We're now in a technical market. Flow matters, fundamentals are relatively priced in, we now have to see how scared the market is. Have a listen to our thoughts going forward.
Absolute pleasure to be joined by Hedge Fund Advisor Buena Patria today. His view on rates, fx, equities and how they all combine is golden and will seriously help you try to understand your own process better!
💥 We're joined by Adrian Grimaldi Alberts to discuss the SP500, China, and what the state of the market is after the Fed's decision.
Talking UK inflation, Putin's games, and central banks taking their sweet time...
David sees more upside for USDCAD from here. Tim thinks USD will fall after the Fed meeting (unless they're talking four hikes or more in 2022)... (David's definitely wrong) And we're still looking for a LiveNation catalyst from Biden...
Inflation's high & everyone knows it. What's next? Plus some comments on LiveNation & Oil...
David's disappointed that there are no Fed speakers this week. China's demographics are inescapable, and optimism about the future and things being different is likely misplaced.
Non-Farm Payrolls, keeping an eye on high yield credit & the Fed rushing for the exit...
Today we talked Erdogan's unconventional approach to inflation in Turkey, and if the Fed/Powell retiring 'transitory' actually carries any signal at all...
Today's focus: Amid the omicron variant fears, newsflow will be more important than data 👇
Markets were looking sick even before the variant came along...
Risk assets under pressure and we get philosophical about the future...
Today's topics were Apple's autonomous car rumours and what it might mean for Tesla, plus speculation that the RBNZ could hike by 50bps next week
UK employment data came in strong, but is it positive enough for the BoE to hike in December?
Japan's Q3 GDP came in negative. Amidst all of the inflation and growth stories in developed economies Japan is lagging way behind. More stimulus is promised. Will it help?
Ending this week talking about the non-dynamism of the Canadian economy, Trudeau, those poor hedge funds being bullied by central banks and a big week ahead for the pound...
Today we were chatting about inflation (yawn), as it's US CPI day. Then we moved on to the ego, and something we've noticed a lot lately...
Elon had a productive weekend deciding what to do with his Tesla stock by Twitter poll, and then trolling a senator looking to implement a billionaire tax. What's he up to?
Everyone's complaining about the BOE and their 'unreliable' guidance. We don't agree.
So, onto the main event before Friday's main event (NFP's). What will the Fed say/do? Will they blink just as inflation looks (to us) like it's topping out?
It looks like we've reached peak hysteria in the inflation narrative. We're convinced that growth will slow, inflation pressures will moderate and economies will mostly return to the boring Pre-Covid trends
Today we take a look at the massive moves in Short Term Interest Rates and what's driving them. Also, the US employment situation comes into focus at the end of next week.
Today's Q&A included questions on the Aussie Dollar, why Tesla is 'overvalued', and more!
After @jack's hyperinflation hyperbole, Tim and I thought it relevant to chat about hyperinflation and the poor defining of terms associated with it.
Revisiting the BOE after the new chief economists comments ahead of the next meeting... Consumers are a terrible judge of inflation expectations, but the market gauge is soaring too with 10 year breakevens at 25 year highs... And Fed officials are now (kind of) banned from trading...
Are the BOE going to hike if inflation is driven more by higher energy prices which actually weigh on the core economy? Or is this more of a communication strategy to reassure markets that they are ready to act... Expectations management?
Today we're talking about US (un)employment and reading beyond the headlines. It's the perfect time NOT to draw too many conclusions about the future. Whether inflation is 'transitory' or not is not a Twitter debate.
Today's call focused on issues roiling markets, including supply chain pressures, energy markets, and a more depressed consumer (want to buy, can't buy).
Today we focused on hysteria and how it's usually a brilliant contrarian signal for traders. Also, the CCP are stepping in to land auctions, and regional governments want pre-sale funds ring-fenced.
China's economic future won't be defined by bond payments. Replacing Merkel in Germany will be as challenging as replacing Fergie at Man United...
Evergrande made the first onshore bond payment and markets have taken this as positive news How hawkish will the Fed be tonight? Dots & projections should add some volatility.
It's not just Evergrande now. We've seen some huge downside moves in other developers, the commentary is peppered with 'contagion' The full effects will likely be felt further down the line
More about Evergrande and those ripple effects that we could see throughout the Chinese economy & the rest of the world...
China & Evergrande (what else?) & the potential for a lost decade in China. It's not a Lehman Brothers moment, but it will have far-reaching consequences, and if the shadow lending / fraud is as widespread as feared, a fast unwind could be on the cards...
Evergrande situation is dominating social media to start the week, with protests and general unrest the themes of the day Nordstream coming online just as Merkel leaves office & ahead of a very expensive energy winter
Chip shortages are set to continue until the end of 2022, any rate hike clues at Jackson Hole? Everyone knows the taper is coming soon, but keep an eye out for clues separating hike timing from taper. Also, even more China policy changes and talk targeted RRR (rate) cuts...
Central banks not getting their message across Yields not reflecting or compensating for current/future inflation volatility Powell's speech
Risk sentiment saw a complete turnaround into the close Friday and continued today. Is it going to last? Australia are looking to change their approach and 'learning to live' with Covid, New Zealand now have over 100 cases and Tim thinks they'll change strategy soon too.
Growth concerns are everywhere. Commodity prices have rolled over, credit impulse spells doom for the Russell, and doubts over companies continuing confidence that they can pass on higher prices.
The Macrodesiac Veteran joins the call today! From China's raft of new policies to the continuing issues with supply chains and Fed taper talk just as the rate of economic growth slows.
RBNZ's 'hawkish' hold due to one virus case (now 10) was today's focus, and we also talked trading tactics.
Rate hike bets were unwound, NZD lost 1.5% on the session Also, Evergrande's CEO has 'stepped down', and China risks continue to bubble..
Evergrande are back in the headlines for the wrong reasons. CPI peak yesterday? Probably Growth concerns may return...
Looking ahead to the main event: US CPI and the importance of diving into the components, not just the headline numbers... Plus, the bigger picture for inflation
Lending as a recovery barometer, how larger (unproductive) companies have been able to finance via capital markets China look increasingly likely to cut rates, oil & bond yields are moving up together, but not necessarily for the same reasons...
What happened to gold? Also, China's growth forecasts were downgraded by JPM & Goldman for Q3, but it's a case of postponing the growth rather than losing it (much), they say...
Developing a gut feeling for trades Difference between gut feel and impulsiveness The big picture matters more but gets little media coverage Evergrande rapidly going under and the big structural issues in China New Zealand bulls getting ahead of themselves on hikes...
Can EURGBP finally break below 0.85? How hawkish will the BOE actually be? They HAVE to 'taper' if they plan to continue QE until the end of the year... Australian vaccination rate is picking up
Risks to focus on (China crackdown, Gulf tensions, continued supply chain disruptions & EU politics as a longer term theme) Resources for research beyond Bloomberg Analysing the dollar (don't just use DXY) And the end of the UK furlough scheme / employment prospects
'Peak growth' narratives, & structural long term DIS-inflationary pressures. China looks to be following the same path as Japan rather than taking over the world. Shipping is still very broken and to remain that way for a while yet.
Today we focused on the potential stickiness of high unemployment, UK furlough changes, understanding the policy risk when investing in China and some big levels in AUDJPY.
Powell's consistency, the importance of a healthy skepticism, and could the techless wonder be on the verge of a surge?
Today we talked about the FOMC meeting, Big Tech and their big earning beats, especially Apple, plus South Korean exports as a leading indicator for forward EPS growth. Plus China's new nuclear silos (and the ever-present Taiwan risk)...
Another brutal selloff in China & Hong Kong overnight, the shortage of quality assets, Airpods as a standalone business, Tesla actually making more money from vehicle sales than regulatory credits, and the potential rotation from growth into cyclicals.
Today's topics were government Covid policies (are they paying attention to the right data?) a quick update on the China property situation, and Private Equity eyeing up the UK...
Join David & Tim every weekday morning at 9am UK time live in the Discord, or listen back here from 10am each day! We'll be talking about anything that pops up whether it's market, politics or macro related with a special guest every now and then.
