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Green on the screen ahead of the NFP's - risk sentiment still buoyant.

Bringing back 'stimulus hopes' for today's narrative - always a winner...

Market Snapshot

There is at least some stimulus chatter in the news...

A 15 hour mammoth session of amendments and debates led to a breakthrough yesterday - and a headline...

U.S. Senate passes budget plan to advance Biden's $1.9 trillion COVID aid package

It's progress, but there's a long way to go. - Harris had to use her tie-breaking vote to push the legislation through 51-50.

Some points are starting to take shape...

  • Nearly every senator approved a vague amendment to ensure $1,400 stimulus checks would not go to “upper-income taxpayers”
  • Democrats and Republicans approved measures aimed at helping restaurants during the pandemic, raising public awareness about vaccine administration, helping rural hospitals, and not hiking taxes on small businesses during the health crisis.
  • There seemed to be agreement on ensuring undocumented immigrants don’t receive stimulus checks, although Democrats later stripped this out, in addition to provisions expressing support for fracking and the Keystone XL pipeline.

Romney also wants to reform child benefits

Romney’s proposal would provide $4,200 per year for every child up to the age of 6, as well as $3,000 per year for every child age 6 to 17.
Senior Democrats are currently drafting legislation as part of their $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal that would provide $3,600 per year for every child up to the age of 6, as well as $3,000 for every child age 6 to 17.

U.S. Employment - NFP's

Yesterday's weekly jobless figures came in better than expected.

The economy has regained about 12 million of the 22 million jobs that were lost in March and April 2020, although it is still far too early to draw conclusions about either reopening or any 'permanent scarring' to the labour market...

It will still be (at least) a few months until the employment picture clears

What does the recent data mean for NFP's?

Goldman Sachs upped their forecast yesterday...  

"Following the better than expected jobless claims, ADP, and ISM employment component data, we boosted our nonfarm payroll forecast by 75k to +200k"

Economic calendars have the Reuters survey forecast of 50k, but expectations are actually quite a bit higher...

Looking at those expectations, a print of +50k would likely be a disappointment...

Time To Leave TINA?

BofA make the case...

“The long-standing bullish mantra for stocks has been ‘There is no alternative’ or TINA. .. But our rates strategists’ forecast for a 10-yr yield of 1.75% by year-end renders TINA less compelling.”
“A move higher in rates, forecast by our rates team, would likely be most painful for themes that have thrived over the last few decades,”
“Both ends of the equity duration spectrum are at risk: long duration growth stocks that benefited from a falling discount rate could suffer a reversal of fortune. And short duration high-coupon stocks with no room to raise dividends would pale relative to bond income.”

Or, put another way...

Something to look out for later in the year...

Make America Make Again

Spot the theme...

Kia Seeks Partners to Build Apple Car in Georgia

Samsung Eyes Investing Up to $17 Billion in New U.S. Chip Plant

And at the end of last year...

Chipmaker TSMC to set up Arizona subsidiary with $3.5 billion capital

Apple is accelerating their production shift away from China too, with India & Vietnam the main beneficiaries so far...

The World Is Decoupling From China
There is a lot packed into this note. This is longer than I usually send out. There’s a good reason though. This note could frame our investing outlook for the coming years… It’s worth bending the rules. Let’s give your attention span a workout, and dive straight in. China stands increasingly …
MacrodesiacDavid Belle

UK - Government plans Covid vaccine passports to allow foreign holidays

That's the report from The Times, although Boris Johnson later commented that 'there are no current plans to roll out vaccine passports, but will be keeping the situation under review'...

British officials have started work on a “vaccine passport” as Greece prepares to waive quarantine rules for tourists who can prove that they have been inoculated against coronavirus.
A certification system is being planned, The Times has learnt.
The Foreign Office, Department for Transport and Department of Health and Social Care are working on options for travellers to countries that may demand it as a condition of entry.
British tourists may be welcomed to Greece in May provided they can provide proof of inoculation against the coronavirus, tourism officials said.

May keeps coming up, with reports that local elections will be held and the Governments 'internal target' to vaccinate over 50s...

Could May see the return to normal? 🤞

EQUOS drops spot trading fees by up to 40%, zero maker fee for derivatives

Diginex & Equos are going from strength to strength - the first Nasdaq-listed company with a cryptocurrency exchange is making institutional-grade infrastructure available to everyone.

Check out their Lunar New Year competition! Trade on Equos from now until February 8 for the chance to enter 4 prize pools of 10 ETH, 3 BTC, and 12500 USDC...

Want to know more? COO Neil Sheppard had a chat with Anthony Pompliano...