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I've just sat through the Bank of England press conference. It was so riveting that I briefly had to 'rest my eyes'...
If you want to catch up on the key points without the waffle, this excellent thread will see you right 👇👇👇
One of the most interesting points (to me, at least!) was Governor Bailey's comment:
"If we stick to the 1.5% criterion for reversing QE, we're effectively declaring we were never doing it."
An admission that rates won't reach 1.5% again?
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So,that $1 trillion that nobody wants…
Well, it's just sitting at the banks according to this report in the Wall Street Journal:
Companies aren’t actually drawing the money into their bank accounts just yet. Businesses are already stuffed with cash, and supply-chain issues and labor shortages have crimped their ability to spend it. But bankers say the activity in recent months is evidence that businesses are planning to turn on the spending spigot. That could help the economy shoot higher.
Concerns surrounding the Delta variant will not help confidence, and the infamous liquidity trap is a genuine risk, given the already high levels of debt in the private sector.
Now, according to Jim Glassman, the head economist at JPMorgan’s commercial bank, businesses are planning ambitious spending projects, especially on automation and technology.
This is going to be a huge question for the coming months.
Will lending turn into spending?
We are now entering the phase when policy support is being withdrawn.
Virus outbreaks in Southeast Asia will not help the supply chain issues either.
Although the chip shortage is expected to improve, the impact on car production will still be felt well into 2022...
News flow is likely to be bumpy through the rest of the year.
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Business travel was declared dead, just jump on a zoom instead they said...
Let's presume that's true and business travel goes the way of the dodo.
Then consider these stats... 👇👇👇
Someone needs a new business model...
Perhaps that's why United Airlines are expanding so aggressively.
Of the four big names, United have the lowest domestic market share.
Airline travel is recovering...
US mobility data is encouraging too...
And how about that RevPAR guys?!
RevPAR = Revenue Per Available Room (Yes, I had to google it because I'm dense), and here's the overall occupancy 👇👇
All heading in the right direction (except China)...
“The administration will strictly restrict cross-border movements ” Liu Haitao, an immigration official, told the same press conference.
He said controls on entry and exit permits would be tightened and there will be a temporary freeze on issuing passports for “non-urgent or unnecessary travel”.