David Belle

By now you know that I have a penchant for selling the Aussie… If you didn’t know that, well, I do. At the end of May last year, I wrote this piece. It explained the extent to which Australian mortgage holders would be affected by the change from interest only mortgages, which had been gorged on … Read more

Well… That was unsurprisingly surprising… The Fed just cut by 100bp to 0%. They’ve really just showed their hand here. They’re running extremely scared. And the worst thing? There’s still the FOMC meeting coming up on Wednesday! Could they possibly go negative here? Well, we’ll see what bonds are saying tomorrow… My thoughts are that … Read more

KING DOLLAR. Everyone’s talking about it right now because it’s showing some serious strength. But why? Well, it’s all down to the Dollar smile theory *IN MY OPINION* and more specifically, that all important USD liquidity. Let’s take a look at what the Dollar smile looks like and what its outcomes are – this chart … Read more

I’ve kept a low profile this week… Purely because I don’t know what’s going on, so why would I want to tell you anything? It would be valueless. Longer term Macrodesiacs know this but for the newer people, it may have seemed odd that I hadn’t given you any information. That’s because I see risk … Read more

I think we need a bit of a distraction, but a distraction that’s extremely important in the current context. I’ve displayed how I manage trades and risk (you can find the relevant steps in the Macrodesiac Discord under risk management, and also in the introductory email sent out when you joined)… But I want to … Read more

The words ‘don’t fight the Fed’ are certainly true, which is why I’m a bit weirded out by how the market is playing out right now. The Fed today cut the base rate by 50bp (half a percent) in a move that was expected, but not expected, well, today. And the outcome is more similar … Read more

I think the title is pretty self explanatory. But central bankers are currently absolutely ecstatic. ‘We can cut! We can buy more assets!’ This virus has just freed them up to do more of the same policy that they’ve been undertaking for the last 10 years… But at a really fast pace this time. Let … Read more

Bit of a shit show out there, isn’t it? We’ve seen a bit of a broad sell off here in equities with the ES and pretty much all global equities indices falling. Take a look at the river of blood across risk today…  Pretty scary, huh? I don’t think that this is a direct result … Read more

We’ve been talking a lot recently about the Corona Virus… About Europe… And about hysteria. But I just want to bring it back a bit to something that I touched on last year. See, through all of the trouble we’re experiencing with the Corona Virus, people have forgotten other problems bubbling under the surface. Let’s … Read more

I’m going to post a few tweets and I want you to deduce the overall point that I’m going to make (before I make it). Click the picture of the tweet to link to original thread.   There’s the three tweets. Tell me what you reckon I’m going to say? … … … Trading is … Read more