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🔥 The pound is doing unbelievably well, especially against the euro... I am absolutely loving this.
The Big Gamble: well, it's not really a gamble in my eyes.
The UK has had a good vaccine rollout.
A better vaccine rollout means we can get back to normal faster.
The EU has had a poor rollout.
A poor vaccine rollout means they can't get back to normal quickly.
The UK decided to not be a part of the EU's really crappy scheme, and we went our own way, the gamble being that we would vaccinate people with only one dose.
With a pretty high efficacy rate, this means most people are in effect immune versus requiring two doses over a longer period of time, which seems to be the EU's method.
Pressure: this then puts downside force on the euro and strengthens the pound, especially amidst weakening of Brexit risks.
🚫 Tech is tetchy.
The large cap behemoths are facing a bit of malaise over the last 24 hours.
Above is NQ, the NASDAQ futures contract.
This is in the face of higher yields as people reckon inflation is making a comeback (I think you know our stance on that).
JPMorgan's thoughts: bond yields can move higher, but that equities should absorb the move higher well.
So, a short term bit of re-jigging?
That's what we think too.
We reckon the market is looking at the short term a little too much, and the real effects of long term asset prices are to be seen in the mid-term...
Kinda like Arsenal FC's future...
🎈 Party like it's 2008
The US released its jobless claims this afternoon...
It wasn't pretty reading.
Claims for unemployment rose by about 13,000 from the previous week after economists predicted the number would fall to 765,000.
Tough stance: Fed member Daly said yesterday...
“We should be less fearful about inflation around the corner and recognize that fear costs millions of jobs.”
And clearly, she was damn right after today's figures.
Remember though, we look at sustained data - if this does remain as the economy reopens, then we have issues.
If it subsides, then perhaps we can think we're out of the woods.
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