city jobs will suffer. The "profoundly positive" Merck Covid pill
Chamath & Cathie are selling, but for different reasons... The Big Green Government Nudge The Q3 story: "Demand is high, we're making more sales, but profits are down..."
Why it might not be the best time to become a landlord... Want to miss the wood for the trees? Start by blaming everything on Brexit.
"The ESG index has outperformed its Non-ESG rival by almost 10%" "Is that the kind of performance you can afford to ignore?"
One question to filter predictions about the future: What would it take for this to be true? Rolls Royce didn't go bust... it's going nuclear
Every time I try to watch a YouTube video, I get asked that question π Here's why you shouldn't be even a tiny bit concerned...
Technically yes. But they won't. So why do we go through with this charade every few years?
Regulators are getting louder: "If they want high yields, make them buy Argentinian bonds instead!" Wait, that was someone else...
About China, not Evergrande... π Falling property values don't square with Xi's grand plan to boost middle-class consumers...
"YES! Everyone has! Stop going on about it! It's CONTAINED" "OMG, he said contagion, sell everything!"
DeFi-ing the odds (and the magazine cover curse), regulators are way behind UBS said a thing, everyone PANIC Under the surface of the 'Great Generational Wealth Transfer'
September has a poor reputation for stock market returns and last year we saw a -10% correction in US equities over a two and half week period... Repeat or clear skies ahead?
Energy prices are through the roof, politicians are squirming and it's not even winter yet.. COT Report: Does it matter? Revisiting 'Luxury Beliefs' after the AOC show
Good News: mRNA Cancer Therapy Breakthrough! Bad News: RIP China's Property Market Evergrande isn't too big to fail Litecoin hoax never passed the sniff test
Heard about the metaverse? It's the Next Big Thingβ’ and I won't have anyone say otherwise. Apple, 'the evil gatekeepers' will launch the new iPhone tomorrow And Druck's early mistake...
Getting people to 'spend money they don't have' or an entirely new parallel network? The true cost of the pandemic waiting to be tallied... Defaulting on the most expensive home in America
The Veteran's views for September & Q4. "the omens for continued gains in equity markets are positive"
Will China go the way of Japan? It won't be too long before we find out... Ah, and the Fed DO buy stocks!
Electric Vehicles are 'only for the rich' Supply chains disrupting production well into next year... When's the political revolution?
The Veteran runs the numbers for boring, sustainable, yet profitable investing. An 82.45% chance of a positive return over two years doesn't sound too boring!
Chaos isn't always a bad thing, especially when it breeds innovation... Supply chain's screwed for another year And a Quant perspective on today's Jackson Hole outcome
Well, yeah actually Turkish, you smarta*se. Making Hays while the sun shines... R.I.P Ryanair?
Wait, that's not how it's supposed to work! We've had enough of your regulations, morals, and low yields, we're going to crypto! What's going on with this $3.5 trillion? Xi's Plan. Common prosperity or power grab?
Genuine long term outperformance of a market or other benchmark is a scarce commodity, and there are far too many claims of above average performance among fund and managers for them to be plausible.
No benefits, but still not back to work... Chinese Country Garden to follow Evergrande And the UK stamp duty holiday isn't to blame for high house prices...
I know it's a tough sell but Amazon doesn't exist in a vacuum... Plus, payment providers overstepping the mark
Louis Vuitton & China's 'Peak inequality' Amazon death star continues global takeover Facebook's metaverse is coming to a hybrid workplace near you
Global economic power continues to shift from West to East Stick cooperation into your economic models! Can China's official data be trusted?
BlackRock say that the world's second largest economy is no longer an emerging market. Older people are deflationary And a Love Island/Basement Jaxx economic mashup!
Taliban to tie up with China? China's economy is looking fragile... Plus a framework for trading the dollar...
the situation in Afghanistan, and the Aussie dollar getting hit by a double whammy of China slowdown (and data misses) alongside Australian lockdowns
πΊ The unstoppable Disney machine πΊοΈ Indoor mapping for hybrid work π€ The forgotten 'feeling' that drives crypto development
Football's business insanity is fantastic, but those finances are a long way from fixed... Heard of the Bilderberg meetings? Turns out there's an economist version Bleak outlook for Thailands' tourism industry
Biden says OPEC should increase production (no chance) Fed's incoming dovish taper Hidden infrastructure winners
Stagflation has seen a lot of coverage lately... Is it truly unavoidable?
Wages are going up (for now): can the trend continue? Index hate (especially the DXY) Kaplan's deeper insights on a Fed taper decision
Loveletters to China from US trade groups S&P to 4700 this year, then 10,000 Tesla isn't in the big boys EV club Comparing WW2 blackouts to vaccinations
Bank of England Snoozefest, low rates forever $1 trillion that nobody wants⦠What if (cash cow) business travel never recovers?
The EU haven't put it in those *exact* words, but energy costs ARE soaring (and it's all their fault)... Innovation vs Regulation: Bitcoin edition SHOCK! Skills shortages lead to wage increases And making water out of thin air...
There's no official post-Brexit vision for Britain, but there doesn't need to be... The EU's 'unity through diversity' problem And why you shouldn't become a trader...
Square's purchase of Afterpay will probably work, but will always be seen as expensive. SNB printing and minting BILLIONS (while providing value to shareholders)
Regulators are suddenly out in force, insisting businesses know their customers, prosecuting frauds, even Chinese IPO's have been canned for now...
'Old' economy stocks are roaring, big earnings & shareholder payouts. The FTSE's had a great day but Greta won't be happy...
Massive earnings beats continue, Robinhood IPO looms large over BTFDers and the Dividend Aristocrats maintain that boring is best...
What if we actually could feed the ENTIRE world? Tech breakthrough & Brexit dividend Trading WITH the trend! And Uber's life-saving technology
What's Monday got to do with it being the best? Don't give me cheap "correlation doesn't equal causation" gibes. It gets old and the burden of proof is on you.
Nuclear fusion is now more of an engineering + business problem than a science problem Emerging Markets vulnerable? What's SNAPening?
β Unilever 'weighs' on the FTSE 100 π S&P seasonality shock? π₯ Monetary policy getting interesting down under
βοΈ Airlines were filed under 'pretty screwed, let's see what happens' but Q2 earnings show cautious optimism π‘π Evergrande Latest: Mortgages withdrawn in Hong Kong π° Buybacks are BACK!
Evergrande in freefall, Oil's road to recovery & a solution to the profit-snatching problem
Nothing is safe from the slippery tentacles of politics. Everything's political
Have you heard? The world is ending. Stagflation is imminent and our money isn't backed by anything other than blind faith.
Companies are trying to save money so they're cutting back on labour, and investing in automation. Re-skilling boom ahead?
73% of investors think the global economy is mid or late cycle. I think they're wrong...
The first two banks to report were Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. Both had monster quarters and big profits... Let's dive in...
Guess where the inspiration for this one came from... β½π There are always lessons in failure, especially for traders...
The death of the U.S. Consumer has been greatly exaggerated...
Why do China seem to hate their Big Tech giants? Didi was the latest to feel the wrath of the regulators almost immediately after its U.S. IPO.
OPEC+ struggle to reach agreement. Some say they're nothing but a shady price-fixing cartel... Why does OPEC+ even exist?
The pandemic is OVER: Stats don't lie. Now it's time to make sense of the 'new normal' of hybrid work...
The idiot's guide to inflation was so well received. We want to do more! What confuses you? Tell us what you want to know more about...!
Inflation π It seems like such a simple concept... but it can also make you feel like an idiot.
A fight to the death, Gladiator style, then regulate the winner. The Hunger Games for Big Tech (but who gets the streaming rights...?)
Will your future landlord be a pension fund? Unlikely. But it probably won't be Joe Bloggs either...
The 'United Europe' hopes are done. Losing another summer to Covid will have a further negative impact on employment, especially in the tourism-dependent Southern nations.
The impossible dream... but what if your predictions could be more accurate?
'If Amazon were to pull it off, it would be the most aggressive expansion of a giant company in the history of modern business.' They DID pull it off. How did they do it, and what role do the 'intangibles' play?
Saylor: "I'm a bit more mature, maybe an older, wiser visionary." Santayana: "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it..."
Manufacturing costs are increasing Oil prices are increasing Energy demand will keep increasing. Can clean energy scale fast enough to meet it?
How can a Swedish government collapse over plans to ease rent controls? What's going on?! Capitalist pigs vs liberal left or something deeper?
Chip manufacturing capacity is likely to take a year or two to catch up to demand, although the worst is supposedly behind us... What about the future beyond that?
The one about a podcast on synthetic biology that blew my mind... The software of life and infinite possibilities...
Bitcoin Maximalists vs Central Bank Digital Currencies is a non-battle. The pace of digital currency adoption has been pretty stunning and the CBDC chatter has moved on from 'will they?' to 'when will they?'
World trade is a never-ending cycle of problems and solutions. The shipping crisis will be no different...
The Macrodesiac Veteran has been scouring the Q1 earnings reports. Here's what he found...
Inflation risk is getting all of the headlines. Now that inflation has peaked, where is the next risk coming from? Here's a few ideas...
Commentators love talking about zombies, but what are they really, and why should you care?
It's a true art form... How can traders be right yet still lose money?
Not enough people truly care about green energy and the future right now, but give them a way to profit from it, and you can bet they suddenly will...
For the thousandth time, the dollars' end is upon us. The King is on his death bed again... Why does this keep happening?
No more unemployment benefits for you... And Bitcoin trouble ahead?
How do you know what to pay attention to, and what to ignore?
Achieving this transition whilst deleveraging is a monumental challenge. China's rise or fall (and everything in between) will have a huge impact on the investing landscape for years to come.
Icahn's big short on commercial mortgages is starting to pay out... And there's more to come
Did Amazon overpay or is there more to this story? $8.45 billion is a high price for MGM who were reportedly available for a mere $5 billion at the end of last year... (& get to know Big Tech better)
π Space tourism, mining the moon, colonising mars, and the 'natural maniac' that is Elon Musk π·π½ And food's getting cheaper again. Nom.
Why is everyone (else) always wrong about everything? Avoiding ignorance is not the same as seeking knowledge...
This drop in electronics demand is supposed to be a window for supply to catch up But it looks increasingly likely that the chip shortage will be with us into next year...
Not gold or copper, it's water. And carbon offsets, but mainly water...
In these unprecedented times, the only consensus is that everything will be different somehow No-one agrees HOW & the dominant questions are so open-ended they are practically existential.
Avoiding uncertainty is hard-wired into every single one of us. Which makes it even stranger that people build careers out of forecasting a highly uncertain future...
Morgan Stanley: 2021 will see flattish returns for the year with a 10-20% correction along the way... The mid-cycle transition - are they right?
Give people free money and they'll just sit around all day, devoid of all pride in themselves or their endeavours, zero drive to improve their lot in life or do anything more than merely survive on government handouts...
It might actually be a good thing... "economics as a profession is still largely functioning in an industrial age that has no relevance almost to what we have today."
If liquidity is KING, why even bother with macro? Macro is NOT macroeconomics or macroeconomic theory... Macro is EVERYTHING
Everything you ever wanted to know about innovation...
"The British took risks by financing the private sector. The Americans took risks. We don't know how to do that yet," Can the EU escape the trap of sluggish growth & minimal innovation?
and they're coming soon to a town near you... Supply chains and logistics will never be the same again...
If you are taking a portfolio approach it can be tempting to stick a few in ' just because they're cheap'... But it's always worth considering just how long those stocks can remain cheap for...
Asymmetry matters: An imbalance that skews towards greater upside returns with lower downside risk... Revisiting Root Insurance ahead of earnings next week
Move over Mrs Watanabe, Yolo's taking over your empire... Nailed the Lloyds call - big earnings beat, where next?
Australia's jobkeeper expired last month - Their employment progress will offer clues for the U.S. & others as they withdraw stimulus measures later this year
Generational games will filter through to markets - it's only a matter of time...
how can you accurately rate these companies when they're reinventing themselves and/or changing their business models...?
Have you noticed more fraud lately? I certainly have... It's literally everywhere (and I'm trying to figure out if that's good or bad...)
π² I read it on Twitter so it must be true...
Euroscepticism taking hold in Germany is almost unthinkable... Almost.
There's nothing investors love more than certainty... Certainty that the moat is wide enough to keep the competition out...
Britain has never been anything other than Great, but I needed the headline... The wave of UK tech IPO's continues this month...
The Coinbase 'IPO' sees crypto 'come of age', but what does that mean for the future?
JP Morgan & Goldman Sachs absolutely SMASHED it on their earnings today, with Wells Fargo also posting some strong numbers...
this isn't a Christmas cracker joke, there is an actual answer...
"Smaller shadow banking together with deleveraging reform suggests that financial market risks are under control" But are they?
'The flow of capital into higher-yielding dollar instruments will weaken the euro, and Europe will use that depreciation to eke out whatever growth it can by tapping external demand'
'acquisitions are in our future, and fintech is an area where some of that cash could be put to work'
HEEEEEYAAAH! Calls for a choppy correction in equities, the year of the stockpicker, and the WFH reality...
βThe US is really the only large economy whose economic output for 2022 is projected to exceed what it would have been in the absence of this pandemic.β
UK Super deduction tax savings, Green hydrogen, PMI truths,, Glencore & more...
Tech looking up, VOLTSWagen's early April Fools, Chart Crimes... Long AAPL? DeliverooOhhhhhNoooooo
π '...speculative investors seeking to front run other more real-money institutional investors,'
By the time a market move is in the news and everyone has published their hot take, it's usually over... π #marketwisdom
Citron likes Root, and they make a compelling case for it...
Tensions with China are weighing on European fashion stocks... A sign of things to come...?