Let me start by reassuring you... this won't just be about football (soccer) or anyone crying over losing the final (although it is relevant).
It's about a conversation I had with one of my oldest friends after the final last night.
After the game he'd told his son not to bother supporting England when he grows up to save himself the pain.
Heat of the moment and a bit nihilistic (he's also an Arsenal fan, so fully aware that it's the hope that kills you)
His son is far too young right now to remember their conversation when he's older but it did strike a chord with me...
It's something we see consistently in financial markets.
These waves of hope and despair wash across the market bow and push them one way or the other, seeking out the weakest hands and punishing them.
So many start trading full of hopes and dreams of striking it rich, and what makes things worse is that many DO have early success (which in turn fuels those hopes and dreams even further)..
Sooner or later, beginners' luck runs out & they go over the edge of Mount Stupid and fall into the Valley Of Despair...
Usually this tumble is brought about by a large loss, doubling down on the wrong trade(s) or just being completely blind-sided by the market.
Good News: Once you're in the valley of despair there's only one way to go...
Bad News: This is where the hard work begins...
And I have a theory that this is where many traders drop out of the market altogether...
They try to avoid the pain.
Ascending the Slope Of Enlightenment is bound to be a painful experience.
That's the entire point..
And avoiding that truth is probably why so few 'make it' in this business.
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It's all about adaptation.
Some can do it, some can't...
Think back to when Southgate was named manager of England...
It basically happened by accident.
The team were 100% rooted in the Valley of Despair after losing to Iceland in 2016 and seeing Sam Allardyce sacked for corruption after only one game in charge...
Things couldn't get any worse, but they definitely got better after Southgate was named boss... 👇👇👇
And why was that?
Southgate arguably got the job based on luck rather than merit, yet he seized the opportunity with both hands...
The team adapted to Southgate's style.
One of the most noticeable things was how he identified so many of the destructive forces that defined the previous eras and addressed them head-on...
He embraced the pain, took the heat from the media, and owned it.
No more pandering to the media to squeeze all of the best players in.
No player was guaranteed a place, no cliques were allowed to form...
Ensuring that the same mistakes were not repeated seemed to be a huge part of the strategy.
And isn't this exactly what traders end up doing?
Every successful trader I know has identified their most destructive mistakes and developed a process to avoid repeating them.
They take their failures, use them to build resilience & increase their odds of staying in the game long enough to 'win'...
Put another way, they become antifragile.
Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure , risk, and uncertainty.
The antifragile loves randomness and uncertainty, which also means— crucially—a love of errors, a certain class of errors.
Antifragility has a singular property of allowing us to deal with the unknown, to do things without understanding them— and do them well. - Nassim Taleb - Antifragile
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